I teach people to make money in financial markets. **I will never contact anyone via DM and ask for $$ or offer to manage $$. Anyone doing so is a scammer.
New York City
Joined June 2009
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I haven't been on X much lately. My feed is full of people asking Grok for trading techniques, backtests, or market analysis. This is basically bringing a spoon to a gunfight.
Is this as common as my feed makes it seem? How did this become a thing??
Poor market breadth predicts crashes. At least, that's what you've been taught.
I tested 9 breadth measures against 35 years of market data, including subsequent returns and major declines. The conventional wisdom doesn't hold up. And something changed around 2010.
The Breadth Myth: What Market Data Really Says
adamhgrimes.com/the-breadth-…
Quiet markets tend to stay quiet.
Big volatility shocks tend to cool off—but remain unusually volatile. And downward moves in stock indexes contain information about what comes next.
I tested some very old trading assumptions against the data.
Volatility Shocks and What Follows
adamhgrimes.com/volatility-s…
Volatility has a memory.
Quiet markets tend to stay quiet. Volatile markets tend to stay volatile. Until they don’t—and those transitions are where things get interesting.
A look at ATR, volatility persistence, distributions, and what the data actually says:
adamhgrimes.com/volatility-h…
The goal isn’t to find the perfect diet, training program, or health protocol.
It’s to build a process that notices when you’re wrong and keeps adapting.
That idea came straight from trading.
Follow-up to “How Trading Saved My Life”:
adamhgrimes.com/the-experime…
How Trading Saved My Life
adamhgrimes.com/how-trading-…
I’ve never written on 9/11, and I’m not really going to start today.
This day has always been strange, heavy, difficult.
Or maybe simply because it’s a beautiful and haunting work of art that touches the heart of terror and loss.
The poem: poetryfoundation.org/poems/4…
The poet reading it: youtube.com/watch?v=H3anIr7v…
Maybe because, even in the brief years I spent in that industry, I saw some of the people I knew in this poem. Maybe because of the musicality of the language.
Years ago I stumbled across a poem I’ve returned to many times.
Maybe because it remembers people mostly forgotten. Maybe because, had I stayed in the business and built a career cooking professionally, those would have been my people.
When markets don't favor your trading style, it often makes sense to reduce trading activity and frequency. But there's a hidden cost to that, which isn't always apparent.
Link in comments
Leftovers can be nice too!
Ribeye with au poivre sauce, air fryer fries (practically a health food... They use a few teaspoons of olive oil), and a green salad.
New: a three-part sequence on Pascal’s Wager.
Many think it’s about logic; some think it’s a proof of God. It’s neither.
The arc goes logic → disproof → something else entirely.
Start at the beginning ↓ (link in comments)
You can also find the whole First Fire project mapped here adamhgrimes.com/first-fire/
