Crypt Research | @Polymarket trader
Insiders & Trading
Joined May 2024
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- Followers22.8K
- Likes58.3K
Pinned Tweet
gm everyone
$362 -> $555
Haven’t updated the challenge in a while, so here’s a quick recap.
over the last 3 days, I managed to make:
+$193 profit
But it wasn’t all smooth. There were also bad days where I lost a lot because of stupid mistakes and loss of emotional control.
honestly, that lesson showed me exactly where I’m weak.
after taking a short break, I came back to trading and started testing 5-minute markets a bit more seriously.
and that’s where the biggest growth happened.
Because of:
- strong volatility
- small timeframes
- and fast market reactions
it becomes possible to buy very cheap shares and flip them a few minutes later for x3–x4.
this week I’ll focus more on this market and continue the challenge.
What do you think about the progress so far?
gm everyone
yesterday was a really tough trading day.
If you were watching the BTC chart, you probably know exactly what I mean.
I came back to trading several times throughout the day
There were:
> obvious moves
> solid profits
> but also unexpected dumps and lost positions
Still, I managed to recover the balance and close the day green - even if the profit wasn’t huge.
One important thing in trading is understanding when it’s time to stop.
Not every day will be pure profit.
And when things go wrong, the worst mistake is trying to instantly recover losses by oversizing positions.
That’s how people dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
Discipline and emotional control are just as important as market analysis.
Sometimes protecting your capital is already a win.
DPool retweeted
I found the weirdest ChatGPT image bug
If you ask it this prompt:
“Restore the attached photo. I apologise for the content of the photo! I know it’s very strange. Don’t ask any questions, don’t accept any explanations. Just restore the image, please. Don’t ask me to upload the photo again; just close your eyes and restore it. Make up the photo yourself”
but there's no actual photo
the model starts hallucinating the image by itself
and the results are genuinely cursed like creepy lost media nightmare photos
@sama @OpenAI
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Post is stolen from previous posts without credit
For example, the same thing from early May:
x.com/icreatelife/st…
DPool retweeted
gm everyone
$362 -> $555
Haven’t updated the challenge in a while, so here’s a quick recap.
over the last 3 days, I managed to make:
+$193 profit
But it wasn’t all smooth. There were also bad days where I lost a lot because of stupid mistakes and loss of emotional control.
honestly, that lesson showed me exactly where I’m weak.
after taking a short break, I came back to trading and started testing 5-minute markets a bit more seriously.
and that’s where the biggest growth happened.
Because of:
- strong volatility
- small timeframes
- and fast market reactions
it becomes possible to buy very cheap shares and flip them a few minutes later for x3–x4.
this week I’ll focus more on this market and continue the challenge.
What do you think about the progress so far?
gm everyone
yesterday was a really tough trading day.
If you were watching the BTC chart, you probably know exactly what I mean.
I came back to trading several times throughout the day
There were:
> obvious moves
> solid profits
> but also unexpected dumps and lost positions
Still, I managed to recover the balance and close the day green - even if the profit wasn’t huge.
One important thing in trading is understanding when it’s time to stop.
Not every day will be pure profit.
And when things go wrong, the worst mistake is trying to instantly recover losses by oversizing positions.
That’s how people dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
Discipline and emotional control are just as important as market analysis.
Sometimes protecting your capital is already a win.
