Horn of Africa Analyst. Security. Politics. Featured in @ForeignPolicy @France24 @DailySabah and more. Founder @DailyJubba.
Joined September 2016
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Breaking Somalia apart by recognizing Somaliland won’t bring peace or stability, it would do the opposite.
I make the case in my latest piece for @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/09…
Ahmed Cadde retweeted
Well, it hosted the first such race in the entire African continent, in 1938 no less!
Check Mogadiscio Circuit. 2nd frame is the winner’s car.
Ahmed Cadde retweeted
Rubio's version of this call is very different from Abiy's version. Rubio warned Abiy (and others) to refrain from "cross-border incursions" and to de-escalate the conflict with Eritrea because the region can't tolerate more war. (Abiy's version makes no mention of any of this.)
I held a very fruitful telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State @marcorubio on key bilateral, regional and multilateral issues of mutual interest.
Our discussion is proof to the commitment of both countries in translating the enduring relationship between Ethiopia and the United States into a more strategic and practical partnership.
I welcome the assurance of continued U.S. support for Ethiopia and our shared commitment to advancing bilateral cooperation and addressing regional and multilateral priorities.
The annual mass hysteria among the citizens of northwestern Somalia comes this time after Trump used Somaliland to mock Somali Minnesotans.
If Trump had plans to recognize Somaliland, he would have done it already. The US has not changed its stance and will not.
To understand this impending war you have to understand Abiy’s psyche. In his mind, he was sent to be Ethiopia’s king and reestablish the Ethiopian Empire.
He frames Red Sea access not only as a trade issue but also as a destiny tied to his own sense of mission
ALT Excerpt from Tom Gardner’s book “The Abiy Project”
Ethiopia says it must defend itself against Eritrea's 'all-out invasion' reut.rs/4jwlggr reut.rs/4jwlggr
The sudden, sharp rise in anti Somali rhetoric over the past week is not by chance. As the midterm elections draw closer, Republicans are ramping up their attacks, as seen here, with Majority Whip Tom Emmer referring to Somalis as “enemy combatants”
Ahmed Cadde retweeted
NEW 🇪🇷🚨🇪🇹 | The Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War geolocated alleged images and videos of Eritrean forces in northern Ethiopia on October 7 to Idaga Hamus, which is roughly 12 miles south of Adigrat in Ethiopia's Tigray region.
CTP cannot verify the time the images were taken or the identity of the personnel in the picture, although at least one open-source analyst has assessed that the images are from 2024 or later—after the end of the Tigray war in 2022.
Multiple Western outlets, including Agence-France Press, Deutsche Welle, and Reuters, also cited locals in Adigrat who claimed that Eritrean forces had moved through the town on October 7.
More details and sources below⬇️
Ahmed Cadde retweeted
Ethiopian state media published a notably venomous critique of the Somali president’s decision to co-sign a joint declaration with Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea, a grouping that Addis Ababa has increasingly viewed as hostile. Abiy isn’t happy.
Via @EthiopianNewsA
The conflict taking place in the Afar region over the past week has perhaps been the casus belli for Abiy to finally invade Eritrea after two years of banging the drums of war.
The looming invasion has nothing to do with sovereignty or territory, but everything to do with Assab.
𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐄𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐬𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐚, 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝟏𝟎 𝐄𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐄𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
ETHIOPIA - 🔥Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara, #Eritrea, citing what it described as 𝐸𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑎’𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 toward #Ethiopia.
The ministry also declared 10 Eritrean diplomats in Addis Ababa 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎 𝑛𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑎, accusing them of engaging in activities that pose a threat to Ethiopia’s national security and violate the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.
The diplomats have reportedly been given 48 hours to leave the country.
Relations between the two countries have deteriorated significantly since Abiy Ahmed publicly raised Ethiopia’s demand for "omenrship" to a Red Sea port, including his irredentist remarks about the Eritrean port of Assab and his ambition to establish a naval force.
Eritrea has viewed such demands as a threat to its sovereignty, while critics have described them as reflecting an expansionist agenda.
This would not only be a humanitarian disaster but a catastrophe for Abiy’s already fragile government.
Winning a war on multiple fronts is incredibly difficult but it is outright impossible with a fragmented county ready to break apart and go their separate ways.
If reports of Col Gabre being transferred to Eritrea are true, the Federal Government of Somalia owes it to its people to request the extradition of the man known locally as the “Butcher of Mogadishu”.
🚨 URGENT ALERT
Sources close to the matter say a decision has been made to transfer detained Tigrayan leaders from Mekelle to Senafe, Eritrea, including:
• Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede
• Esayas Tadesse
• Col. Tewolde Embeb
• Col. Gebregziabher Alemseged
Given their longstanding tensions with Eritrean authorities, this raises grave concerns for their safety.
Diplomatic and humanitarian actors must act urgently to establish their whereabouts, secure access, and demand guarantees for their safety and treatment.
In addition to these horrific crimes, Gabre felt a sense of invincibility and served as the de facto President of Somalia. Every major player nation couldn’t lift a finger without his blessing.
This came to an abrupt end in 2017 when TPLF weakened & Somalia elected a new Pres.
After HSM’s failed gambit in Baidoa and with the conflict raging, he now reaches out to Abiy to mend relations with Laftagareen and his army, just days after suffering heavy losses.
Unfortunately for HSM, Abiy is facing his own problems, and they’re much bigger than elections.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed welcomes Somali President Sheikh Hassan Mohamud at Bole International Airport this morning.
#PMOEthiopia
Ahmed Cadde retweeted
During my tenure as Somalia's Ambassador to the EU, in April 2014, Foreign Minister Abdirahman Beyle arrived in Brussels as head of the advance team before the arrival of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for the 4th EU-AU Summit. This was his first trip overseas since he was just nominated, and it was the first time I had ever seen him.
Since I was also non-resident Ambassador to France, I decided to take him to Paris for the weekend. The reason for the trip to Paris was to show him firsthand the deteriorating conditions of the two Somali diplomatic buildings in Paris.
Somalia had two diplomatic buildings in Paris. One is the Chancery located near the most famous street in Paris, the Champs Elysees. The other is the Ambassador's residence located at the outskirt of Paris in Vacinet, twenty minutes away from the Embassy.
For the entire train ride, we spoke about Somalia's unfortunate situation and how the country has collapsed because it has no leaders willing to defend it. He was telling me about the nationalist songs he had written himself. I was really impressed with the man. I thought to myself, this is a rare principled man. This man will serve the nation well.
We were picked up by Ahmed Shire, one of the diplomats, and drove straight to our embassy in Paris, a building that had been left in total ruin. The moment we walked in, Dr Beyle placed his hands on the crumbling wall and broke down in tears. I was overcome with emotion and my own tears began to flow. It touched me emotionally in a deep way.
A man nicknamed Tuute, the Military Attache who had lived in that building since 1991 to guard it and save all the diplomatic documents from being stolen or destroyed, looked at my tears and said to me, this man is a con artist. Do not trust him. I told him, do not judge him. This is a true patriot.
I was wrong. Tuute was right.
The man who wept over the ruins of our embassy now campaigns over the division of the country itself.
Somalia’s political class is the sleaziest and most pathetic it has ever been. Whether it’s Beyle or Robow, the nation’s leadership is made up of men with no morals, principles, or beliefs, who are willing to switch sides the second their personal interests are threatened
