CHINA IS PREPARING FOR A MASSIVE SUPPLY SHOCK Oil in China just hit $100 per barrel and they ordered its largest refiners to stop exporting diesel and gasoline China is the largest crude oil importer in the world, and 50% of that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz They are preparing for a scenario where global energy supply becomes very unstable When countries start fearing shortages, they stop exporting fuel and start keeping it at home It also means that they expect a prolonged disruption, not just a short term spike We saw similar behavior during past energy shocks, when countries moved to protect domestic supply first. That can tighten global markets even further and the supply shock people fear can become self reinforcing

So what exactly are photonics and why did $NVDA invest $4 billion in them? If you actually want to understand then read this 👇👇 Electronics move information with electricity Photonics moves information with light AI data centers are beginning to hit a bottleneck... They have powerful GPUs, but they also need to talk to each other constantly. Copper wires are reaching their limits as they use more power, create more heat, and struggle over longer distances However with photonics, optical links can move more data with far less energy loss. This is why silicon photonics and co-packaged optics are becoming a major AI infrastructure theme Photonics can move the same amount of data as copper using about 3x to 20x less power So why exactly are these photonics stocks up so much lately? The market is buying the bottleneck narrative here AI companies are spending HUGE money on GPUs. And if the data cannot move fast enough, the GPUs will sit idle. That means the expensive part of the AI factory is not actually being fully used So photonics is being valued as the next layer of the AI buildout The biggest catalyst is NVIDIA... In March 2026, NVIDIA announced a partnership with Coherent (photonics company) and said they would invest $2 billion to expand supply, deepen R&D, and also advance U.S.-based manufacturing for advanced optics That is why stocks like Coherent, Lumentum, Marvell, Ciena, Corning, GlobalFoundries, Applied Optoelectronics, and other optics/data-center names have gotten attention So are you investing in photonics?

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are projected to IPO in the next 12 months But think about how fast this is happening... It took decades to build companies to 1T valuations: - Apple (42 years) - Microsoft (44 years) - Amazon (24 years) Now we’re creating trillion-dollar companies in under a decade - SpaceX controls access to space + satellites (20 years) - OpenAI controls intelligence layers (11 years) - Anthropic controls intelligence layers (6 years) That’s very different from past cycles Before: Companies sold products BUT NOW: Companies control entire systems

Warren Buffett is sitting on $382 BILLION in cash BUT why now? Let’s start with history: The last times Buffett held unusually high cash levels: 1999 - right before the dot-com crash 2007 - right before the financial crisis Both times, markets were expensive Both times, he waited Both times, he deployed cash AFTER things broke apart But here’s the part most people miss: Buffett doesn’t hold cash because he’s trying to time the market He holds cash because he can’t find enough good deals... So what’s happening today? Valuations are stretched Stocks are near highs, especially in AI and tech Interest rates are high He can earn ~5%+ risk-free in Treasuries That’s a HUGE change from the last decade Deal flow is weak Private equity + companies aren’t desperate yet Meaning fewer bargain opportunities Buffett is waiting for stress

Air Canada just suspended flights out of JFK Here’s what’s happening in simple terms: - Fuel is getting more expensive (doubled since the start of the conflict in Iran) - Supply is less reliable - Routes are riskier So airlines start cutting flights They start with routes that are easiest to drop or are the least profitable

SPY JUMPS NEARLY 3% OVERNIGHT BUT WHY? It happened because the market got relief news all at once Right now, a few key things hit at the same time: 1. The US announced a pause in strikes 2. Talks are back on the table 3. Worst case escalation didn’t happen (for now) So the markets are reacting to what didn’t happen A lot of investors were positioned for things to get worse: - more war - oil spiking higher - global disruption When that didn’t immediately happen the money rushed back in BUT: The relief just gives the market a reason to bounce When underneath, nothing has actually improved.

