Prediction markets research & on-chain analysis | 📊| 📉📈.
Joined June 2013
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TL;DR:
• Binance's tracked wallets are down $12.47B this week (DefiLlama, as of 7:30 AM IST)
• The ~$6B refill Binance announced never shows up in that data
• So the real number is unverifiable until the Nov 3 reserve proof
I pulled the daily data 🧵
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Why the gap: on Nov 1 Binance moved withdrawals to new wallets it added to its proof-of-reserves list. Trackers without them can't tell a user leaving from Binance moving its own coins.
One tell (unconfirmed): 68.7% of its tracked ZEC left in a single day.
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TL;DR on the Binance hack:
• Hot wallets drained overnight, ~204.5K ETH
• $2.54B frozen, Binance says it "will cover all losses"
• But liquidated traders + locked-out users still pay
• Next wave: fake "refund" DMs. Ignore them
Full breakdown 🧵👇
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5/ What you can do today:
1. Ignore every "refund" or "security check" DM/email. Use the app or a typed URL
2. Turn on your exchange's anti-phishing code + withdrawal address whitelist
3. Self-custody? Revoke old token approvals, and never sign an "authorization" you can't read
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How degen are you on-chain? Pull your @Housebets card, find out — and there's something in it for you. @HousebetsWhale @housebetsintern drop my card. Use my code: A2onchain 🃏
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Here’s why I will hold on to my Extended airdrop and you should too 👇
1. Polymarket is only giving Extended a 66% chance of holding 150M mcap after day 1. With all the partnerships out there and the fees it’s generating these are dollars for pennies. Once the farmers sell to move liquidity somewhere else this will skyrocket past 500M mcap (Prediction is within 30 days of launch)
2. Currently Extended hasn’t activated any KOLs unlike other Dex, while this means less noise but it is giga bullish because this means less burn from the team. Effective capital use.
3. Majority CT thinks only Revolut partnership can push Extended while they are missing out what Circle and eToro unlocks for Extended in EU and with more partnerships lined from US (alpha)
So should you buy Yes on Polymarket for FDV above 150M after 1 day? No.
Buy the next day! EXPECTING SO MUCH MORE
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$POLY will not come in 2026. Why?
Polymarket filed for wordmark $POLY earlier this year. On 5th June they were asked to update their application by DA, on 7th July they applied for 3 month deadline extension. Default time is 3 month.
So the date for any update on Poly becomes 👇
3 (default) + 3 (requested) = 6 months.
Meaning the date is 6th December by which Polymarket will respond after that expect more clarifications seeker or approval. So 2026 is gone.
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