Permissionless User-Created Prediction Markets. https://xitter.cf/t.co/j51rMU3RmB

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Joined January 2026
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Peering into the future is now as simple as asking a question! 🔮 User created markets are live! Ask questions, let the market answer. Create and earn: trueo.com
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Who's creating a market for this??
Paper Cardboard Plastic Polymer… What’s next, Fabric?
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CHINA'S Q3 GDP GROWS 4.5% 📊 @zerohedge reports China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year over year, beating the 4.4% estimate. Odds China's NBS reports 2026 full-year growth of 4.7% or higher: 35% Yes. trueo.com/en/market/0xa88c97…
CHINA 3Q GDP GROWS 4.5% Y/Y; EST. +4.4% *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 1.1% Y/Y; EST. +0.5% *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 5.5% Y/Y; EST. +5.5% *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED INVESTMENT FALLS 7.2% Y/Y; EST. -7.3%
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AI WATCH 🤖 OPENAI IS RACING TO SECURE INVESTOR COMMITMENTS BEFORE ANTHROPIC'S EXPECTED MID-NOVEMBER PUBLIC DEBUT, IN A ROUND THAT COULD VALUE IT AT OVER $1.4 TRILLION.
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SUNSET WATCH 🌅 SOPHON PLANS TO SHUT DOWN ITS MAINNET ON NOVEMBER 30, WITH USERS ASKED TO WITHDRAW ON-CHAIN ASSETS BY NOVEMBER 25.
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**1/4** when we announced the Sophon Chain wind-down, we said we'd share the final timeline once it was set. we're now planning the final shutdown of Sophon mainnet for November 30, 2026. if you still have assets on Sophon, please read this ↓
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PAPER WATCH 📄 PAPERTRADE STATES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO MAKE PAPER TOKEN TRANSFERABLE - CLAIMING IT COULD DESTABILIZE PROTOCOL MECHANISM - PROPOSES CHANGES TO SUPPLY ISSUANCE
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Source:
A note on transferability. Papertrade is a complicated primitive, and managing it from a risk standpoint is a complicated problem. The PAPER token is far more integrated into the economics of the primitive than most tokens are in their respective protocols today, and, broadly, was designed to act as a counter insolvency incentive coupled with a rebate mechanism to losing traders. Market makers and exchanges are by far the two most profitable businesses in crypto, and our goal was to try and externalise as much of their margins back to users as possible. We are now just over a week into the life of papertrade and we are becoming increasingly confident that this is both possible, but also a likely outcome as agentic led software becomes the norm. As it stands, the paper token traded as a perp becomes a leveraged bet on bankroll solvency - and being able to short bankroll solvency materially changes the payoff curve of a manipulation attack. The target number goes from the bankroll, to the bankroll + short side exposure on paper. We can, and do limit bankroll size specifically to control this payoff curve and ensure it never becomes existentially problematic, but external perp markets are not something we would have any control over if left to float of their own accord. For example, if our bankroll is $10m, an attack costing $15m manipulating the price of bitcoin or ether is not viable. You simply lose money. If however you were also able to put on $10m of PAPER short side exposure, suddenly an attack costing $15m is very viable indeed. If we were to make the token transferable at this point, we are confident we would quickly enter a state too dangerous to allow any material exposure to be taken on papertrade, an end result that benefits no party beyond the wolves who have done the math on the short and are waiting in the wings with sharpened knives. We would also like to thank the various perps teams who have reached out about pre-market listings for their understanding and patience regarding this issue, and especially to the paragon team who, despite jumping the gun on us, have behaved with the utmost integrity and transparency once a dialogue was opened. Perps on PAPER will always act as a self-limiting exposure ceiling for a token with this type of utility, and we think it would be a shame to limit the growth of papertrade to the extent that allowing perps would necessitate. As such, at this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability. Structurally, papertrade is limited by the quality of the data it receives from hyperliquid, but we strongly believe that hyperliquid has a very large part to play in the future of global exchanges, and expect their books to continue to thicken and strengthen over time. A note on fees. Papertrade launched with a deadband fee from entry of 0.2bps. This means you don't earn anything until the price has moved by 0.002% in your favour. Over the months before launch, we played around with many different curves and fee structures affecting exclusively positions closed very close to entry price in order to try and devise a structure that removed the edge against the bankroll low time frame scalp bots have, whilst also minimally impacting the traders around which and for whom the product was devised. We were never able to find anything we were absolutely happy with and so decided to stay with the 0.2bp deadband fee through launch. This has however meant we have had to be very restrictive when it came to certain parameters, such as OI caps. Now, however, we have enough live data to fully understand exactly which strategies work, and to make the necessary changes to stop them. The changes we are making will have an on hours and off hours fee mode to account for the relative differences in liquidity the hyperliquid books see between these two time periods, and the ease with which low time frame moves are signalled. The changes we are making will only affect positions closed within 6bps of entry (0.06%) in on hours, and 10bps (0.1%) in off hours. Any trades closed above these threshold price shifts will see no change to their fees at all. On a look back to launch basis, these changes affect the profitability of bot strategies roughly 15x more than they do normal traders, for whom a very small proportion of overall winnings come from within this band. These changes should serve to flatten much of the edge our microfee structure necessarily creates on low time frames, and will help with long term exchange sustainability. This should hopefully allow us to open up parameters such as OI caps a little more so those of you who wish to can put on the size you want to, when you want to. It is possible these changes are still too lax, and that further revisions to this structure may be necessary going forwards. If so, we