First data on how Texas's in-person early voting electorate shifted from Day 1 to Day 2. No major counties yet, so don't read too much into it, but shifts have been modest. The two largest counties in this batch, by far, moved a couple of points toward Republicans.

The first of many daily updates to this graphic, tracking the estimated electorate in four key states. I expect all four to finish with more Republican electorates than we're seeing today, but Democrats are off to a strong start in early voting across the board.

Solid Day 1 early voting numbers for Talarico. Our model estimates Black voters made up 13.4% of the IPEV electorate, up from 11.6% in 2024, with an overall electorate of Trump+3 in a state he won by 14. Still early, though, and Day 1 has typically been Democrats’ strongest.

But I'd absolutely do it again. We need more polling, and I love seeing young people passionate enough about elections to spend their own time actually doing the work. That kind of initiative deserves encouragement.

When Wedgewood first appeared, I reached out to their head pollster to try to learn more about them. We spoke on the phone for about 15 minutes. He told me he was a college student at Boston University who had previously worked with SoCal Strategies and had paid for some inexpensive polls out of pocket. He also mentioned that the other member of the team was involved in local Democratic politics in Ohio. They struck me as nice kids with at least some understanding of polling, but obviously no professional experience. With that in mind, we assigned them a D grade and included their polling data on our site. A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt. It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a hell of a lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this.

We'll have more tonight, but Texas early voting opened bluer than in 2024 across key counties, here's a taste below. Day 1 shifts can just reflect changes in when people vote. We need more data, particularly by voting propensity, to have more confidence in the dynamics at play.