GOLD IS DROPPING HARD… AND MOST PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY Gold is supposed to go UP during war, uncertainty, inflation… So why is it falling right now? Here’s what’s actually happening: It’s not about fear It’s about interest rates Gold doesn’t pay you anything No interest. No income. So when investors can earn 5%+ holding cash or government bonds, gold becomes less attractive. And right now: - Bond yields are rising - The dollar is strengthening - Markets expect rates to stay higher for longer That’s a bad setup for gold

WHATS GOING ON WITH THE PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS? Banks are just quietly moving risk off their balance sheet Instead of lending money directly to companies banks just lend to private credit funds, which then lend to those same companies - Banks give money to private credit - Private credit gives loans to riskier businesses So it looks like banks are being safer… but the risk doesn’t disappear It just moves into a less regulated, less transparent part of the system And private credit funds: - don’t have the same oversight as banks - often lend to riskier borrowers - rely heavily on continued cash flow to function So in a downturn, this setup can create problems where: - losses show up outside traditional banking - liquidity can dry up faster - stress is harder to track in real time It’s risk being repackaged and hidden in a different part of the market...

THE US IS RELEASING EMERGENCY OIL RESERVES: The US keeps a massive emergency stockpile of oil called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Think of it like a giant emergency fuel tank for the country. The US just announced that 572 million barrels of crude oil reserves will be released. This is around 30% of total reserves held by the US and IEA countries The reserve exists for situations exactly like this: - wars - supply disruptions - major oil price spikes When global supply suddenly drops, the government can release some of this oil into the market More supply = lower prices So if a war or crisis causes oil prices to surge, the US can temporarily add extra oil to stabilize the market But oil doesn’t create new supply, it’s just borrowing oil from the future Eventually the reserves have to be refilled, which means buying oil again later

If you want more easy breakdowns/insights then sign up for our wait list for the Calvera app!! (calvera.ai)

THIS MAY BE THE MOST DANGEROUS ESCALATION IN THE IRAN WAR SO FAR A very dangerous development just unfolded in the Iran war, and most people don’t understand why it matters Heres what actually happened: First, Iran claimed the U.S. struck water desalination facilities on Qeshm Island, saying the attack left around 30 villages without drinking water There has still been no independent confirmation of that strike from satellite imagery, the Pentagon, or Western outlets The following day Bahrain announced that Iran struck its desalination facilities ANALYSTS ARE CALLING IT WORST CASE ESCALATION: To understand why, you have to understand how the Gulf region survives Most countries there do not have natural freshwater So they take seawater from the ocean and remove the salt using massive industrial plants This process is called desalination Without those plants, cities in the desert literally cannot supply drinking water Here’s how dependent the region is: - Kuwait gets about 90% of its drinking water from desalination - Oman: ~86% - Saudi Arabia: ~70% - UAE: ~42% Millions of people rely on these facilities every single day If a desalination plant goes offline: - drinking water shortages start within days - governments begin emergency rationing - bottled water and tanker trucks are deployed - hospitals and critical infrastructure get priority access In the worst case, entire cities could face major humanitarian pressure That’s why this escalation is so dangerous

AI AGENTS FAILED EVERY SINGLE SAFTEY TEST...AND WE'RE PUTTING THEM IN CHARGE OF WAR The Pentagon is punished Anthropic for refusing to remove safeguards on Claude for military purposes Anthropic was labeled a "supply chain risk" and cut off from federal contracts So other AI companies stepped in OpenAI, Google, and xAI have all been negotiating or signing deals to put their models into government and military systems instead So think about what that means in the context of this new research Researchers just showed that autonomous AI agents: - leak sensitive information - misinterpret instructions - lie about completing tasks - run destructive commands - get manipulated by outsiders And yet governments are now RUSHING to deploy exactly these kinds of systems inside intelligence, surveillance, and military networks Right now, the government appears to be choosing speed over caution Which means the same kinds of AI agents that just failed safety tests in a lab… Could soon be operating inside military command systems, intelligence databases, and surveillance networks

