
Degenerate philosopher; Co-Host @Riskonpod Fomo: https://xitter.cf/t.co/yWCSDI2T5G JTX: https://xitter.cf/t.co/nLDC9PWvzC
Joined April 2022
- Tweets2.9K
- Following1.7K
- Followers6.3K
- Likes1.3K
Imagine how cool it would be if I don’t get liquidated on this trade or even get back to break even, or god forbid, somehow make money.
Had to panic add a bit of margin over the weekend, but looking ok here for continuation, pending btc strength
Risk On is live with @cryptoklotz
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RKjpbZne…
Onchain Is Back, Quantum FUD Debunked, Doug Funnie Mode | EP 96 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RKjpbZne…
Literally all they have to do is embrace the retards, and the retards will take them to the promised land
Core CPI came in at +0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY. Market expectations expected above 2.4-2.5%, but not this high. For context, Polymarket only priced 11% odds on this outcome, so it is definitely a hotter print than anticipated.
Obviously not what we wanted to see, but relatively muted reaction from stocks and crypto so far, which is encouraging. Perhaps an 80k retest on bitcoin:native but its looking like much of the downside was priced in.
Keeping an eye on the charts, looking for relative strength on alts
People panic capitulating their on chain bags into already corrective charts the day before CPI uncertainty/overhang is resolved
This is why nobody will remember your name
A bit or risk on the inflation data tomorrow but zcash:native and solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn look like obvious longs here
The Never Ending Dip | EP 95 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwDEe…
I believe today’s price action was just karmic punishment for all of you liquidating yourselves on purpose to “farm” paper trade
Bitcoin's proof of work has done around 2^96 hashes over all time. Breaking the ZKP's in Zcash requires a minimum of 2^120 elliptic curve operations assuming ECDLP. If you had a dedicated ASIC, an elliptic curve addition would cost around 10-100x more than SHA2.
So today breaking an Elliptic curve would cost around 1 billion Bitcoin-hashrate equivalents. AKA a billion times the hardware buildout of all Bitcoin mining ASICs, dedicated to break this.
If a hypothetical billion X improvement came in, you'd need a chip buildout on the level of bitcoin mining before you can break anything. While competing against all the hyperscalars for fab-space.
AKA plenty of warning time, for a recovery process that takes a couple day response time max.
was surprised to see so much panic today, likely made worse by other things like rates and oil that distorted the actual substance in the AI/math talks
tl;dr — you're all gonna be fine. the leading chains of today have ample means to be able to respond to something like this in the unlikely scenario of it happening
longer:
i) is AI getting better at math? yes
does that imply that it will suddenly shatter foundational cryptography concepts? no
"computer smart. therefore the past work of all mathematicians is probably wrong." is not a logical chain with basis
sure, AI will find flaws in past human work in many areas -- in the same way humans themselves find flaws from other humans in many areas. this is how science works
if we find issues, we discuss them, fix them, and evolve
it takes large leaps of complete doomerism to assume that all teams, individuals, and ecosystems will fail at literally everything ranging from planning to prediction to detection to mitigation on all time horizons simultaneously
further, in these scenarios, AI is exclusively seen as a tool *only* for max destruction but never as a thing capable of a solution
so, it can apparently break everything but not fix anything. i hope you can see the bias here
for one, we already know this to be false given recent scaling of formal verification via ai
it is of course easier for AI to make progress in fields and topics that are relatively less looked at vs something like foundational cryptography which all intelligence agencies, nation states, and high-level mathematicians are heavily incentivized to break, all the time
ii) the most unhinged doomsday scenarios assume an instantaneous attack with no lead time by a random person outside of law and jurisdiction, which I would posit is simply not possible
even ignoring the fact that the labs would get there first (and hence the government)
it's not as if one can just break all cryptography on all chains via their beefed up cloud hosts over a few hours or days or even months
that not only assumes an algorithmic advancement with unfathomable magnitudes of improvement but also completely ignores the gargantuan operational complexity and opportunity cost of doing a global heist (vs the trillion other more important things you can do with an ECC break)
it would be vastly impressive if a slight speedup could be found, but the speedups required to fulfill the doomsday fantasies of people on here are not grounded in anything
iii) importantly, assume I am completely wrong for all of the above
well even in that case, upgrading the systems in a world where ECC breaks is entirely possible and feasible (and has been worked on for decades)
in fact, there are many ways of doing it that we know of depending on the existing constraints of the system!
imo, the biggest "risk" in all this is that a frontier lab publishes something about a slight speedup in the future, and then everyone extrapolates that to default to panic which then leads to a selloff like today
I don't think this is all bad because it never really hurts to think about and plan for these things on the protocol level, but the "retail" panic was certainly a huge self-own by the people pushing this stuff
doomerism is not going to win in crypto
People read one emotional Matt Green tweet about public key encryption, spent 0 seconds thinking about it, and decide to panic.
Sure ECDLP will be broken with QC's one day. But there's so many levels to this being wrong to panic over.
- 0 actual progress on attacking anything
- We have tons of alternate plans available.
- Quadratic advantage hash-based PKE
- Lattices
- Multivariate polynomials
- A whole field of KEM's from fine grained cryptanalysis. (Fun fact, works even if P=NP)
Sure you can wake-up and choose doomer and be wrong.
We have decades of cryptography to draw from on for all the above options, AND how to build a lot of what we want from UX tweaks without PKE. PKE just made a lot much easier, and less web of trust routing like.
He asked the question and he got the response. Now we find out if he pays attention and actually follows up or if it’s another suit who somehow ended up with a “head of defi” role.
Meme coins and people trying random experimental shit is the short term path to sustained revenue and it’s what unlocks all the big picture tokenized equity stuff you want to be able to showcase to shareholders.
Win the degens —> win it all
Or pretend memes don’t matter and become a meme like all the other corpo chains
Replying to @fern
0 support for your chain rn
- No listings other than Cashcat
- Coinbase/Upbit are listing your eco coins before you
- No mentions of your chain during the summit
- Vlad was “hands on” 2 months ago w/ subtle tweets now is doing nothing
You guys had all the momentum. Was the first Onchain PVE moment in a long and RH just let it die. Going down the same path as BASE is not what you want
RH chain was making millions of dollars a day. If you capitalize on that and push it, it will be you’re #1 highest grossing product in your own ecosystem
Every coin is going to 0. People are losing faith. There is a huge opportunity with tokenized stocks paired to memes that can ignite the next onchain bullrun. Best meta we’ve had in a long time. Take advantage of it.














