Two perspectives on manufacturing in the US that show a different trend post-2022: payroll employment (left) and real value added (right).
With productivity growth, we should not expect manufacturing employment to track overall productive activity.
Gas prices in CA are persistently high. Did Jones Act waiver that increased fuel shipments to CA reduce this gas premium? Here's the raw data.
Near-full price pass-through of minimum wages.
I changed my mind on minimum wage after reviewing the data. I used to believe in letting the free market handle it, like most of you.
However, when California raised the minimum wage for fast-food workers, it increased prices for consumers by pennies (~1-2%).
There was zero downside... it didn't drive massive automation, nor did it cause businesses to shutter.
Exactly the same result as Australia and other American cities... no changes in jobs; restaurants didn't close.
We are at record profits for corporations.
We are at a record low in unemployment in America over the past five years.
We are at maximum social unrest due to wealth disparity.
We should WANT to see the lowest-earning Americans go from $12 to $15, to $20, and then to $25 an hour over the next decade.
This isn't virtue signaling; this is good business!
Why?
Individuals earning under $40,000 a year spend 100% of their income.
They save nothing... they just spend it at the same companies they earn it at (Amazon, McDonald's, the Apple Store, DoorDash, Uber, etc).
It increases monetary velocity.
Take the time to research all of this, and you'll find the only downside is for teenage workers, who aren't worth $15-20 an hour. It does depress those jobs, so we should keep teenagers at a lower rate.
Health care spending inequality has been rising since 2018.
Regression-adjust Per Capita Total Health Care Spending from Cliff and Meille (2026)
The U.S. federal deficit is at 6% of GDP and trending up.
The deficit has never been this high during an economic expansion. If not addressed we face a bleak future of high interest rates, high inflation and low growth.
This is a crisis that few are taking seriously.
Very excited to be in Berlin to present on my Handbook Chapter on non-wage amenities in the RFB Masterclass as well as my new paper "The Labor Market as an Equilibrium Newsvendor Problem".
What a lovely city, and the first thing I was walking out of arrivals was a family with a "Welcome Home Freddy" sign. Probably a coincidence, but could it be?