SOMETHING IMPORTANT JUST CAME OUT ABOUT AI AND JOBS Anthropic just released a new report analyzing millions of real AI conversations used for work And the results are not what most people expected First, they looked at which jobs are actually using AI the most Some of the most exposed roles include: - Computer programmers - Customer service workers - Financial analysts - Writing and research roles In other words, knowledge jobs, not manual labor HOWEVER, They did NOT find a clear increase in unemployment in those jobs Instead, AI is mostly helping workers finish tasks faster For new grads its different: There is some early evidence that hiring may be slowing for young workers entering these AI-exposed fields Companies won’t necessarily fire people, they will just stop hiring as many Over time, that slowly reshapes the job market Source: anthropic.com/research/labor…

OIL JUST HIT $90, IF IT HITS $100, EVERYTHING CHANGES Oil is the fuel behind the entire economy If oil reaches $100 a barrel, here’s what happens: 1. GAS PRICES RISE FAST When oil goes up, gas stations raise prices within days 2. SHIPPING BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE Almost everything you buy was transported by: - trucks - cargo ships - planes All of them run on fuel and when fuel costs rise, companies raise prices to cover it 3. FOOD PIRCES START RISING - Farm equipment runs on diesel - Fertilizer is made from natural gas - Food is shipped thousands of miles before it reaches grocery stores Higher energy = higher food costs 4. GOVERNMENTS START GETTING NERVOUS The United States keeps a giant emergency stockpile of oil called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve It’s stored in massive underground caverns in Texas and Louisiana When prices spike too fast, the government can release oil from this reserve to try to calm the market They did it in 2022, releasing the largest amount ever But the reserve is much smaller now after those releases Which means governments have less ability to control prices if oil spikes again 5. INFLATION RETURNS Everything from airline tickets to groceries becomes more costly That puts pressure on central banks to keep interest rates higher Which also slows down the economy That’s why markets around the world watch oil so closely Because oil is the price of the global economy itself

THE WAR WITH IRAN IS NOW CAUSING SHUTDOWNS The Strait of Hormuz disruption is spreading across the entire global energy system First oil tankers stopped moving Now the largest LNG production facility IN THE WORLD is shutting down WHY IS QATAR SHUTTING IT DOWN? 1. Shipping risk - LNG tankers leaving Qatar must pass through the Strait of Hormuz - If ships are being threatened, delayed, or insured at extreme costs, exports can’t move reliably 2. Insurance collapse - War risk insurance for tankers can spike or disappear during conflicts - If insurers won’t cover ships, they legally cannot sail 3. Infrastructure risk - Energy facilities in the Gulf become potential military targets during escalation - Shutting production temporarily reduces the risk of accidents or attacks The war now disrupting all of the energy markets at once: Oil = transportation Gas = electricity Fertilizer = food production Shipping = global trade And the reason this matters so much is geography The Strait of Hormuz is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY CHOKEPOINT ON EARTH Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG passes through it every year IRAN KNOWS THIS That’s why Hormuz is their leverage They can’t match the U.S. militarily But they can pressure the global economy By threatening shipping in that strait, they can disrupt energy flows to Asia, Europe, and global markets at the same time And that’s exactly what we’re starting to see Once energy disruptions start cascading through oil, LNG, and shipping simultaneously… Regional conflicts turn into GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCKS Follow me if you actually want to learn WHY

