If there is any actual progress on Iran, he would just post it out as well. Don’t see any reason for keeping the good news as a secret before midterms. The actual intention is to pressure (more) on EU to release the diesel reserve.

I hardly agree on any of this, especially in 2026 and maybe onward. Vitol took a very significant loss by betting against the Iran-US war. It seems that the largest oil trader do not have edge on geopolitics. Annnnd something new this year, retail traders are inventing and publishing method to count the Hormuz flows and that method is adopted by Kpler weeks later. I believe similar stuff is also happening in techs. Retails are becoming much much smarter thanks to AI and platforms like X, Substack and Discord etc.

It's actually a bit more complicated. Murata have ~50% mlcc produced in Wuxi China and keeps expanding there. So my take is that export control is less likely to happen but when it happens it's more violent.