Deputy Director for Sustainable Future @nesta_uk. Cover a mix of climate, economics, energy, heating. Ex civil servant, chief economist. Personal account.
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ALT One of our key indicators on roll-out of low-carbon technologies is on track (public electric vehicle chargepoints), eight are off track (battery electric car and van shares of total sales, residential heat pump installations, electricity used in industry, offshore wind, onshore wind and solar operational capacities, unabated gas share of electricity generation).
ALT Figure 2 This line graph shows the difference in annualised whole-life cost between heat pumps and gas boilers from 2024 to 2035 under four scenarios: Baseline, High innovation, Cheaper electricity, and High subsidy. The average cost difference is depicted under the four scenarios for each year the heating is installed. It ranges from -£400 to over £600. The Baseline scenario starts around break-even (0£ difference) and shows a steep increase to £670 in 2028 and then decreases slowly to £510. In contrast, all other scenarios begin with large savings (-£50 – -£230) and remain close to £0, crossing the break-even point in 2030. The maximum is £200 for Cheap electricity in 2034. The High subsidy scenario performs somewhat worse than the other two, with heat pumps becoming slightly more expensive in 2028 and remaining in positive values. Costs include installation and running costs, with negative values indicating savings from switching to a heat pump.
