PAA Research is an independent research firm that provides investment ideas backed by extensive fundamental analysis and primary research.
Joined April 2009
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I've been thinking about this convo on the @theallinpod in mid-August a lot over the past 24 hours. Everyone's trying to get a finer point on the Anthropic ARR (meaning RUN RATE, not recurring), but it's conspicuous that @GavinSBaker who's commentary is always thought provoking, felt the need to create such a high bar for Ant ($400-$500B ARR exiting 2027).
Then @altcap quickly realized that creating this kind of bar when the biz was clearly slowing in August (see @tryramp data) could create a real expectations problem. Now it seems like the street has lowered expectations for 2027 exit rates of $200-$250B based on the idea that maybe Ant could come out at 10x that? Candidly even getting to $200B ARR exiting 2027 seems challenging given the magnitude of competition and let's call it measured investment in AI from enterprises, but I guess we'll see what their next models bring.
I know we stand on the cusp of AGI, humanoid robots, and maybe even flying cars, but to me cropping an image in Word and moving my cursor from one screen to another still feels like MAGIC.
Every.... single.... time....
PAA Research retweeted
Vans is showing signs of life again.
This is exactly what I want to see as a $VFC shareholder.
More brand heat. More cultural relevance. More people actually wanting to wear the product.
The turnaround ultimately shows up in the numbers, but it starts here.
Maybe I'm being too simplistic, but it seems like it's going to be hard for the market to have a sustained move higher if $GS doesn't start acting better.
Sign of the times department: $LRHC the one high flying residential real estate brokerage that grew to more than 3,000 agents as it tried a different version of the MLM model successfully implemented by $AGNT, has decided to PIVOT to....
You guessed it, a neo-cloud. The company announced that it acquired $NVDA B300s today and is pursuing strategic alternatives for its real estate division.
If only there were signs....
Following the action in $FICO, it seems this post from @pulte has drawn increased investor attention to $STC $FAF $ORI $FNF and their title insurance pricing policies. We have had a short call on $STC and $FAF for some time. There's no doubt there are several technology options that could lower title insurance costs (AI) if not eliminate the need for it altogether (blockchain). You already have many brokers offering bundled solutions for title, mortgage, and advisory. Lots of pressure on these busineses.
In your view, what is the MOST IMPORTANT factor that is driving this continued sell-off in 10-year treasuries (rising yield)?
9%Accelerated GDP growth
45%Inflation re-acceleration
19%AI fixed income issuance
28%Higher crude/diesel price
69 votes • Final resultsAnd so will $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG, they will all attempt to protect their walled gardens. Nothing new or surprising there.
SHOTS FIRED. Microsoft will go after Meta's Muse!
From @alexeheath 's interview of @satyanadella :
"He wants to bring Autopilot’s AI chief of staff to your personal life, too. Built on a hardened version of OpenClaw, the agent gets its own computer, workspace, and memory to work continuously. When I ask about Microsoft’s consumer strategy, he points to its 100 million-plus consumer subscribers: “Autopilot should also go to the consumer side.” He sees consumer agents potentially cutting out today’s middlemen, making that market more zero-sum. In the enterprise, he thinks agents will make the market bigger than cloud “by orders of magnitude.”
All trading below their 200-day moving averages right now:
- Dow transports ($DJT)
- Industrials $XLI
- Retail $XRT
- $GS
Right at the 200-day MA - $KRE. $RUT seems destined to test the 200-day. Normal late September action, but it doesn't feel good. I guess we're setting the state for some golden crosses come late October/November or we're going lower. $MAGS carrying the day like 2024 when we dreamed of lower deficits and lower rates....
This is one of my favorite charts. It's amazing how small caps went from modestly overbought to NEARLY VIOLENTLY oversold. The picture below tells the story. In general buying when the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drops below 20 has been a massive driver of returns. Conversely selling when the percentage exceeds 70% has preserved capital.
The headline here: We're oversold in small caps following the spike in interest rates and crude oil prices. We're not at a clear buy signal yet, but it's close. $IWM
The trading action in $LEN should be pretty interesting following a disappointing print and underwhelming guidance (albeit not surprising). The stock trades at tangible book value with a 2.5% dividend yield (that used to mean something) and they look set to buyback 5-7% of the shares outstanding annually. They've moved their entire pricing and gross margin model down to meet the market so they can move volumes. They're moving units in Arkansas at $230,000. There's definitely a market at that price point. There's some controversy about their land bank accounting practices from the work of @hntrbrkmedia, but you still have a biz that's not impairing book and generating profits.
