if they don't scare you out, they wear you out
Joined May 2021
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Daniel retweeted
So, here’s what happened: Binance hot wallets were drained of $5.60B today across Ethereum, Bitcoin and Tron.
$200m were transferred few minutes ago, so hack is still ongoing
Here is what is on-chain rn: what is frozen vs not, and the addresses to watch.
➮ Totals
✧ $5.60B pulled from Binance hot wallets
✧ 3 chains: Ethereum, Bitcoin, Tron
✧ 67 assets, 63 of them swept out of Binance 14 in a single tx
✧ Attack vector not confirmed at time of writing
➮ Frozen so far: $2.38B
✧ $1.56B USDT frozen by @Tether_to: $1.18B on Ethereum + $379M on Tron
✧ $823M USDC frozen by @circle
✧ Thats ~42% of the haul neutralized within the day
➮ Not frozen: ~$2.6B
✧ 18,270 $BTC ($1.45B) - nobody can freeze this
✧ 197K $ETH ($451M) - same
✧ ~$730M USDT still unfrozen, Tether can still act on it
✧ Rest: $TRX ($234M), $RLUSD ($88.5M), $WBETH ($75M), $XAUT ($50M) and a tail of smaller tokens
➮ Addresses to watch (paste into etherscan / mempool / tronscan)
Ethereum, attacker main, holds the frozen USDT + USDC:
0x5227f603c1ee34ce3c06efe6477003bdfccb2f8c
Ethereum, 195,460 ETH parked here:
0x8532fa14acaf483729c449b8458aeddb900543d4
Main sweep tx, 63 tokens out of Binance 14:
0x53bd38b816c23e74134786c29a8c18d792777998a3b9326047b583100e88e2f3
Bitcoin, 18,270 BTC received:
bc1q0mtc2f5agpkvlq6hhahmfr3hlr55kyfjhl2mnm
Tron, 612.7M USDT received, 313M of it frozen:
TG5iBMQPrDzJJAUM8GMVBf1hRaJ1wvzsGi
Tron, 216M USDT, not frozen:
TSUUVjysXV8YqHytSNjfkNXnnB49QDvZpx
➮ Context
✧ Previous record: Bybit, Feb 2025, $1.5B in ETH. This is ~3.8x that
✧ Binance 2019 hack: ~7,000 BTC, ~$40M, covered by SAFU
✧ Binance 2022 BNB bridge: ~$570M, most of it frozen by validators within hours
✧ Moreover, SAFU fund was ~$1B at last disclosure. This hack is 5x+ that, so the coverage question is Binance balance sheet, not SAFU
➮ What matters next
1/ Whether Tether freezes the remaining ~$730M USDT, and whether Ripple does the same with $88.5M RLUSD
2/ First outbound hops from the BTC and ETH addresses, bridges or mixers. Until then $1.9B is just sitting there
3/ Binance withdrawal status and an official statement on how 63 tokens got signed out of Binance 14
4/ Whether this follows Bybit pattern: that money went through THORChain within days, same route would show up fast here
Will update as the addresses move.
Daniel retweeted
Bitcoin has to get moving here.
In any solid uptrend, three red weekly candles typically is a short reset and a quick continuation of the trend resumes. We need to see that quickly imo.
Bitcoin appears to be confirming the new cycle here. These events provide a really clear and clean setup.
The upside target is around 30 to 45 days, room for a good advance. It is however not guarantee of a major upside move, but provides an excellent anchoring point because a loss of the recent lows ($79,600) is a level where you would want to get very defensive.
Daniel retweeted
🎥 Video - Schiff Pitchfork - Update 2026
🔗youtu.be/jODrEVlzjFU
$BTC
When could be the potential top of this cycle? [Bullish Scenario]
We know we can't rely 100% on what happened in the past, but... still...
youtu.be/ge5yde6XrR0
Daniel retweeted
Such an odd market. There are big nuggets for both perma bulls and bears to latch onto, a perfect environment for fitting the market to your bias. (AI, Capex, Growth, Rates, Oil, Breadth)
I like to approach markets like this with the fundamental belief that we simply cannot know what lies ahead, more so now than ever. Embrace the unknown and trust the trend for as long as it holds, but be quick to hunker down the moment it’s lost.
And that might mean getting trapped occasionally. That’s the price of refusing to predict (and blindly hold to) what comes next.
Daniel retweeted
Ethereum ethereum:native bearish PO3 under $2,550 area
If ETHUSDT buyers don't show up and maintain the price above $2,550 area on daily and weekly close, than the last rally has the potential to be a FalseBreak/Deviation.
Target for this move is $2,145 area with invalidation above $2,670 area daily close.
P.S: For the usual suspects, even a move to $2,145 can still be bullish on HTF if it holds there as it will print a weekly HigherLow, but emphasis on holding above $2,145 area.
