専門家じゃない人が書いちゃいけないような分析まで書いちゃってるから、参考程度に見てほしいです。
本文は12,000字程度です。
ロシア防空システムの大規模再配置 ―衛星画像から見るS-300/400の移動とドクトリンの変容― note.com/happy_lotus194/n/nc…
Asuw retweeted
中国政府系集団がAIで大規模攻撃 世界数百の組織標的に 米マイクロソフト確認
sankei.com/article/20261022-…
標的の選定から、クラウド上の管理者権限を奪うまでに3時間もかからなかったケースもあり、AIが攻撃のスピードと規模を飛躍的に高めている実例だと指摘し、警戒を呼びかけた。
Asuw retweeted
昨夜の攻撃の可視化と21日1800~22日1450頃までの警報の遷移
弾道ミサイル
1波 21日2208~2212 6発以上
2波 21日2353~2355 3発
3波 22日0259~0334 15発以上
4波 22日1239~1341 2発
極超音速ミサイル
1波 21日2208~2212 3発以上
2波 22日0157~0201 6発以上
Asuw retweeted
The Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the 75th Arsenal in Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast, with missiles/jet-powered drones.
A defense-industrial complex enterprise specializing in the repair, restoration, and storage of military equipment, including air defense systems.According to Rostec, the facility repaired equipment for the Buk-M1, Buk-M2, and S-300V systems.
A missile alert was issued in the city during the attack.
OSINT researchers had paid particular attention to the facility. In a post dated March 29, 2024, OSINT researcher Jompy described the 75th Arsenal as the only storage base for Russian surface-to-air systems he had identified.
54.931187, 37.412960
Asuw retweeted
10/20 ツィンブロヴァのゲラン5発射場(南東側)
@SkyfiApp @vantortech
以前破壊した以上の数の小規模保管庫が出来上がっている。また、既存カタパルトはレーン全体がケージで覆われているように見える。新たな発射エリアは、4基分ですでに1箇所は舗装されている。
1/2
経産省「ホワイトハッカー」のチーム立ち上げへ
news.web.nhk/newsweb/na/nd-2… #nhk_news
Asuw retweeted
❗️Russia is increasingly using S-300/S-400 air defense missiles in ground-attack roles, creating fast ballistic-like threats that are difficult to intercept. According to Ukrainian intelligence cited in the analysis, Russia produced around 200 converted RM-48U missiles in 2025 and plans to manufacture more than 480 in 2026. The missiles are less accurate than Iskanders but increase the number of high-speed targets Ukraine must defend against. #Ukraine
Asuw retweeted
It has been amusing to watch many assume that the "S-400" missiles reportedly being launched in a surface-to-surface mode against Ukraine are standard SARH 48N6 surface-to-air interceptors. Ukrainian intelligence has been talking about Russia adapting the underlying design as a purpose-built surface-to-surface missile with the designation RM-48U for some time.
All things considered, and the significant limitations of the RM-48U notwithstanding, this is a rather smart move on the part of Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if (actual) 48N6 stocks and production exceed requirements, at least in the near term, while 9M723 Iskander-M production remains inadequate for wartime needs. The RM-48U is hardly optimal for the role and has limited range for Russia's purposes in the Russia-Ukraine War, but nevertheless facilitates larger and more regular "ballistic missile" salvos, which can further draw upon Ukraine's finite stocks of BMD interceptors. Furthermore, there exists a very large pool of (ordinarily) SAM launchers that can launch up to four of these at a time, which is no small thing once you consider how, as per Ukrainian intelligence, Russia currently lacks enough 9M723 Iskander-M ballistic missiles for all 100+ associated launchers, let alone all the reloading vehicles assigned to said launchers.
The S-300 and S-400 have always had a surface-to-surface mode and the practice of employing SAMs in this manner is hardly new. Russia has been doing so since 2022 as a result of critical munitions shortages (as I recall, this initially/previously concerned the use of older 5V55 interceptors employed by S-300 batteries, which are being gradually phased out—some of the 5V55 interceptors are very old). Consider also the South Korean (Ameircan-built) Nike Hercules turned Hyunmoo-1 ballistic missile. I remember @fab_hinz wrote his masters thesis on the surface-to-surface mode for the S-300, which anyone interested in the technical particulars may find informative.
