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I feel like everyone is going to figure out at the same time (in 1-4 months or so) that our biggest problem today with AI isn’t actually an AI problem.
The problem is we’re not giving our AIs clear enough definitions of what we want.
So our AIs basically go off and build in some direction, but not exactly the direction you want to go in.
This problem has three main parts:
1. You knowing what you want
2. You being able to articulate that thing thoroughly and accurately
3. Your AI being able to do that thing
Everyone assumes the problem is with number 3, but it’s usually a combination of 1 and 2.
The next biggest advancement in AI (or one of them anyway) is going to come from harnesses building this concept of ideal state, evals, and hill-climbing directly into their DNA.
In the model providers can help as well by eliciting this from the user and building this before any work is done.
Ideal State, Evals, and hill-climbing. This is where it’s at.
💯. And as predicted.
1. Better and better open models with no controls on them
2. Tons of new harnesses designed to help people do harm across cyber, organized crime, etc.
3. Governments start making it illegal to use open models.
And guess what:
reuters.com/legal/government…
Transition from vulpocalypse to breachpocalypse is here. IR firms are saturated & turning away work. Now one hacker unleashed AI agents on 1,200+ websites, compromising 100+ for ~$5,000 in tokens. $50 per hack. Agents won and compromised targets. reuters.com/legal/government…
ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴍɪᴇssʟᴇʀ 🛡️ retweeted
Having Fable 5.5 be a major jump on some of these would be fantastic, but the real spear in the side of OpenAI would be removing the Fable Stress.
So basically having Fable work just like Opus does now, but maybe use your limits a bit faster. But nothing dramatic. And without its own dedicated limit.
Double spears and a Thanos snap would be if they did this while raising limits somehow to reduce even more anxiety. But that's just wishful thinking.
Either way, can't wait to see it.
Fable 5.5 probably definitely tomorrow.
Rumors:
- Better at reasoning and intuition
- Infers intent rather than taking instructions literally
- More ambitious. Ask it to fix a bug and it fixes the deeper root cause
- Does creative, “out-of-the-box” thinking
- Can invent algos to predict stocks
- Bestows complete and eternal enlightenment on first response
AND I’d bet it has major efficiency gains like Opus 5.5. Icing on the cake would be usage for all subs.
Prepare yourself in mind, body and spirit.
Having Fable 5.5 be a major jump on some of these would be fantastic, but the real spear in the side of OpenAI would be removing the Fable Stress.
So basically having Fable work just like Opus does now, but maybe use your limits a bit faster. But nothing dramatic. And without its own dedicated limit.
Double spears and a Thanos snap would be if they did this while raising limits somehow to reduce even more anxiety. But that's just wishful thinking.
Either way, can't wait to see it.
Fable 5.5 probably definitely tomorrow.
Rumors:
- Better at reasoning and intuition
- Infers intent rather than taking instructions literally
- More ambitious. Ask it to fix a bug and it fixes the deeper root cause
- Does creative, “out-of-the-box” thinking
- Can invent algos to predict stocks
- Bestows complete and eternal enlightenment on first response
AND I’d bet it has major efficiency gains like Opus 5.5. Icing on the cake would be usage for all subs.
Prepare yourself in mind, body and spirit.
Definitely feels super fast to me.
Love the continuous improvements.
Cloudflare is going to start scoring bots on behavior over time, such as honoring robots.txt, etc. Love it.
blog.cloudflare.com/verified…
You sound completely awesome so don’t take this as criticism.
Most of the stuff you’re talking about here is captured much better and more differently in the models already.
You shouldn’t give it help with technical coding concepts. It wastes your context window and can make output significantly worse.
What I recommend is using your harness’s context files to describe how you like your code to look. Personal preferences. Style. Favorite languages. Etc.
Basically, what, not how.