will notify users ahead of time. A note on paper tokenomics. In conjunction with the fee changes, we will also be implementing a change to the token issuance curve. Going forward, every $1 lost mints a fixed share of PAPER's supply at that moment, roughly 0.1% of supply per $1M lost (the exact number depends on the mint rate at the time the contracts are upgraded). PAPER minting in and near insolvency will also change, switching from a flat 100 per $1 of loss, to a time weighted multiplier on the curve growing over time, effectively acting as the house running a discounted auction on its own future cash flows. This change also removes the risk of the paper-mint-straddle-attack, temporarily pushing the protocol insolvent by closing only the winning side of a large straddle position and then attempting to mint as much paper as possible. In the immediate term these changes will only have a very subtle effect on PAPER minting, but in the long run will structurally change the outlook of the system beyond the first few weeks, serving to slowly dilute out older holders and leaving more recent users with an advantage. Reconstituting the PAPER system into something much closer to the exchange rakeback it was intended to be. We have been very reticent to touch this particular aspect of the system for obvious reasons, but ultimately we believe that these changes provide all users with the optionality to take a smaller piece of a potentially much larger pie than the current dynamic might necessarily allow. Other, miscellaneous notes. These contract upgrades will include a few other contract changes, including the addition of builder codes so that builders can utilise papertrade in whatever capacity they choose to. This will be a whitelist only to begin with and we will have more for you later in the week on where/how this will be rolled out. A small change to contract permissions on the reward distributor and a change on how below bust closes are processed by the exchange are also included, largely to block gas griefing attacks. These changes will be pushed to docs in full over the coming day, and we will further announce once the changes are queued into the timelock pending final security passes, scheduled to go live 24 hours after that point. Final note. We'd like to thank everyone that has tried out papertrade over the last 10 days. It has been a labour of love building this product and both of us have been taken aback at all of the positive feedback we have received. We'd also like to thank all those of you who have spent considerable time musing on the system we have built, and much of your advice has been taken onboard and will likely affect the colour of what papertrade becomes going forward. We know some of these changes will be unpopular with some, but we would not be making them if we did not feel them to be absolutely necessary. - blurr, jez
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CRYPTOQUANT CEO'S HYPE SENTIMENT CALL 🔥 CryptoQuant says HYPE is the most bullish crypto asset by analyst sentiment. Odds on HYPE above $90 on November 1: 50% Yes. trueo.com/en/market/0x9a7b6a…
🔥 NEW: “The most bullish crypto asset by analyst sentiment is $HYPE,” says CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
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GOVERNANCE WATCH 🗳️ LATTICE IS PROPOSING TO CLOSE GATEWAY DAO AND DISTRIBUTE ITS CONVERTIBLE LIQUID ASSETS, WHICH THE PROPOSAL COMMITTEE VALUES BELOW $40,000.
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Replying to @LatticeExchange
@LatticeExchange is proposing to close its Gateway decentralized autonomous organization and distribute convertible liquid assets from a treasury the Proposal Committee values below $40,000. Gateway was intended to help third-party projects launch, build communities and access trading. The committee says adoption did not materialize. It backs closure citing @Conste11ation’s announced end to Gateway support and shift toward artificial intelligence products and networks intended to increase activity directly. It also cites @PacaSwap’s permanent closure after a breach and concerns about future artificial intelligence threats. A substantial rebuild would be difficult with remaining funds, it argues. Liquid assets convertible into $DAG would be distributed in DAG without fees. The Gateway treasury would receive no distribution. The ballot offers: - Option 1: Close and distribute to veLTX holders only. - Option 2: Close and distribute to all LTX holders, including locked tokens. - Option 3: Reject. Options 1 and 2 combined must outweigh Option 3. If accepted with a tie between the two recipient options, another vote follows. Eligibility would be recorded seven days after voting ends - this is not a payment date. 3 supplied ballots all select Option 1, without stated reasons. Proposal: snapshot.box/#/s:latticegov.…
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SHUTDOWN WATCH ⏸️ ECHO PROTOCOL IS WINDING DOWN AFTER NEARLY TWO YEARS, HALTING NEW DEPOSITS, BORROWING AND STAKING WHILE KEEPING WITHDRAWALS AND REPAYMENTS AVAILABLE.
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🚨 ALERT: Echo Protocol announces it is winding down after nearly two years, halting new deposits, borrowing and staking while keeping withdrawals and repayments available.
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ETH STAKING EXITS NEAR INFLOWS 👀 @Cointelegraph reports almost as much ETH is exiting staking as trying to enter. Trueo has it at 53% Yes that ETH is above $2,600 on November 1. trueo.com/en/market/0xe34d39…
📊 MARKET: There is almost more $ETH exiting staking than there is trying to enter. Once we cross that line, it'll be something we haven't seen since late 2025.
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QUBIC UPDATE 🚨 PHALCON SAYS THE WEAK-SEED VULNERABILITY WAS REPORTED AS EARLY AS FEBRUARY AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN PROPERLY ADDRESSED THEN. xitter.cf/Trueo_/status/21119542…
SECURITY WATCH 🚨 QUBIC SAYS AN ATTACKER DRAINED 1,404 WALLETS OF AROUND 2.94 TRILLION QU IN UNDER TWO HOURS.
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.@_Qubic_ was reportedly exploited due to weak wallet seed generation. The issue now appears to have been fixed: github.com/qubic/wallet/comm… However, the vulnerability was reported as early as February and does not appear to have been properly addressed at the time. The current fix also appears to follow the recommendation in that report: replacing Math.random() with crypto.getRandomValues(). Reports affecting critical components such as wallet seed generation deserve timely attention and follow-up.
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ASIA WATCH 🌏 SOUTH KOREA'S FINANCE OFFICIALS WILL REPORTEDLY MEET MAJOR CRYPTO EXCHANGES TUESDAY AS CALLS GROW TO DELAY THE COUNTRY'S CRYPTO TAX, SET TO START IN JANUARY.
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