Finally, I am curious to know which part of the Russian military operates these S-400 launchers with RM-48U missiles. The S-400 is VKS system, not an SV system (the PVO-SV operates the essentially unrelated S-300V), while the 9M723-M is an SV system. Is the VKS now in the ground-launched strike capabilities business? The VMF now appears to be with the ground-launched 3M22 Zircon (reportedly using modified Bastion-P launchers). There is also the peculiar and under appreciated dynamic concerning how the conventionally armed Oreshnik is operated by the RVSN RF (which otherwise only operates nuclear-armed missiles), not the SV, which operates the 9M723 Iskander-M. I have also seen at least one Ukrainian source recently talking about VKS-operated Gerans, although I am unsure if this accurate (ordinarily operated by SV units, the Geran-2 is also employed by the new VBS). 1/
⚡ Russia has converted up to 17 launchers of the S-400 air defense system for missile strikes against targets in Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian command operates five special missile groups deployed in the Bryansk and Rostov regions.
militarnyi.com/en/news/russi…
According to GUR, Russia's missile and OWA UAS production rate and (stockpile):
9M723-series Iskander-M: 65 per month (115)
Kh-101: 80 per month
Kalibr: 29 per month (450)
RM-48U: 40 per month (up to 400)
Oniks: 55 in the first 7 months of 2026 (600)
Tsirkon: 30 in 2026 (120)
OWA UAS: 10,000 per month (6,200), including:
Geran-2: up to 2,000 per month
Geran-4/5: up to 4,000 per month
Gerbera: hundreds per month
In addition, Russia is developing a modernized version of the Iskander-M (presumably 9M723) with a projected range of 550 to 700 kilometers.
nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ozb…
pravda.com.ua/news/2026/10/2…
Asuw retweeted
Approximate flight routes of the missiles used in tonight's Russian missile attack on Kyiv.
The following was launched:
~11 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, some of which were equipped with cluster warheads.
~8 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles launched from near Klintsy and Pochep, Bryansk Oblast.
~3 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from near Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.
~22 missiles in total.
None of the 22 missiles were shot down due to Ukraine being completely out of Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles.
Among the targets hit were the CHP-5 and CHP-4 Combined Heat and Power Plants.
Asuw retweeted
BBCニュース - ウクライナのために活動するロシア人工作員、偵察活動の映像をBBCに提供
bbc.com/japanese/watch/cq78p…
ウクライナのために活動するロシア人工作員、偵察活動の映像をBBCに提供
情報処理推進機構“PHPでぜい弱性確認 速やかな対応を”
news.web.nhk/newsweb/na/nd-2… #nhk_news
Asuw retweeted
1/2 The number of confirmed air defense towers and ramps in Alabuga, the main production facility for Russian strike drones, has reached 33, as a new @planet high-res image taken today, Oct. 21, shows. Ukraine hasn’t attempted to strike the site since June 2025.
Asuw retweeted
PHPの重大な脆弱性に関し、本日午後11時に公開が予定されている修正パッチを可及的速やかに適用することが困難な場合は、例えばウェブサイト等を一時的に停止させることも、リスクを低減させるための有効策の一つと考えられます。
Asuw retweeted
PHPのセキュリティチームが、重大な2件の脆弱性に関する注意喚起を行っています。公開しているウェブサイトでPHPを使用しているか確認し、10月21日午後11時(日本時間)に公開される修正パッチについて、可及的速やかに適用できるよう準備をお願いいたします。
php.net/archive/2026.php#202…
Asuw retweeted
🚨 A Russian Su-30SM fighter crashed in Kaliningrad Oblast at 12:53, between Timofeyevka and Zelyony Bor in Chernyakhovsky District.
Both pilots ejected and were hospitalized with injuries.
Asuw retweeted
【サイバーセキュリティ対策本部】
⚠️PHPに重大な脆弱性!!⚠️
本日(10月21日)午後11時(日本時間)に2件の脆弱性に関する修正パッチが公開予定。
PHPを利用している場合は速やかに適用できるように
事前準備をお願いします。
#PHP #脆弱性
【事前準備のお願い】PHPのセキュリティリリース公開予定について ipa.go.jp/security/security-…
Asuw retweeted
【対応呼びかけ】プログラム言語「PHP」に脆弱性、全世界のウェブサイト7割で使用
news.livedoor.com/article/de…
PHPについて、修正パッチが日本時間21日午後11時に公開されるとして、IPAは民間企業などに対して速やかな対応を取るよう呼びかけた。すでに多数の企業が緊急メンテナンスを実施している。
Asuw retweeted
New high-resolution satellite imagery shows that Russia has continued rapid expansions at the Tsumbulova drone launching site in Oryol Oblast.
6 new areas for launching drones have been constructed, and additional launching areas are being prepared. These will likely be used to launch Geran-4/5 jet-drones, which are constantly launched from Tsumbulova.
Additionally, repair work is underway on drone storage facilities damaged in recent Ukrainian drone strikes so they can be used for storing Geran drones once again. Fortifications near the launch pads are also being constructed to protect against Ukrainian attacks, and its reported that the entire site will soon be covered in anti-drone netting.
Image credit: @StrategicaviationT on Telegram







































