Thoughts on U.S. stocks, business quality, and market psychology. Focused on discipline and clear thinking. Educational only—not financial advice.

Chicago, Illinois
Joined April 2009
$NBIS: "Whatever we can build as fast as we can build, everything will be sold. So this is the limit for our growth." $LULU: "The overall response to our product launches remains inconsistent... We haven't yet seen an impact on the top line trajectory." A certain someone who wants to sound smart for subscriptions: "Yes, let's short $NBIS and buy $LULU."
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*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneSep 9
AI BOOM DRIVES S&P 500 EARNINGS HIGHER S&P 500 earnings estimates are rising sharply, fueled by AI investment and stronger-than-expected corporate results. About 86% of companies beat analyst expectations, the highest share since 2021. Wall Street now expects 32% earnings growth in 2026, up from 24% before second-quarter results. AI-linked companies including Alphabet and Amazon delivered major beats, while communication services, consumer stocks and energy also saw significant upgrades.
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Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to: - $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028 For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T: 0 -> 2 3.2T: 3 -> 5 GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated. So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.
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$META The big move hasnt even arrived yet. The next bull trend starts at 655. As for now- Trendline support bounce is giving 18%
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Sam Badawi
@Sam_BadawiSep 8
$AMKR Amkor is expanding its Arizona advanced packaging campus to roughly 93,000 square meters of cleanroom space, increasing planned investment to $12B. Strong customer commitments already exceeded Phase 1 capacity, with Phase 2 expected to support more than 3,500 Arizona jobs.
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$MU #MU Not the best start to the week, but the volume shelf setup is still very much there.
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amit
@amitisinvestingSep 8
For those wondering why we had some ugly red candles towards the end of day… - U.S. forces struck multiple IRGC-linked Iranian tankers in response to further attempted Iranian missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship, according to a U.S. official. - Iran’s IRGC Navy warned oil tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports hosting Americans to evacuate, saying ships would be targeted in retaliation, according to Iranian state media. Basically, escalation is only continuing with Iran which is pushing up oil…the market has largely ignored the spike in oil but the highest level in 3 months on these headlines definitely took a hit to markets by end of day. Crude now pushing $94/barrel.
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$AVGO Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated in the recent earnings report: “We are very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.” If Broadcom reaches exactly $30 and its current ~31× forward P/E contracts by 20% to 24.8×: • Implied share price: $744 • Price appreciation: 102% • Estimated total return with dividends: ~104% Even with significant multiple compression, Broadcom could still more than double by the end of 2028.
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> Optics finally broke out in force. And $LITE is now racing toward $1,000. - The clearest catalyst today is the multi-billion-dollar $GLW-Verizon agreement covering more than 80 million miles of high-density fiber from 2027 through 2032, explicitly including long-haul infrastructure for AI hyperscalers. - Goldman Sachs also sharply raised its global optical-module market forecast to $67.7B in 2026, $131.4B in 2027, and $148.5B in 2028, helping trigger a broader re-rating across the optics complex. - The result: $AXTI +13.3%, $LITE +12.8%, $VIAV +11.9%, $LPTH +10.6%, $GLW +8.8%, $COHR +8.7%, $CIEN +8.6%, and $AAOI +7.9%. Almost the entire optical value chain I have been following is moving together. > What stands out is that this is not limited to transceiver vendors. InP substrate supplier $AXTI, fiber leader $GLW, optical component suppliers $LITE/$COHR, and networking player $CIEN are all participating. > The market appears to be moving beyond simply saying “AI needs more GPUs” and increasingly pricing in the next layer: more GPUs ultimately require more light, more fiber, and more optics. > And $LITE touched roughly $993 today. $LITE at $1,000 is no longer a prediction. It is almost a print.
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$SPCX SpaceX continues to impress Notes to subscribers on charts
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$MU $SNDK $EWY $DRAM Even the straddle or strangle would have worked well off the break.
