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Themes over tickers. Long-term over quick trades.
Thesis/thematic investor here, with a bias toward long-term compounders. Names I am super bullish on: $ANET, $HOOD, $RDDT, $AXON, $CRDO.
26, full-time corporate, full-time obsessed with building generational wealth one thesis at a time.
Follow along my investing journey.
$SPCX just hit escape velocity. Revenue more than doubled and SpaceX swung from a loss to $4.4B in profit.
Here's how my 3 watch items played out:
1. AI: This is the inflection. Revenue nearly tripled in one quarter to $7.6B and the segment went from a $1.26B loss to a $431M profit. Total Q1 revenue is guided to $33B to $37B, so it's just getting started.
2. Capex & FCF: SpaceX spent $19.6B this quarter and plans to spend up to $40B next quarter. That's a crazy amount of money, but they are investing to keep up with demand. FCF is still negative, but new compute pays for itself in under a year, so the spending starts funding itself soon.
3. Starlink: Still a beast of a profit engine. Operating margin climbed to 45%, up from 38% a year ago. Mobile is the sleeper here. 22M monthly users, up 37% in a quarter and the new spectrum deal could open up another big growth opportunity by 2028.
Lastly, $TSLA and $SPCX have formed special committees to discuss a merger. Elon seems to like the idea, but nothing is agreed yet.
What did you guys think about $SPCX earnings, and is a $TSLA $SPCX merger a good idea?
$SPCX reports tomorrow after close. Here are 3 things I am watching:
1. AI: Nearly 60% of revenue expected and I want to see the losses shrinking
2. Capex & FCF: $18.4B spent in Q2 and Q3 capex is expected to exceed quarterly revenue. FCF matters more than EPS
3. Starlink: This is the profit engine and I am watching margins and mobile updates.
Everyone’s chasing AI stocks.But one of the more interesting AI infrastructure plays might be a 100+ year old company best known for Post It notes.
My thesis on $MMM:
1. The turnaround is real.
Q2 organic sales up 5.4%. EPS up 11%. Record 24.9% operating margin. $1.3B in FCF. Full year EPS guidance raised to $8.80 to $8.95.
2. AI data centers are a new growth engine.
AI data centers need thousands of fiber connections, and installing them is slow. 3M’s Expanded Beam Optics makes them faster and more durable, cutting install time by about 85% in testing.
$MSFT was the first big cloud provider to use it in Azure.
3. Now Amazon is in.
3M gave $AMZN the right to buy up to 3.16M shares, but only if Amazon buys 3M’s data center products, up to $6B over 7 years. If Amazon follows through, this could be a meaningful growth opportunity for 3M’s data center business.
Earnings drop tomorrow. I am watching whether the turnaround holds and how fast data centers ramp.
Is $MMM the most overlooked AI play in the market, or is the upside already priced in?
$AXON isn't only a taser company, it's a software driven compounder. 10 straight quarters of 30%+ growth, 95%+ of revenue from subscription customers, 126% net retention and $15.1B already contracted.
It's at a really attractive valuation and the low price has nothing to do with how well the business is performing.
Here's what I ended up buying this morning in my family portfolio on the anniversary of Black Monday.
I added to $AXON as it trades below 30x EV/EBITDA near its cheapest valuation since 2019 while continuing to build my $CBRS position.
Both are ways I'm gaining exposure to next phase of AI but for very different reasons with Axon becoming control center of public safety and turning cheaper AI into higher-value software while Cerebras benefits as AI agents make inference speed super valuable.
The AI buildout isn’t just GPUs.
Bigger AI clusters need more networking and hyperscalers are picking Ethernet to connect them.
That’s $ANET home turf. It sells the switches that tie the whole cluster together.
That is why $ANET is one of my largest individual holdings
One of the most overlooked parts of the AI buildout is that Ethernet switching is growing 49% annually versus 36% for AI servers as larger GPU clusters require increasingly powerful networking.
That’s great for $MRVL, $ALAB, $CRDO and $AVGO because every new generation of AI chips needs faster connections to move data between GPUs, memory and entire server racks.
$ANET is also interesting because it holds ~25% of AI Ethernet switching as hyperscalers are adopting Ethernet to connect massive AI clusters.
Took my wife to Aritzia today. She spent $300 and the store was packed like it always is.
