Is #Bitcoin math? What if BTC is following a predictable timeline of tops, bottoms, and blow-off peaks? Here’s a model projecting the next potential ATH and why $190,000 by 2029 is aligned with previous cycles. Bookmark this. Let’s dive in: 🧵👇 Last cycle: Bitcoin topped ~Oct21 > Nov22 (~378days) Last bottom to top: ~Nov22 to Oct25 > (~1064days) This cycle: Bitcoin topped ~Oct25 > Oct/Nov26 (378days?) Next bottom to top: ~Oct26 to Sept/Oct29 > (~1064days?) If we do live in a simulation, by this model, the bottom of this bearmarket will be somewhere in Oct/Nov this year. Drawdowns last 3 cycles: 2013-2015: -86.9% 2017-2018: -84.2% 2021-2022: 77.5 If we apply a similar softening trend (say, another ~6% drop), the 2025–2026 drawdown would likely land around: 77.5% - 6% = 71.5% & that would put $BTC around $36k-40k ATL in 2026. We will be exiting the accumulation zone somewhere in Oct27, +350 days after the bottom, like we did from Nov22 to Oct23. Based on this model, the next top for Bitcoin will be somewhere between $180,000 - $190,000 in Sept/Oct2029. The conclusion and investment thesis part, for investors who understand that Bitcoin is a longterm allocation: Potential CAGR for the next 3 years: ATL 2026 = ~$40,000 ATH 2029 = ~$190,000 Then the potential CAGR will be ~67.8% year from 2026 till 2029, beating by far #SP500 and most of the other TradFi assets. As all models, they work until they don't, so take this with a grain of salt, more like a potential guideline based of what happened till now. NotaBene: the indicator you see on the chart is Ichimoku, the only indicator I've been using for the past 10 years constantly and the red+green Clouds are just potential projections of its structures. If this helped frame your long-term thesis, hit that like & ReTweet 🫡

OIL #WTI +15% Higher since the October post Clearing a major resistance as we speak and opening up the next big areas: $105 $109 and extended to $115 Will discuss about this and the impact on Indexes plus Bitcoin / crypto in a few hours with @i_am_jackis live on our substack streams: jackis.substack.com/ substack.com/@paradigmweekly

Tomorrow, live on Substack with @i_am_jackis Where markets stand, where we think they’re heading and your questions answered live. 18:30 Bucharest | 16:30 London | 11:30 NY

Being short-term bearish is not the same as being a doomer and calling for a crash or recession, big difference. More about it in today’s Substack edition 🫡

Local top on ethereum:native , loading local top on bitcoin:native This Friday on @WOLF_Terminal , I've explained my positioning going into the weekend: "Because I still see Oil higher, I have the following shorts: BigBanks - KBW, TLT, ETH, BTC and Nasdaq, so going into the weekend, I'm short risk assets." Talkers talk, traders trade! More to come tomorrow in the weekly Substack newsletter 🫡

I want to say sorry For making you think outside the box. For questioning what usually feeds your confirmation bias. For posts that aren’t vague “ bitcoin:native 130k by year end” one liners or “BTC 30k because of doomer reasons.” For showing charts that don’t come with a rocket emoji. For looking at liquidity, flows and structure instead of vibes. For not telling you what you want to hear, but what you need to hear. For asking why $COIN is in a weekly downtrend if Bitcoin is so bullish, only for it to be -9% last few days. I’ll keep doing it, so continue to follow me if you’d rather be uncomfortable than wrong.

I think this should be the motto for Twitter: You correct the wise & you gain a friend, You correct the fool & you gain an enemy.

If someone tells you TA doesn’t work, they’re either lazy, undisciplined, or both. Meanwhile, the SPR keeps draining currently at 282.98M barrels, levels we haven’t seen since the early ’80s. And the war just added another front with Yemen, tick tock.

Probably not allowed to ask this here anymore, but here goes: If the BTC bull run already started, why is $COIN the biggest Bitcoin custodian on the planet, still stuck in a weekly downtrend?

Inflation data continues to come hot CPI hot yesterday and PPI hotter today If you thought we don't have more hikes on the table, then you need to go back to your macro framework and study more. If someone tells you that this is the reason we drop on U.S indexes and Bitcoin / altcoins, run away, they need to learn more about price action. All major indexes, Bitcoin and ETH were in Distribution mode, this data was just the extra bonus.

You are hiding stop losses underneath those ethereum:native $2350 floorboards aren't you?

Ok brother, studying it on ethereum:native

Every Fed speaker this month: “policy is sufficiently restrictive” CPI : “is it though?” #DXY rally, with U.S indexes lower premarket bitcoin:native & ethereum:native still quite stable on the news, but let's see More hikes anyone?

The $ETH video is out 🎥 Same signals that came before the 30% drop in May are lining up again, but this time the context is bit different: In the video: • Bearish TK cross, price below Tenkan and Kijun • Kumo/Cloud thinning out, going from green to red • May vs now, side by side • Why the pullback can be shallower this time • The level that invalidates the whole thesis Let me know your thoughts or questions after you watch the video: youtube.com/watch?v=7Wg6h-xO…

The last time $ETH flashed these bearish signals, it dropped 30% The same signals are lining up again, is this time different? Video coming up later, enable notifications 🫡

Before and After for ethereum:native No 10 indicators, no 10 outcomes, no hindsight trading, just basic market structure and Price Action. -4% in one simple trade with a line on the chart. If this was free, imagine what you get in ParadigmShift on a weekly basis🫡

I would be surprised if ethereum:native doesn't drop at least -4% from here before heading higher. Big test coming up again at $2,400 area

Another week, another market talk with the @WOLF_Terminal 🫡 Equities, Bitcoin and sprinkles of macro