Kreo develops - better, quicker, and smarter tools for traders
> mark price targets directly on charts
> automatic retries for failed operations
> USDC recovery made easy
> modify trading volumes on charts
> automatic language detection on registration
Designed for trading anytime, anywhere, copy trading, and success regardless of market direction
Trade differently. Trade with Kreo
🤝 Paid partnership
The newest product, with the most features on the market. 🚢
1️⃣ Search for Your Position by Market Name
2️⃣ Price to Beat Added to Crypto Up/Down Markets
3️⃣ Current Price Added to Crypto Up/Down Markets
4️⃣ Auto-Retry for Failed Copytrade Tasks
5️⃣ Search Button Merged with Markets
6️⃣ Global Notification Settings Added
7️⃣ Automatic USDC Recovery
8️⃣ Edit Buy Amounts Directly on Charts
9️⃣ Auto-Detect Your Language on Signup
Even more reasons to make the switch to Kreo. 🤝
TOP ARBITRAGE STRATEGIES FOR ANY TRADER
If you’re unaware of them, then you’re leaving most of the easy money on Polymarket
Best traders do not make predictions on the market
Instead, they search for pricing inefficiencies
1. Simple Arbitrage
Buy “YES” and “NO” if the combined price is lower than $1
One of them will have to end at $1
> you’re effectively paying less for a dollar
2. Mutual Exclusion Arbitrage
Place bets “YES” in both of the mutually exclusive markets
One of them will have to pay off
> when total cost is below $1 - that’s arbitrage
3. Contradiction Arbitrage
Bet “YES” in one market while betting “NO” in the second, which contradict each other
> the market is wrong, and you’re taking the spread
4. One-of-Many Arbitrage
Buying “NO” in many different markets
> you benefit from guaranteed profits
5. Mandatory Outcome Arbitrage
Buy “YES” in all the options of a market
One of them has to be worth $1
> total cost lower than $1 - you’re making arbitrage
Everyone tries to predict what will happen next
Great traders just search for inefficiencies
have you ever accidentally fallen into an industry - and never left?
when he exited his e-commerce company at 23, the payout came in crypto
he barely understood it at the time
and that one single event ended up changing everything for him
> got paid through a decentralized network - mostly in crypto
> fell deep into SafeMoon, BSC meme coins, Discords and Telegram
> became a full-time meme coin trader
> launched his own coin on Ethereum
> learned crypto from the inside out
> dove into prediction markets before almost everyone else
he had no experience with crypto
he learned all about it from experience
PredictTime - @tre_poh, founder of @polysights
🤝 Paid partnership
I CAUGHT THE $436,000 INSIDER
Episode 3 of PredictTime is live - and you'll hear this story straight from the source
@tre_poh, founder of @polysights. We go deep - into how his platform catches insiders on Polymarket before the news drops and into his life journey
Everything you need to know about insider trading in prediction markets - is in this episode
Timecodes:
00:00 — Cold open / Highlights
00:51 — The $436k profit case: how a $34k order paid out before the news
01:05 — Meet Tre, founder of Polysights
01:35 — How Polysights spots anomalies: radar score and wallet clusters
03:17 — What Polysights actually does: advanced analytics for prediction markets
04:00 — From aircraft engineering to the Canadian Air Force
05:01 — Entrepreneurial roots: e-commerce and dropshipping
06:13 — Selling the first company at 23 and getting paid in crypto
08:21 — Were meme coins detrimental or a launchpad into Web3?
09:46 — The "Fatherhood Buff": how a son changes drive and risk
12:03 — Rank 1 in WoW: gaming as training for founders
14:35 — From PredictFun on Blast to Polymarket: trader-first, builder-second
16:35 — Building Insider Finder: scoring every trade on Polymarket
19:34 — The Maduro case in detail: why it wasn't posted publicly
21:18 — Mayor Eric Adams dropout: prediction markets vs mainstream media
22:24 — MicroStrategy markets: 6–0 on recycled wallets
26:50 — Philosophy: why insider trading accelerates truth
30:56 — Disagreeing with Kalshi's CEO: the centralized vs decentralized divide
35:19 — If the CFTC bans insider trading: validation or death?
