Ag Watch Market Advisors

Grains were lower today from tensions rising between President Trump and Canada. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff if they enter a free trade deal with China. However, reports have followed of Canada backing down. agwatch.biz

Grains firmer heading into the weekend. Beans were also underpinned from hope of continued purchases by China. However, Brazil is the cheapest source, and they are in the early stages of harvesting a record crop. agwatch.biz

Dec corn fell to 457 last week and recovered as shown on the weekly chart. Since mid-Oct, it has been confined in a range between 451-473.5. Both the weekly and daily indicators are at a neutral level, meaning the market continues to lack direction. That said...www.agwatch.biz

The grains recovered today following last week’s weakness. Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela had little impact on the grains, but gold and stocks were higher. Right now, news is mostly spotty as traders are looking ahead to the crop report on January 15th. agwatch.biz

The focus in December corn will soon turn to planting intentions this spring. Last fall, in their outlook forum, the USDA projected corn acres for 2026 to decline 3.7 million to 95.0 million. Their estimate will be updated in next month’s outlook forum. agwatch.biz

Since mid-November, the bulls have been put through the wringer, as traders are coming to grips with the realization that China’s agreement to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans is not materializing. agwatch.biz/news

The grains were lower yesterday as there is very little fresh news with traders closing positions ahead of year end. This is the last full week of trading for the year. Meanwhile, weather remains favorable in South America.

Last week, November 2026 soybeans rebounded to 1130, but could not surpass the high at 1131.5 as shown on the weekly chart. From here, they fell to 1098.25. agwatch.biz

March soybeans mustered a bounce to 1138 today and were followed by a break to 1125.25. Resistance is at today’s high followed by 1151. If today’s low cannot hold, we are likely headed to 1117, 1100, or the gap at 1083-1076, possibly lower. agwatch.biz

Dec 26 corn will probably continue to drift aimlessly until Jan when the focus will turn to spring planting estimates and long-range weather. A double top is visible at the highs of 470 and 469.25 as can be seen on the weekly chart available for members. agwatch.biz

The recovery from the low at 1048.25 in Nov 2026 soybeans continues with the market rising to 1114. Currently, the momentum indicators, on both a daily and weekly basis, are overbought suggesting a top is probably close at hand. agwatch.biz

Grains firmer as enthusiasm continues over China agreeing to buy 12 million tons of soybeans for the Nov-Dec period and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, as mentioned last week, the agreement is non-binding, and China has a history of non- performance.

December 2026 corn rebounded to 469.25 last week posting a double top with the September high at 470. The short-term pattern shows that, unless there is a decline below 460, the prospect exists for rising past 470 to 474 or 480. agwatch.biz

November 2026 soybeans have rallied in conjunction with the front months on reports that China is willing to buy U.S. soybeans. Since bottoming a few weeks ago at 1048.25, they have risen to 1102.75 in the overnight session. agwatch.biz

July 2026 wheat rebounded to 545.5 this week following the modest upside reversal from the contract low posted at 533.5 last week, as shown on the weekly chart. agwatch.biz

Nov 2026 soybeans rose to 1090.25 last week, as shown on the weekly chart, where a downside reversal was posted that ended the rally from the low at 1037.25, and possibly from the contract low at 983 as well. If so...visit agwatch.biz for your daily commodity email.

Winter wheat planting is getting underway and is 11 percent complete compared to 13 percent a year ago, which is par for the average. For more detail and daily emails, visit agwatch.biz for a 30-day trial!

Weekly momentum indicators are extremely oversold, and the chart pattern shows the sell-off from the high at 650.25 might be finished. For greater evidence of this being the case, rising beyond 572 is necessary. Get your 30-day trial at agwatch.biz for daily info.

December 2026 corn has recovered from the low at 440.75 with the market rising to 462.75 last week as shown on the weekly chart. From here....visit agwatch.biz for your 30-day free trial!

Soybeans have come under pressure as a trade deal has still not developed with China. As it stands now, it may be Nov or Dec before one occurs, if then. Meanwhile, export inspections last week were slightly better than expected at ....for more, visit agwatch.biz/news.