Daniel retweeted
$BTC - 1D TF
(quoted post)
The projection from the September 6 post is OK so far.
It still has chances toward the 82828 high later.
$BTC
Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator I use for bull / bear market confluences, timing, and support / resistance zones. It has also been presented in the past.
Strictly based on this indicator, bull / bear confirmation comes after price breaks the 100% level with volume, the orange level. Retests are only for bull / bear continuation.
Confirmations usually come quite late. I do not wait for them to buy or sell, but at this moment we can see that price is retesting it and is at a “crossroads” zone (pic 2), where I need to wait and see if it manages to break it with volume for a bear market bottom confirmation.
As long as it does not manage to do that, I am not interested in other SPOT buys up to 57K, even if we see a more aggressive pullback.
If it succeeds, we have the bullish confirmation. That means I will remain in longs + the SPOT from the 60K area, and I can add on the next aggressive pullback I see after price breaks the orange level with volume.
Attached video (RO version, cut from the latest YT video).
Daniel retweeted
It’s easy to get chopped up rushing aggressively into markets like crypto the moment things start looking better.
Without a long, deep washout beforehand, major trend changes rarely happen cleanly. They take time, chop around, and punish anyone leaning too hard in either direction, bull or bear.
If you take the full bull position early you better be prepared to at least be challenged.
If you sense the trend shift coming, scaling in and accumulating on solid dips while weathering the chop puts you in a good position to stand tough and then flip fully bullish when it becomes an obvious change in trend.
Daniel retweeted
You are not "creating millionaires" by pumping zero sum tokens
You are redistributing wealth from many to a select few
I never understood how people can act like they're doing sth good, at best it's neutral, at worst a bunch of bad actors rake in 90%+ of their followers money
Daniel retweeted
The Ebb and Flow youtu.be/VWsFf5rQoqE?si=-KTy…
The latest video in the Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle HODL Journey.
Daniel retweeted
A portfolio update to the Bitcoin 4Yr Cycle Model portfolio. A full video update will come on Tuesday.
youtu.be/aKbB7gV67M4?si=_02O…
Daniel retweeted
$BTC
Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator I use for bull / bear market confluences, timing, and support / resistance zones. It has also been presented in the past.
Strictly based on this indicator, bull / bear confirmation comes after price breaks the 100% level with volume, the orange level. Retests are only for bull / bear continuation.
Confirmations usually come quite late. I do not wait for them to buy or sell, but at this moment we can see that price is retesting it and is at a “crossroads” zone (pic 2), where I need to wait and see if it manages to break it with volume for a bear market bottom confirmation.
As long as it does not manage to do that, I am not interested in other SPOT buys up to 57K, even if we see a more aggressive pullback.
If it succeeds, we have the bullish confirmation. That means I will remain in longs + the SPOT from the 60K area, and I can add on the next aggressive pullback I see after price breaks the orange level with volume.
Attached video (RO version, cut from the latest YT video).
bitcoin:native
The range of interest given in February has been very good so far.
I said I was waiting for that zone to buy SPOT.
Also in February, the range was hit for the first time and I bought. Then we saw moves below 60K, where I looked for swings on the long side, which I still have active now.
After more than 6 months, we can see that the range was not broken and held quite well.
Daniel retweeted
Markets got me off the beach. :)
Nice move by #Bitcoin and crypto. Similar moves in metals. Obviously a lot of short covering off a 2 month consolidation, but bullish nonetheless.
Little more work to do before a bear market bottom can be confirmed, and a new 4Yr cycle start. Closing out the month strong above (10 month MA) $74k first step, then a weekly close above the $82.8k highs swings the high TF trends back to bullish.
Either way, very close now. Excited to get back to the desk in Sept.
Daniel retweeted
68 de zile pana la Midterms ! ⏰
38.1% sanse de rate hike 16 Septembrie !
74.5% sanse de rate hike 9 Decembrie !
Trump face tot posibilul sa impinga un eventual rate hike dupa midterms. Pentru asta are nevoie de disinflatie motiv pentru care nu va mai ataca Iran-ul in aceasta perioada. Va declara misiune indeplinita cu aplicarea unor sanctiuni mici care sa nu deranjeze partea adversa.
Asta va duce la scaderea pretului petrolului care ii va facilita disinflatia de care are nevoie pentru no rate hike in septembrie. Si uite asa isi da un boots de credibilitate pentru midterms.
Earnings-urile companiilor mari nu au fost rele overall si problemele din piata muncii nu au accelerat. Asadar pentru aceasta perioada de 68 de zile as ramane bullish rezervat. Asta pana la proba contrarie, care ar putea veni din cresterea dobanzilor la bondurile americane, deteriorarea accelerata a pietei muncii si/sau cresterea brusca a inflatiei.
Daca va ajuta informatiile like/share sa mai trezim algoritmul muribund datorita activitatii mele reduse din ultima vreme ! Multumesc 🩷