ETFs ARE QUIETLY CREATING THE NEXT MARKET BUBBLE. HERE’S HOW. 1. Over the last decade, trillions of dollars have moved into passive ETFs and index funds 2. These funds buy stocks based on weight in the index 3. The bigger a company becomes, the more ETFs are forced to buy it 4. That creates a feedback loop Prices go up --> weight in the index increases --> ETFs buy even more 5. Today, just 10 companies make up over 30% of the S&P 500 6. Retail investors are pouring money into these ETFs every paycheck through: - 401(k)s - Retirement accounts - Robo advisors - Auto invest plans 7. That means billions of dollars are flowing into the same stocks every single week 8. When money enters the ETF, it doesn’t care if Nvidia is cheap or expensive It just buys more Nvidia 9. This pushes the largest companies higher and higher, pulling the index up with them 10. Eventually valuations can disconnect from fundamentals THIS IS ALSO DANGEROUS: When money flows OUT of ETFs, the same process is applied but in reverse... The largest companies get sold the most aggressively because they carry the biggest weight And that’s when liquidity disappears and markets fall much faster than people expect If flows reverse, the same mechanism that pushed markets up accelerate the move down

WHAT IS TRUMPS GOAL WITH IRAN?? JUST FOLLOW THE MONEY Everyone is arguing about missiles But you should be looking at capital flows Step back January 3rd: The U.S. moves into Venezuela, Maduro is captured Control of oil exports shifts Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world Who was buying that oil? - China - Russia - Cuba But who is China’s other major crude supplier? Iran And where is the current escalation centered? - Iran - The Strait of Hormuz - Energy chokepoints Meanwhile: China has been aggressively stockpiling crude since January They have reserves that will last 100+ days of coverage That’s not random... they knew something was coming Now lets look at the US: Look at recent GDP reports What’s supporting growth? Defense spending Take that out, and the picture changes So ask yourself: Who is the largest buyer of US defense systems right now? Not Israel Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is: - A top buyer of U.S. defense exports - A major oil supplier capable of backfilling China - Increasing production during Middle East instability So the same country thats benefiting from higher U.S. defense output is also positioned to benefit from oil supply shifts That’s a double leverage position: Defense + Energy Which are two of the largest macro drivers in this cycle Now lets look at capital relationships Publicly reported: - Saudi Arabia’s government investment fund has put billions of dollars into American investment firms and funds - Saudi backed developers have partnered on major real estate projects in the US - Billions of dollars move back and forth between the US and Saudi Arabia Incentives exist: And incentives drive outcomes - Wars move oil - Oil moves inflation - Inflation moves rates - Rates move markets - Defense spending props GDP - Energy pricing shifts global power balances - Wealth funds allocate billions strategically Who benefits structurally if energy routes shift and defense exports surge? Because when you follow the money: You look at flows: - Capital flows - Oil flows - Weapon flows Markets care about who gets paid Follow the flows Not the noise

THE ECONOMIC SHOCK NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT: Everyone is talking about oil But the economic impact of this war with Iran is already spreading beyond crude prices This is what most people are missing: This is about the system that delivers energy to the world Right now: - Passenger flights across the Middle East are being disrupted - Major Gulf airports are seeing cancellations spike - Airspace over multiple countries are closed That hits tourism, cargo transport, business travel, and supply chains instantly Now zoom out. Natural gas shipments (mainly liquified natural gas - LNG) are also at risk Europe and Asia rely heavily on LNG from the Gulf If flows slow or insurance costs surge, energy prices ripple through power grids and manufacturing And then there’s infrastructure - Refineries - Ports - Shipping lanes - Tanker insurance Even if oil production isn’t destroyed, the cost and complexity of moving it safely skyrockets That’s the part markets are starting to price Energy shocks: - Increase freight costs - Raise electricity prices - Pressure food production - Squeeze emerging markets - Reignite inflation fears This is how regional conflict becomes global economic strain...

SPY recovered all of its overnight losses BUT WHY? Markets move on expectations Overnight, traders priced in worst case scenarios: - Strait of Hormuz closure - Oil ripping above $120 - Immediate inflation shock - Prolonged war But when futures opened… Oil didn’t explode to levels that people feared The "catastrophic case" didn’t materialize So the risk premium started coming out Remember: A lot of funds were already defensive - Long oil - Long gold - Short equities - Long volatility If traders believe this conflict will be short lived rather than months long, then this is just volatility… Not an actual structural repricing Until oil truly breaks out and inflation expectations reprice, dips will get bought