Try it. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
I created a new system of measuring work output called Deeds that addresses this issue. workdeeds.ai
But to answer your question (since I asked the same one), it's because PRs are collaborative artifacts. They're very much needed when there are tons of people in a codebase. Or at least more needed.
I created Deeds because more and more code is now going to be made by single builders.
Why are you still using pull requests?
Is it for code review?
If so, do you really think your or your colleagues catch bugs and mistakes that an Opus 5.5 or Fable or Astra won't find? You can literally spawn all three of them and have them check four times each.
(Also, don't tell me you don't have a "stamp plz" Slack channel or group chat somewhere.)
Is it for knowledge sharing?
Surely there's better ways for that now than the PR, no? We have models that can generate explainer videos, presentations, podcasts, games, quizzes, walkthroughs, ... for any piece of code it can reach.
Is CI the reason?
Well ackshually, CI means continuous integration and its original meaning is the *opposite* of having long-lived branches and PRs.
But, leaving that aside, your agents are hopefully already running the tests before they push something, and hopefully they can run as long as they want and don't block you so they can run the whole test suite and generate "irrefutable proof" and end-to-end demo videos and so on... And so they run the tests and confirm and then you push to a branch and everything runs again and then you merge and then it runs again? That doesn't make sense, does it?
Maybe you work in open source and you accept contributions, in which case I can't speak to the value of pull requests. It's been 2 years since my last OSS contribution. But from what I heard, the time of the PR is coming to an end in OSS too?
I honestly don't get why people still stick to PRs.
With agents you can now move 10x faster, you can finally do real continuous integration, and get more confidence in the changes the agent made.
Don't slow yourself down by having all the changes pile up in a PR.
ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴍɪᴇssʟᴇʀ 🛡️ retweeted
Elon Musk flips a vehicle upside down and everyone claps and cheers. But when I do it, suddenly I'm "recklessly endangering children" and "unfit to be a school bus driver".
As someone who's basically a math fan and not really in the scene deeply (I've read like 10 good books on high-end math), someone help me answer this:
If true math is about creativity and thinking, and imagining different shapes of reality and such, and then the actual equations and such are more secondary, then why isn't AI just massively exciting to mathemeticians?
Why aren't they like, "Holy crap, this means I can just riff on ideas with my agent, and think, and be creative, and go on hikes and take low-dose mushrooms, and work out a lot, and think about math even more....and then go back with my agent and have it help me work out all the supporting equations...."
What am I missing about this?
Two new intents under my /Explain skill:
/ef explain fundamentals
/qf quiz fundamentals
Abstraction is only ok if you know enough about what's going on to still be effective. I'd argue that's still a high bar when it comes to system design.
This fake AI video that's going around about the flying Tesla roadster is, um… not a fake AI video
It's an actual video wtf
I think the big add is that even if they lose on a particular sub, it's because someone is CRUSHING with the sub.
Which means they're making way more stuff. More ideas. More projects. More apps.
Which means more AI.
This is all a "pie bigger" move. It's not zero sum.
Anthropic actually loses far less than I imagined off the $200 subscription. It’s likely that the subsidized plans are actually very sustainable and may never go away.
It's widely said that inference is quite profitable. This turns out to be true, and can be computed from first principles by estimating out cost of GPUs, electricity, datacenters, etc. On paper it might cost something like $0.10–0.30 per million input tokens and $0.50–2.50 per million output to serve Opus 5.5, and they sell it for $4 and $20.
The problem with coming to the defense of AI economics by saying inference is profitable is that it makes no sense to decouple inference from training. Afaict, no company has yet recouped training costs for a model from profits generated from serving that model. A model today is served for a month or two, maybe less, before the next one replaces it.
If only the AI companies could serve these models for a little longer before having to race to train the next one. They would get filthy rich off inference.
If only they could all agree to slow down…
🧠 Unsupervised Learning NO. 547 is out.
I think we got AGI this year, in the form of Claude Tag. It can look at everything someone does at work and offer to do all of it. It's just not evenly distributed yet.
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