36th Parallel is a geopolitical and strategic forecasting consultancy that provides intelligence, analysis & assessments of the South Pacific region and beyond.
Auckland, New Zealand
Joined February 2012
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There are two types of democratic elections: 1) the tension-release model; and 2) the contention model. In stable democracies and historically in the West, the tension-release model predominated: campaigns built up voter enthusiasm, elections were held, results were announced,
people accepted them and returned to their routines. However, recent elections have been of the contested sort: campaigns are divisive, elections are bitterly disputed and results not accepted in defeat. This leans closer to civil war than stable governance, something that should
What are the odds that Lula's win in the Brazil presidential run-off election today is a portent of things to come in Israel, the US and NZ over the next 10 days? Has the global Right political wave crested? Or is that wishful thinking and its support is more solidly grounded?
How's NZ's "independent foreign policy" working out these days? rnz.co.nz/news/politics/2149…
Unmentioned in the election campaign, it is possible that a Labour-Green-TPM-Opportunity coalition will abandon timid NACTFirst fence-straddling when it comes to foreign policy, especially with regards to US bullying of foreign partners and neo-imperialist power assertion.
In this essay Director Paul G. Buchanan elaborates on the "threshold of consent" in liberal democracies in light of the unrest in Europe and elsewhere. The "valley of transition" may not yet be approachable but it is now discernible on the horizon. kiwipolitico.com/2026/10/the…
If Labour/Green/TPM candidates visiting gang pads swing the election towards NACTFirst, then it proves how shallow and manipulable the electorate is. OTOH, with everything else at stake, why has Labour allowed itself to be trapped by the negative focus on gang outreach efforts?
The attacks by Trump, Vance and other GOP figures on Democrat candidate for Ohio governor Amy Acton, a pedophile rape survivor, indicate that cruelty is the message. Nothing more, nothing less. Cruelty for cruelty's sake. People in Ohio and elsewhere need to vote accordingly.
Here is a short take from Director Paul G. Buchanan on weathervane elections around the globe: kiwipolitico.com/2026/10/wea…
Weathervane elections forthcoming: Brazil presidential run-off, Israeli parliamentary elections, US midterms and NZ general elections. These are true tests of where voters want their countries to go. The choices are about reaffirming or rejecting the Right as a governing force.
If a US-born Muslim Senate candidate (Abdul El-Sayed) can be asked to disavow the Muslim Brotherhood, then US Catholic politicians such as convert JD Vance should be asked to disavow Opus Dei. Both groups have militant/moderate factions and both do charity work so are comparable.
It will be interesting to see if Ukraine's destruction of Russian rightwing data centres/bot farms has an impact on NZ Right social media election messaging. It has already resulted in a drastic drop in US, German, Polish rightwing posts and pro-Russian/anti-Ukraine memes.
Lost in most Western media coverage is that the conflict in the ME is increasingly becoming a sectarian struggle between Shiite and Sunni. The Houthis and Iran are majority Shiite. Saudi, the UAE, other Arab states and the "recognised" Yemeni govt are Sunni. Pakistan and Turkey
The death of ex-NZSAS trooper Justin Conaglen in an (apparently Wagner Group-led) ambush while on a "mineral security" operation working for an Eric Prince (of Blackwater fame) as a mercenary in the Congo has received little attention in NZ. Thee story deserves more attention.