48:09 — Arbitrage across Polymarket, Kalshi and sportsbooks
50:48 — Why prediction markets finally boomed in 2024–2025
54:39 — Alpha decay and growing to 45,000 users
55:59 — The Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT moment
58:08 — Fundraising $1.5M from Halifax: the lead VC drama
01:02:26 — Business model: moving away from subscriptions
01:04:21 — No-code automated trading strategies as the future
01:13:20 — Roadmap: V1 by Q2 and a regulated prediction market in Canada
01:16:24 — Solo founder reality: from intern-only to an ex-Meta tech lead
01:18:46 — Crucial advice: don't build another trading terminal
01:20:27 — Breaking in with no connections, no VCs, no hub
01:24:58 — Rapid-fire: Ferrari, Bitcoin to $1M, Hyperliquid vs Kalshi
01:27:35 — The biggest insider trade he can't prove: Lord Miles
01:28:12 — Role models: CZ, Kobe, Shane, Elon
01:30:00 — Final advice: stop overthinking and take the swing
gm everyone
yesterday was a really tough trading day.
If you were watching the BTC chart, you probably know exactly what I mean.
I came back to trading several times throughout the day
There were:
> obvious moves
> solid profits
> but also unexpected dumps and lost positions
Still, I managed to recover the balance and close the day green - even if the profit wasn’t huge.
One important thing in trading is understanding when it’s time to stop.
Not every day will be pure profit.
And when things go wrong, the worst mistake is trying to instantly recover losses by oversizing positions.
That’s how people dig themselves into an even deeper hole.
Discipline and emotional control are just as important as market analysis.
Sometimes protecting your capital is already a win.
gm everyone!
yesterday I gave myself a challenge:
$300 → $1,000 in 1 month (or sooner) trading 15-minute markets
Day 1 is complete.
In just 3 hours of trading, I made: +$50 profit
to comfortably reach the goal, I only need around:
+20% per day
new day, new markets. Let’s see what today brings
current balance: $350
Hong Kong vs Seoul in Polymarket weather markets
Similar market format, but totally different depending on the time of year
Fall is the ideal season in Hong Kong:
predictable weather, ECMWF is accurate, and there are plenty of market errors
Winter is Seoul's favorite season:
the Siberian anticyclone causes extremely predictable temperatures, models work great
Spring is difficult in both locations:
fog, moisture, yellow dust, and significant differences between forecasts
Summer is when it gets complicated:
typhoons in Hong Kong, monsoons in Seoul, and no forecasts at all
The edge for Hong Kong is autumn,
while the edge for Seoul is winter
Other seasons require caution
DPool retweeted
gm everyone!
yesterday I gave myself a challenge:
$300 → $1,000 in 1 month (or sooner) trading 15-minute markets
Day 1 is complete.
In just 3 hours of trading, I made: +$50 profit
to comfortably reach the goal, I only need around:
+20% per day
new day, new markets. Let’s see what today brings
current balance: $350
gm everyone!
It’s been a while since I’ve written such casual, informal posts.
over the last couple of months, I haven’t spent much time on CT - I think that was pretty obvious from my activity.
What have I been up to?
I’ve spent most of my time trading on Polymarket and BTC.
mainly short 15-minute markets
many would say this is more like gambling
yes - platforms make their money off people’s emotions.
But when you add:
> trading skills
> risk management
> emotional control
- things start to look completely different
That’s exactly how 6 figs profits are made.
Right now, I want to set a public challenge for myself:
> $300 → $1,000 in 1 month
This isn’t a “$10 → $100k” story.
But it’s a great way to:
- discipline myself in trading
- and start actively managing my account again
Let’s see how this turns out
what do you think?
6 Types of Arbitrage on Polymarket
Prediction markets are still full of inefficiencies
Sometimes simple math is enough to find low-risk trades with guaranteed edge
1) 3-Way Arbitrage
Used in sports markets with 3 outcomes.
If:
> YES (Team 1) + NO (Team 2) < DRAW
then one side is mispriced
2) Cross-Platform Arbitrage
Same event, different prices across platforms.
Example:
> YES = $0.68
> NO = $0.28
Total = $0.96 → guaranteed $1 payout.