Peter Lynch said invest in what you know. I don’t know much about women’s fashion, but I know where my money went.
Might be time to look at $ATZ.TO . It’s beating $QQQ YTD, but unfortunately Robinhood doesn’t let me buy it.
Do you invest in wife/girlfriend stocks?
Earnings that I am watching this week:
$META, $SPCX: AI capex
$LRCX, $TXN: AI chip machines vs everyday chips. Is demand spreading beyond AI?
$NOK: data center optical orders
$BE: AI power demand
What's on your list?
#earnings for the week of October 19, 2026
earningswhispers.com/calweek
$NFLX $TSLA $SPCX $CLF $BE $ISRG $IBM $META $GE $GM $LRCX $ABT $LMT $RNG $RTX $MXL $TXN $TCBI $NOK $FITB $CACI $AXP $NEE $NOC $STLD $WDC $MSCI $WDFC $CMCSA $ARGX $MMM $MEDP $PEGA $SMBK $SRCE $SLB $TSCO $T $VICR $UAL $NLY $HAL $HAS $HBAN $KARO $AGNC $ALLY $ALV $CME $CCI
Just another reminder that there is no slowdown on AI demand. There is not enough compute and people are selling off neoclouds. Make it make sense
Ben Horowitz says $AMZN CEO told him AI compute is sold out “beyond 2028” as demand continues to outpace available capacity.
That tells you how much of AI buildout now depends on getting enough power, cooling and data centers online rather than just securing more $NVDA or $AMD GPUs.
It’s also why I think drawdowns in $NBIS, $IREN and $CRWV are overdone because new capacity could find demand quickly while existing GPUs keep generating revenue longer than market expects.
Serious question for $SOFI holders: what actually stops a competitor from taking SoFi's customers?
SoFi has 3 potential moats. But each has a weakness.
1. The bank charter
$45.5B in member deposits gives SoFi a funding advantage, saving an estimated $713M a year versus borrowing from big banks. That's more than its entire annualized profit.
The weakness: deposits aren't permanent. Customers can chase higher rates elsewhere and big banks pay almost nothing on checking because customers stay out of habit.
2. The everything app
15.8M members. 24.4M products. 51% of new products come from existing members, up from 35% a year ago.
Cross selling is cheap growth, and every extra product makes each customer worth more.
The weakness: more products don't automatically mean more loyalty. Refinancing a loan or moving a brokerage account is still relatively easy.
3. Galileo
SoFi's technology platform sells financial infrastructure to other companies, creating a business beyond consumer banking.
The weakness: competition is fierce, and one client can move the numbers. Tech platform revenue fell 23% from a year ago after Chime fully left the platform. Was Chime a one off, or will other clients leave too?
The bull case is that these three pieces feed each other. More members bring more deposits, which means cheaper funding and better economics. That lets SoFi launch more products, which brings in even more members.
But a flywheel only becomes a moat if competitors can't easily replicate the economics.
Is $SOFI building a durable competitive advantage, or just a great fintech business in a competitive industry?
Days like today are when you find out what you actually own.
Holding is easy when everything’s green. When your portfolio is bleeding, the only thing that keeps you from hitting sell is knowing why you bought it in the first place.
If you can’t explain the business in a couple sentences and dont really understand the business, red days are going to be really hard for you.
What’s the one stock you would never sell on a day like this?
The neoclouds are getting sold off. Here’s what you actually own.
A neocloud buys $NVDA GPUs, plugs them into power and rents them to AI companies by the hour. Think AWS, built only for AI.
$CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN all do this differently. Three factors decide the winners: power, cost of debt and customers.
1. CoreWeave
- Rents massive GPU clusters to top AI labs, mostly for training
- Expanding into inference, running models for users
-$2.58B revenue last quarter, up 112%, with a $104B backlog
-Power: 1.5 GW live, the most of the three. 4.2 GW contracted
-Debt: 8.3% effective rate, the highest, but down from 12.1% in early 2025
-Customers: Microsoft, Meta, Anthropic and Jane Street
-The bet: the most proven, but the most exposed if AI demand cools
2. Nebius
-Sells a full AI cloud: GPUs plus its own software and developer tools
-Power: roughly 250 MW live. Over 3.5 GW contracted
-Debt: 5.5% effective rate and rising, funded mostly by convertibles
-Customers: $MSFT and $META carry most of the weight
-The bet: software survives once GPUs stop being scarce
3. IREN
-Bitcoin miner exiting mining by year end to go all in on AI
-Owns the land, power, buildings and GPUs
-$4B in contracted annual revenue
-Power: 4.5 GW secured, the most of the three. Only 480 MW of AI capacity this year
-Debt: 1.7% effective rate, the cheapest
-Customers: a broad list, but $MSFT leads a few contracts that make up the majority
-The bet: power and cheap capital decide who scales
The selloff isn’t about demand. It’s about how much they are borrowing to keep up.