Insiders own a fair amount, Berkshire bought last quarter. Is there enough bad news here? Is it finally washed out?
hntrbrk.com/breaking-news/le…
PAA Research retweeted
$AIRS needs to refi their debt. Its a mega catalyst which we have no reason to believe won't happen. "term sheets on our desk".
Been a frustrating stock and mgmt still has a lot to prove. Think they are the right team, but again, show me.
GLP1 creating all sorts of new aesthetic demand. ASPS flagged lift/contour as the defining category. Facial fat
grafting +39%, brow lift +29%, upper body lift +22%,
arm lift +21%, neck lift +21%, thigh lift +20%, facelift
+13%, breast lift +8% — broadest gains in the report,
tied to post-GLP-1 skin laxity.
AIRS has direct shots on goal to address much of this (not all). They also have partnered on AlloClae which looks timely. Checks here are encouraging. Minimally invasive still dominant by volume. Neuromodulators (~50%) and HA fillers (~30%) account for most non-surgical treatment volume — the space AIRS's new AlloClae partnership targets.
These new pockets of growth need to offset what was a -1% lipo print in 2025 per ASPS. Still #1 by volume, though.
Time to make it happen, Yogi. The opportunity is too big and timely for it to not start showing up. Start by signing those term sheets.
You're seeing a lot of bullish commentary from energy executives these days, yet I don't see a ton of M&A activity .Why isn't $CVX buying more unhedged crude centric producers? Where are the monster M&A deals? Obviously no board is going for that and most of these executives wouldn't either. Hence, I take all that's being said with a monster grain of salt. The secular trends still matter more.
Congrats to @patrick_oshag, @colossusjeremy, and the entire @colossusmag for this lengthy, remarkably nuanced, and piercing exposition on Mark Zuckerberg. Like any other great piece of writing, its consumption will challenge all of your priors and elicit a fair amount of introspection. More of this type of content please!
In reading this piece, I was reminded of a young soccer player I know with an otherworldly, seemingly unsustainable workrate. Games, practice, individual training, it's all the same. Yes, there's the desire to get better, the threat of losing a game, but ultimately the innate motivation is in the HARD WORK, which a coach brilliantly described as "his OXYGEN". A big part of hard work is innate talent for it.
Said another way, Mark Zuckerberg is a Doozer.
youtube.com/watch?v=3jvt4H4Y…
Mark, by @colossusjeremy.
This is a story about the head of history's largest nonterritorial empire, who nonetheless remains a prisoner of his rivals. Has he finally found a way out?
The profile has been nearly a year in the making. Stern interviewed three dozen people, including Zuckerberg, his MMA coach, and his critics and competitors at the frontier AI labs. He spoke with his parents, Karen and Ed, and watched their son get punched in the face.
The story spans Meta HQ in Menlo Park, the Zuckerbergs' homes in Palo Alto and Lake Tahoe, and a party in a Manhattan warehouse with Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet. There is also a sneak peek of Aaron Sorkin's forthcoming sequel about Zuckerberg, sourced via a Hollywood fixer Stern first encountered in Russia.
The result is a profile unlike one you've read before.
colossus.com/article/mark-zu…
We published an extensive report on our short thesis on $CASY and $MUSA a few weeks ago. In general, people were highly interested in our bearish views on $MUSA, not as much on $CASY. Early days here on our thesis, but so far so good. Comp deceleration across the industry and it's now showing up at $CASY despite the rollout of WINGS!!
For the moment everyone in the AI ecosystem is rowing in the same direction to make sure Anthropic gets out. The #Astra release, the talk of AGI, the supposed acceleration in growth, it's all quite transparent. #QTS is advertising about the merits of data centers during football games. No company on the planet needs a change in narrative like #openAI. It's all hands on deck for the tech community and wall street.
Fantastic work by all of those involved in the $FICO short. The (-60%+) decline from the peak feels right in a lot of ways. The chart is as good as you'll get for a short seller. However, like every other great short idea, bears endured THREE contra-trend rallies of 30-40% on the march to a (-60%+) decline over the past 18-months. That is typical and one of the reasons why shorting is so difficult.
$OXM getting "LULUed" after hours following a huge guide lower. Apparently people are tired of the floral prints at Lily Pulitzer. Less bright colors they said. Tepid demand for $150 quarter zips at #southerntide isn't helping matters either. The market seems to think that $0.70 quarterly dividend is at HUGE risk. No position.