Elevating Ethiopian Strategic Thinking and Culture. Analysis and Policy Recommendations.
Addis Ababa | Washington, D.C.
Joined April 2026
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
After the U.S. declined direct military intervention despite Saudi requests, Riyadh and Washington are priming Egypt for a larger role against Houthis in Yemen. Washington has reason to expect its $50+ billion, decades-long strategic military investment in Egypt to pay off.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is a veteran of the Ethiopia-Eritrea war and peace. He first confronted the Eritrea problem as a soldier, responding to Isaias’s 1998 aggression. Twenty years later, he arrived in Eritrea as Ethiopia’s new prime minister, ending decades of stalemate and earning the Nobel Peace Prize.
The peace did not endure as interests diverged. Abiy now carries the lessons of both war and failed peace with the regime in Eritrea. What comes next?
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Ethiopia may not initiate war over Assab, but repeated Eritrean involvement in Ethiopia’s internal affairs could force a response from a defensive position. Assab may not trigger the war, but could become central to the settlement that ends it. PM Abiy Ahmed’s reference to Israel’s control of the Golan Heights gives insight into the strategic thinking in Addis Abeba.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Op-Ed: Robel Tilahun argues that Ethiopia’s next constitutional settlement should move Article 39 beyond its one-directional right of secession and establish a lawful framework for reintegration, accession, and voluntary political union-a process through which an external political entity is admitted into the Ethiopian federation.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Each year, Eritrean teenagers are bused from Asmara and other towns to a make shift military training center - Sawa. Passage through Sawa marks the end of secondary school and the point at which the Eritrean state assumes control over the transition from adolescence to adulthood.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Sudan’s crisis is often reduced to a war between SAF and RSF, the rivalry between their two generals and their foreign backers. The deeper challenge is Sudan’s missing center: a functional civilian political structure. Sudan’s future will depend on whether a credible civilian center can emerge and reduce the dominance of military institutions and political Islamist networks over the state. adiss-strategies.org/publica…
Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
African Union’s False Dichotomy Trap in Sudan-AU is trapped in its own contradiction in Sudan. Since the 2021 coup, it has kept Sudan suspended under its anti-coup policy while increasingly treating SAF-controlled institutions in Port Sudan as the country’s authority. In effect, the AU condemns the coup while adapting to its outcome, sidelining civilian actors in the process.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
In an aide-mémoire addressed to diplomatic missions and international partners on 3 June, the TPLF warned that a return to catastrophic conflict was no longer a hypothetical risk and could carry significant regional consequences. The document called on foreign governments and international organizations to intervene, cautioning that “failure to act cannot be regarded as neutrality. It would amount to acquiescence in the further deterioration of an already intolerable situation and increase the likelihood of a return to full-scale war.”
The warning came as the TPLF leadership aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael moved to replace the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and restore elements of the pre-war governing structure, a step widely viewed as a violation of the political transition framework established under the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) signed in Pretoria, South Africa.
Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
In latest maneuver, TPLF approved senior appointments, naming TPLF deputy chairman Amanuel Assefa as vice president and head of the Justice Bureau. ADISS in its strategic publication covered how TPLF systematically replaced TIRA authorities and what it means for COHA (Pretoria Agreement) -Read.
The structures that reemerged inside Tigray regional state remain directly connected to the origins of the war itself. Many of the political and military figures reassumed influence belonged to the wartime leadership associated with the November 2020 attack on the Ethiopian National Defense Force Northern Command and the subsequent campaign that nearly brought the war to Addis Ababa. TIRA-TPLF-TDF Collusion, Internal Realignment, or a Silent Coup?
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
In an unprecedented case of foreign electoral interference, Eritrean and Turkish-aligned networks amplified narratives focused on insecurity, insurgency, and political distrust while portraying Ethiopia’s election as illegitimate regardless of voter participation.
Coordinated amplification across state-linked, proxy, and diaspora accounts created an information environment resembling gray-zone influence operations rather than ordinary foreign commentary.
ADISS has collected credible evidence of coordinated foreign influence operations targeting Ethiopia’s electoral process, including disinformation campaigns, covert political influence, cyber activity, and efforts to undermine public confidence in state institutions. Such activities fall within the mandate of Ethiopian security and intelligence institutions to investigate.
ADISS is prepared to support credible investigative efforts and share relevant findings and evidence with appropriate authorities.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
54 million Ethiopians headed to the polls and asserted ownership over their political future despite threats of violence and coordinated information warfare. EPLF networks stood at the center in one of the most aggressive and orchestrated psychological operations in Ethiopia’s recent political history. Here are the others and why.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
SAF Is the New Camel Cairo Rides.
The Horn of Africa now functions as an integrated strategic theater where Sudan's civil war, Nile politics, Eritrean security calculations, Somali fragmentation, Red Sea competition and Ethiopia's internal stabilization increasingly interact within the same geopolitical system.
SAF became the camel Egypt rides because Sudan allows Cairo to project pressure across difficult regional terrain while preserving strategic distance from direct military confrontation with Ethiopia.
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
The collapse of distinction between the State, Government and People in Ethiopian political discourse is a dangerous trend. A healthy nation depends on keeping these boundaries clear
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Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies retweeted
Somalia is facing its most serious legitimacy crisis in years as President's constitutional mandate is set to expire on May 15, 2026, Parliament’s mandate already expired in April. Turkey has strong influence over Mogadishu, which increasingly ties Ankara to survival of the incumbent. Stake for Ethiopia?
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