Director, Center on Public Safety and Justice, NORC at the Univ. of Chicago| Team: @CaterinaGRoman @NPSCoalition| Essays: https://xitter.cf/t.co/bZVOZ7REar|

Washington, DC
Joined July 2010
For interested folks, the article is here: johnkroman.substack.com/p/hi…
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What’s driving the historic homicide decline—and how can we sustain it? CCJ convened four dozen crime scholars to assess nearly 50 possible explanations. 📅 Join our webinar on 10/21 at 3pm ET to explore what they found. ➡️ Register: events.zoom.us/ev/AvR-Uo8_ty…
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Ya gotta love Tom Morello. He's not hiding his politics.
You can’t do progressive solidarity politics while also denying the basic legitimacy of the country and the American national community. slowboring.com/p/destroying-…
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I hold out hope that one day the sports franchises in the Washington, DC metro area realize that the name of the city is the "District of Columbia" and not Washington. But. Not yet. nytimes.com/athletic/7677666…
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What is also widely ignored is that the reason there is so much less car crime and street property crime now is due to market-based solutions making cars harder to steal and cameras ubiquitous. Not cops or prevention.
There’s a decent amount of denial about how much worse urban crime was in late-20th century America. If you don’t remember stuff like The Club, removable car stereos, or subway graffiti ask your parents or local LLM.
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Raises an important question: when is it critical to know the mechanism vs the outcome? I'm pro-mechanism research, but, if the child poverty tax credit also reduces crime, do we need to know exactly how people spent the savings?
This is a slide from Terence Tao's 'Math 2.0' public lecture yesterday evening at Caltech. I am highly confident that, if the cure actually worked, almost any Stage 4 cancer patient would tell you that human comprehension of its mechanism is completely irrelevant to them.
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Would add: it's very telling that many TV series fall off a cliff at precisely the moment where the book ends and they have to start writing from scratch.
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We underestimate how much 9/11 changed how we view crime and how much more fearful it made us. Before 9/11, people’s crime sentiments actually tracked with national crime statistics. After 9/11, crime rates and crime fears do not track at all.
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Worth pointing out that less than 200 children are abducted by a stranger each year. Far more children drown in pools.
I can think of no greater mission than rescuing our children.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
More than 50 law enforcement officers have been charged with or accused of misusing Flock and other surveillance dragnet systems to stalk women and ex partners. washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
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Look, a model of how hyperscalers share funding.
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics. The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra. The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
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What are the costs, benefits, and public safety tradeoffs of women’s incarceration? Join experts Elias Diggins, Victoria Kuhn, and @JohnKRoman for a discussion grounded in findings from new CCJ research, moderated by CCJ's Stephanie Kennedy. Register: events.zoom.us/ev/AsKgy4CUxm…
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Not enforcing traffic laws is terrible policy, makes the public less safe and reduces government legitimacy. But it is important to also note these are not crimes per se, and the widespread massive reduction in violence and property crime is real.
Replying to @mnolangray
This insistence that crime and disorder aren't really issues in American cities, when in fact many cities just basically decided to stop doing law enforcement post-2020, just feels very Orwellian and tone deaf.
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I would just add to this great list, if you sit very quietly while driving a car full of teens they will forget you are there and you will learn all the things.
In doing 100% of the family chaffeuring, I learned (1) Adolescent males will disclose personal things while looking straight ahead next to you that they will not face to face (2) Shuttling kids lets you see them interact with their friends and you get to know them better too (3) Singing along with the radio with your kids in a car is a lot of fun (4) As they grow up, kids realize you are doing them a favor by chaffeuring them and that is one of the ways they know that you love them. YMMV (literally) but if I had replaced myself with a robot chaffeur, it would have cost our family a lot more than money. slowboring.com/p/this-mother…
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Gun homicide has fallen well below its pre-pandemic level. But firearm suicides are up year after year. That split tells us something important: the relationship between gun availability and violence is not simple. Gun sales may help explain the suicide trend more clearly than the homicide trend.
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I totally agree with Keith here. Our policy debates have become one sided cost benefit analyses where we cite the costs but not the benefits, or vice versa. Makes for a terrific debate on twitter but terrible policy making.
None of the critiques here of @germanrlopez's recent NYT essay even mentions the well-being of San Franciscans who don't use drugs: the kids who walk to school through open-air drug scenes, the spouses who are abandoned, the shop workers going bankrupt from shoplifting. The dismissal of the harm done to people who don't use drugs is a key reason why the perspectives here have been rejected by policymakers and the public. In public health, *everyone* should matter, not just people who use drugs but everyone else too. nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opini…
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