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One of the most important moving averages I keep an eye on: The 50 week EMA... If you trade momentum, learn to pay attention to this level. Why? Because some of the strongest stocks in the market can spend months riding the 50 week EMA during their biggest Stage 2 advances A stock can have multiple red weeks. It can pull back 50%+ It can look “weak” on the daily chart. But when you zoom out to the weekly? The primary momentum trend may have never been broken. That’s where the 50 week EMA becomes extremely useful. I use it for 3 main things: 1. Identifying powerful trends When a stock continues making higher highs and higher lows while consistently respecting a rising 50-week EMA, that's usually a sign of very strong momentum. The strongest leaders don't always give you deep pullbacks. They move higher → consolidate → test the 50 week → and continue. Almost like a staircase. 2. Separating a normal pullback from a potential character change Not every red candle means the trend is over. When a leader pulls back, zoom out. Is the weekly structure still intact? Is the 50 week EMA still rising? Is price still respecting it? Is selling volume decreasing into the pullback? If so, what looks ugly on the daily chart can simply be the stock digesting its previous move. This is why timeframe matters. 3. Finding where momentum could potentially reset Eventually, even the strongest stocks become extended. I don't want to chase a stock that's trading vertically away from its moving averages. I'd rather see: Most of the leading stocks in the market end up doing this: Expansion --> Contraction --> 50 week EMA catches up --> Volume dries up --> New setup forms That reset can create a beautiful weekly continuation and momentum will starts coming back in to the trade The amount of previous leaders setting up off the 50 week right is incredible $BE $SNDK $ARM $NVDA
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William O’Neil on the stock you won’t buy because it’s “too high”
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*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneSep 7
FED RATE HIKE ODDS CLIMB AS TRUMP TURNS UP PRESSURE Markets are leaning toward a 25bps Fed rate hike in September, with Kalshi pricing the probability at 52%, versus 48% for no change. The shift comes as President Trump ramps up pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to cut rates, arguing higher borrowing costs threaten growth. With the decision approaching, inflation data could be the deciding factor. kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddeci…
🤝 Paid partnership
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Incredible growth expected for $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI with new GS optical transceiver forecasts. - Global optical transceiver TAM revised up by 33% / 81% / 115% in 2026-28E. - In 2026/27/28E: optical transceiver market to reach $68B/131B/148B. - Driven by (1) higher rack-level AI server and ASIC AI server shipments and (2) higher estimates on the usage of optical transceivers per Nvidia GPU in rack-level AI servers. - 800G and above segment to increase at a +69% CAGR to reach $45B/108B/130B. - 800G/1.6T shipment volumes at 45M/33M units in 2026E, growing to 49M/71M in 2027E, with 3.2T shipment ramping up to 23M/68M in 2027/28E. - Silicon photonics will account for 60%/80%/80% of 800G/1.6T/3.2T optical transceivers. Just insane growth on top of what most people had forecasted a few months ago.
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.4% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.71% (highest since July 2025)
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The bull market is gaining momentum: The 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has now risen for 329 consecutive trading sessions, the 4th-strongest streak over the last 10 years. This follows a previous 460-session run that briefly ended in April 2025 following "Liberation Day," bringing the combined streak to ~800 sessions, which would be the 3rd-longest since 1990. For perspective, the longest such stretch lasted 1,448 days during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Historically, when the 200-day moving average was rising, the S&P 500 returned +8.5% per year on average since 1999. By comparison, when the 200-day moving average was falling, the S&P 500 returned just +0.1% per year on average. History suggests the bullish trend is far from over.
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1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. (BofA's starts in 1936.) The past 10 years through this summer have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next.
This is wild. The 10 year rolling returns on Treasuries is now -2%, the worst in 100 YEARS. h/t: @agnostoxxx
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Considering its revenue ramp into FY28 and strong gross margin profile, a reasonable assumption to maintain a mid-40% FCF margin next year could see Nvidia $NVDA generate north of $310 billion in FCF – or enough to cover the current circular financing obligations by nearly 2X. io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia…
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$MU $SKHY $NVDA $TSM HOLY SHIT Annual token usage will be ~4,000 quadrillion by 2030 mainly due to Agentic AI. And this is just the base case.
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