My picks are $NBIS and $IREN.
Scale, software, or power. Which neocloud are you buying on this dip?
No cap this is the only stock in my portfolio that is green $ZTS
$TSM just printed another monster quarter.🔥
Revenue up 41%. EPS up 69%. They keep 51 cents of profit on every dollar.
Full year growth outlook raised to ~44% but capex is flat. They are growing faster without spending more.
Sales of their newest, most advanced chips roughly tripled in one quarter. Customers want the cutting edge and $TSM makes almost all of it.
There are still no signs the AI buildout is slowing. It's shifting into a higher gear.
TSMC $TSM Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $46.72B (Est. $44.93B) 🟢; +41.2% YoY
🔹 EPS: $4.60 (Est. $4.48) 🟢; per ADR
🔹 Gross Margin: 66.4% (Est. 66.3%) 🟡
🔹 Oper Margin: 58.7% (Est. 57.7%) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: NT$763.06B (Est. NT$737.9B) 🟢
🔹 Net Profit Margin: 51.1%
Revenue by Platform:
🔹 HPC: 68%; +22% QoQ
🔹 Smartphone: 21%; +10% QoQ
🔹 IoT: 4%; +5% QoQ
🔹 Automotive: 4%; +23% QoQ
🔹 DCE: 1%; -12% QoQ
🔹 Others: 2%; -10% QoQ
Technology Mix (Wafer Revenue):
🔹 2nm: 8%
🔹 3nm: 33%
🔹 5nm: 28%
🔹 7nm: 10%
🔹 7nm and below: 79%
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Wafer Shipments: 4,476 Kpcs; +9.6% YoY
🔹 North America: 79% of revenue
🔹 ROE: 45.5%
🔹 OpEx: 7.8% of revenue
🔹 Inventory Days: 82; -5 days QoQ
🔹 CapEx: $13.84B; $40.64B YTD
🔹 Free Cash Flow: NT$476.56B
Key Updates:
🔸 Gross margin was 1.3 ppts lower than 2Q26, primarily due to the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of N2 technology.
🔸 Non-operating items were a gain of NT$34.59B, vs NT$95.83B in 2Q26, which included disposal and mark-to-market gains on VIS shares.
🔸 Diluted EPS NT$29.43 (+68.7% YoY); revenue NT$1,494.24B (+50.9% YoY)
$RKLB Neutron slips to 2027 and after $ASTS another space stock is getting hit and here is how it impacts my thesis:
Electron is a small rocket. Neutron is the reusable medium lift rocket that lets Rocket Lab compete directly with $SPCX for bigger payloads and bigger contracts. Pair that with their satellite business and you get the end to end space company thesis.
The delay pushes back their biggest growth lever. But space systems already has an $816M SDA contract and Electron keeps flying, so the business isn't standing still.
My thesis is that $RKLB becomes the second end to end space company. This delays it, but it doesn't break it.
Are you adding here or waiting for Neutron to fly?
$RKLB has pushed Neutron’s inaugural launch into 2027 delaying its entry into the medium-lift launch market.
Of all the days for $CIFR to announce a capital raise. 2 days after my CSP got assigned and on a day AI infrastructure is already getting sold off. Brutal timing.
Not gonna lie, it stings. But I sold that put at a price I was fine owning it at and nothing about why I own it changed today.
They have got signed leases with hyperscalers and a big HPC backlog and they are basically becoming an AI data center landlord. You need capital to build that. This is part of the plan.
Still holding and hoping that this turns around.
$CIFR is down over 12% after announcing plans to raise up to $1B in 0% convertible debt to fund Barber Lake and expand its AI data center pipeline.
Cipher is essentially using low interest financing to secure more sites with access to power before hyperscaler demand catches up.