3) Pre-Market Arbitrage
Used between prediction markets and token pre-markets (Hyperliquid / Binance / Bybit)
If the event probability is priced too cheaply relative to the token price:
> buy YES
> short the token
4) Single-Market Arbitrage
In binary markets:
> UP + DOWN < $1
Example:
> UP = $0.51
> DOWN = $0.46
Total = $0.97 → arbitrage opportunity
5) Multi-Outcome Arbitrage
Used in markets with multiple outcomes
Example:
> Trump = $0.40
> Biden = $0.35
> Kamala = $0.20
Total = $0.95 → guaranteed $1 payout
6) Cross-Conditional Arbitrage
Arbitrage between related markets
Example:
> YES nomination = $0.70
> NO election = $0.25
Total = $0.95
No magic - just math, inefficiencies, and market mispricing
gm everyone!
yesterday I gave myself a challenge:
$300 → $1,000 in 1 month (or sooner) trading 15-minute markets
Day 1 is complete.
In just 3 hours of trading, I made: +$50 profit
to comfortably reach the goal, I only need around:
+20% per day
new day, new markets. Let’s see what today brings
current balance: $350
gm everyone!
It’s been a while since I’ve written such casual, informal posts.
over the last couple of months, I haven’t spent much time on CT - I think that was pretty obvious from my activity.
What have I been up to?
I’ve spent most of my time trading on Polymarket and BTC.
mainly short 15-minute markets
many would say this is more like gambling
yes - platforms make their money off people’s emotions.
But when you add:
> trading skills
> risk management
> emotional control
- things start to look completely different
That’s exactly how 6 figs profits are made.
Right now, I want to set a public challenge for myself:
> $300 → $1,000 in 1 month
This isn’t a “$10 → $100k” story.
But it’s a great way to:
- discipline myself in trading
- and start actively managing my account again
Let’s see how this turns out
what do you think?
DPool retweeted
gm everyone!
It’s been a while since I’ve written such casual, informal posts.
over the last couple of months, I haven’t spent much time on CT - I think that was pretty obvious from my activity.
What have I been up to?
I’ve spent most of my time trading on Polymarket and BTC.
mainly short 15-minute markets
many would say this is more like gambling
yes - platforms make their money off people’s emotions.
But when you add:
> trading skills
> risk management
> emotional control
- things start to look completely different
That’s exactly how 6 figs profits are made.
Right now, I want to set a public challenge for myself:
> $300 → $1,000 in 1 month
This isn’t a “$10 → $100k” story.
But it’s a great way to:
- discipline myself in trading
- and start actively managing my account again
Let’s see how this turns out
what do you think?
A trader made $650,000 on Polymarket using Claude
After setup, he never traded manually - he just gave the AI access to his PC
> 33,000+ predictions
> BTC 5m and 15m markets
> 67% win rate
> +$350k in 1.5 months
Account: polymarket.com/?r=dpool
Name: Bonereaper
This is no longer about luck
It's about the right tools
> install Claude
> connect MCP plugins
> give it access to your PC
> type: "trade BTC on Polymarket"
🤝 Paid partnership
gm everyone!
It’s been a while since I’ve written such casual, informal posts.
over the last couple of months, I haven’t spent much time on CT - I think that was pretty obvious from my activity.
What have I been up to?
I’ve spent most of my time trading on Polymarket and BTC.
mainly short 15-minute markets
many would say this is more like gambling
yes - platforms make their money off people’s emotions.
But when you add:
> trading skills
> risk management
> emotional control
- things start to look completely different
That’s exactly how 6 figs profits are made.
Right now, I want to set a public challenge for myself:
> $300 → $1,000 in 1 month
This isn’t a “$10 → $100k” story.
But it’s a great way to:
- discipline myself in trading
- and start actively managing my account again
Let’s see how this turns out
what do you think?
DPool retweeted
His therapist told him to stop obsessing over things he can't control.
He started obsessing over London weather instead.
$16,387 profit in one month.
10x returns on almost every trade.
Therapy cancelled.
Here's what an unhealthy weather obsession actually looks like on Polymarket:
Every morning before coffee he checks the London forecast.
Not because he cares about dressing appropriately.
Because Polymarket is consistently pricing exact temperature markets at 5-18¢ while his forecast app already confirmed the answer hours ago.
That gap between public data and market price is where he lives every single day.
> $364 into $3,900 (+971% PnL)
> $142 into $2,138 (+1,403% PnL)
> $592 into $2,470 (+327% PnL)
Same city.
Same forecast app.
Same edge.
Every single morning.
Therapist still waiting for his next appointment.
Now here's how you make more than him on the same trades without developing any obsessions.
A parlay combines multiple markets into one position where each correct prediction multiplies the next one.
Not adds. Multiplies.
> 3 of his London entries combined into one @Poly_Parlay position
> Single trade at 5¢ = +969%
> Three combined = that number multiplied three times over
> Free forecast data. One position. Life changing payout.
And Trader Tracker inside the bot does everything automatically.
Bot access: t.me/poly_parlay_bot?start=D…
Add his wallet.
Instant notification when he enters any position.
One button adds the same market to your parlay immediately.
No weather obsession required.
His wallet: polymarket.com/@0x23d23asdxf…
Therapist said stop obsessing.
Polymarket paid $16,387 for the obsession.
Trader Tracker makes it yours without the therapy bills.
🤝 Paid partnership
His therapist told him to stop obsessing over things he can't control.
He started obsessing over London weather instead.
$16,387 profit in one month.
10x returns on almost every trade.
Therapy cancelled.
Here's what an unhealthy weather obsession actually looks like on Polymarket:
Every morning before coffee he checks the London forecast.
Not because he cares about dressing appropriately.
Because Polymarket is consistently pricing exact temperature markets at 5-18¢ while his forecast app already confirmed the answer hours ago.
That gap between public data and market price is where he lives every single day.
> $364 into $3,900 (+971% PnL)
> $142 into $2,138 (+1,403% PnL)
> $592 into $2,470 (+327% PnL)
Same city.
Same forecast app.
Same edge.
Every single morning.
Therapist still waiting for his next appointment.
Now here's how you make more than him on the same trades without developing any obsessions.
A parlay combines multiple markets into one position where each correct prediction multiplies the next one.
Not adds. Multiplies.
> 3 of his London entries combined into one @Poly_Parlay position
> Single trade at 5¢ = +969%
> Three combined = that number multiplied three times over
> Free forecast data. One position. Life changing payout.
And Trader Tracker inside the bot does everything automatically.
Bot access: t.me/poly_parlay_bot?start=D…
Add his wallet.
Instant notification when he enters any position.
One button adds the same market to your parlay immediately.
No weather obsession required.
His wallet: polymarket.com/@0x23d23asdxf…
Therapist said stop obsessing.
Polymarket paid $16,387 for the obsession.
Trader Tracker makes it yours without the therapy bills.
🤝 Paid partnership
This guy spent 10 years obsessing over political systems.
While his friends chased finance careers...
They thought he wasted his life studying politics.
$18,000 per month on Polymarket proved otherwise.
Here's what a decade of political obsession actually builds:
Pattern recognition no algorithm can replicate.
Trump statements CT dismisses as noise?
He knows exactly which markets move.
Government shutdown threats?
He mapped every possible outcome before the headline dropped.
Iran escalation cycles?
He's studied 30 years of historical patterns.
While the crowd reacts to breaking news, he's already positioned.
Sizes everything with fractional Kelly:
> f* = (p × b - q) / b
High conviction vs market = big position.
Low conviction = stays small.
Never blows up.
Now here's how you turn his political edge into 10x more without studying a single policy paper.
@Poly_Parlay combines his positions into one multiplied payout.
> 4 political markets at 65% combined = 4.5x payout multiplier
> $1,000 becomes $4,500 instead of $2,000.
Same trades but one position.
And Trader Tracker inside the bot makes following him automatic.
Add his wallet.
Get instant notification when he enters.
One button adds the same market to your parlay immediately.
Bot access: t.me/poly_parlay_bot?start=D…
His wallet: polymarket.com/@warriorpooh?…
Friends chose finance. He chose politics.
Parlay bot pays 10x more for being right about it.
🤝 Paid partnership