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$BTC Trading back into the range and testing the 4H 200MA.
Still a lot of equal highs around $84K where a good amount of short interest entered after the hot CPI print last week.
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
Token unlocks don鈥檛 always dump price, but ignoring them completely is how you end up holding supply that someone else has been waiting months to sell.
Always know what鈥檚 coming before you size in. Especially on long term holds.
This doesn't mean you should always stay away from projects that are still unlocking tokens, but make sure there's some good momentum or some form of buyback in place to offset those unlocks.
No momentum in the market + Big unlocks is eternal bleed lower. This has been the case for almost every coin that launched over the past few years.
$BTC As long as green holds, all you need is some momentum to ignite and the trend is back on and should see continuation quickly.
High timeframe retests are often ugly/messy. Especially on lower timeframes. But in hindsight when zoomed out, they often make sense and seem "easy".
That's why waiting for confirmation of high timeframe candle closes is so important.
$BTC Still sitting at its big support & resistance level.
This has been the 3rd drawdown of 7% or more since the local bottom at $58K.
RSI levels have been reset and sentiment is quite neutral overall. So that's positive.
In terms of price action, the trend is still clearly up. But the bulls would want to get the next leg going soon because sitting at a major level like this for too long is waiting to fall through at some point.
$BTC Loves following this pattern. During 2023-2025 we saw the same during the entire run up.
1. Volatility low, compression high, sentiment worsens
2. Sweep local lows (sometimes several times)
3. Retake previous low
4. Quick move towards top of range
5. Big move outside of range into new highs
Yet, during every consolidation, calls for a top happen and people willingly sell their coins. The easiest thing to not have this happen to you is to wait for candle closes and to see if a "break" below sees any follow through.
As you can see in these cases we had a few small breakdowns and price action below the initial support levels. Yet, there was never any considerable follow through lower. This means a lot of absorption is taking place.
Then when price recovers, sellers are mostly out and it flies with added short fuel too.
In today's case, $83K is a good first level for the daily closes to watch. From there, if bullish, you'd want to see quick acceleration to $87K+ without too much hesitation. Generally this takes less than a few days if the past 2 cases are of any indication.
$WLD Has remained strong during all the volatility.
$0.58 is the level to break for a move higher. Been in this range for about a month now.
$WLD Has been very volatile, lots of big intra day moves.
But this chart is shaping up in an interesting way. Volume hasn't been as great as the June move but above $0.65 this accelerates quickly.
Biggest thing holding this down is of course the still large unlocks which will obviously also become more on an USD basis when price goes up.
But there does seem to be some relative strength in this and a single decent headline could push this above that big $0.65 level.
The OpenAI IPO is also interesting to this but that one is unlikely to occur anytime soon for now.
$BTC First shorts getting squeezed. But the majority of them will cover higher than this. Lots of equal highs around $84K are the target to squeeze those out.
$BTC Has been very undecisive in October so far.
Price did take out the liquidity below $80K and has chopped around more since.
The biggest liquidity cluster sits between $83K-$84K which marks the local range high. It also corresponds with open interest that entered in that region that is still holding.
$BTC Bulls need to get a bounce going soon or the floor falls through.
This support has been tested many times now while the $83K+ region has been rejecting price. Both major levels in the short term.
Now caught in between the two, I assume a bigger move ignites when we see a convincing break of either.
$BTC Has been unbothered by OIL price action for the past few months.
If anything, it is more positively correlated than inversely correlated. The latter we clearly see with (Tech) stocks that tend to go risk on or off based on the direction OIL is trading.
Bitcoin has either joined directionally with OIL or even in recent weeks it held stronger relative to OIL's direction. Acting very different as to what stocks have been doing.
Obviously the duration & sample size is small, but it has still been going on for a good few months by now.
In the end, Bitcoin tends to do what it wants.
Yes, it takes on macro and risk on/off environments from stocks etc.
But it is never a reliable correlation. Crypto can be weak or strong for months completely opposite of what other markets are doing.
Then during uncertainty it tends to trade 1:1 with stocks for example.
Conclusion: Just trade what you're seeing now and how the market is behaving. Don't value too much what other markets are doing or the macro environment you're expecting. Because it tends to throw people off more often than not.
$BTC Has been very undecisive in October so far.
Price did take out the liquidity below $80K and has chopped around more since.
The biggest liquidity cluster sits between $83K-$84K which marks the local range high. It also corresponds with open interest that entered in that region that is still holding.
$BTC Not the worst weekly candle in the end. Still trading at the big support & resistance area.
Do think we'll see a decisive move here pretty soon, especially since markets in general are pretty volatile and are looking for a bigger move soon.
$BTC.D Remains strong during this correction. Alts giving up ground while $BTC has been holding steady.
Bitcoin has been gaining against alts, stocks, metals, most assets over the past few weeks & months.
That is what you'd want to see to break out of this consolidation. BTC to lead, alts to follow later.
Because too much buying pressure and speculation on alts takes away strength from Bitcoin.
$BTC.D Making another push for it. No real big moves have happened on here the entire year.
Honestly, with how much some alts ran up and how little people have really cared about their BTC vs Alts portfolio distribution, I don't think it would be bad BTC to take the spotlight for a bit.
Upside is that it gets a lot more bid and it can rally much easier than if the majority of the market is speculating on alts.
Of course, alts will still run if BTC makes new local highs, but if BTC outperforms it usually makes for the strongest and most steady rallies. The ones where you can see big percentages in a month. Then after we can continue the altcoin speculation & outperformance again (still selectively of course).
$BTC Attempted to break back into the range and $83K+ level.
It has been fighting the 4H 200MA which has been acting as resistance for some time now.
Above there, we can target those ~$84K equal highs from the week prior. Should start seeing some shorts getting squeezed above.
If BTC fails to retake $83K and dribbles back down to $80K again, that's a sign of weakness for me and I'd be expecting lower into the mid $70Ks at that point.
But the easiest to grab liquidity still sits above for now.
So much for "Black Monday".
Crypto up, index futures up, metals up.
Pretty big as well.
Still don't get where all the excessive fear came from but the same happens every time these extreme calls are being spread around the timeline.
Anyways, back to normal.
Think this is about the 3rd or 4th time just this year that people call for a "Black Monday".
As far as I know, those previous cases BTC front ran that by dumping during the weekend. Hence, making the case for a weak stock market on Monday more sense.
In this case not much is happening and I feel like it's just a lot of fear from the past few days of price action in especially the stock market.
If this year has shown us anything it is that markets really don't care about whatever is going on (to a certain extend).
Especially crypto has not been reacting to headlines and has been doing its own thing the past few months.
Correlation traders have been getting washed out during this time as well.
Over the months there have been just as many days that BTC was "correlated" to the Nasdaq 100 as days it was reversely correlated. So that says a lot.
Obviously if stocks crater deep then yes, BTC will see some weakness too. But I think these calls for "Black Monday" are super exaggerated. Keep in mind this definition was created in 1987 when the Dow dropped -22% in a single day.
People love naming previous big events to current situations and it never happens in the same way, especially when many call it beforehand.
I don't know what color Monday's candle will be but all the fear mongering going on just seems excessive at this point.
Just draw your high timeframe levels, sit back and relax. Don't overleverage (ever), have cash on the side and see how the market develops.
Daan Crypto Trades retweeted
Think this is about the 3rd or 4th time just this year that people call for a "Black Monday".
As far as I know, those previous cases BTC front ran that by dumping during the weekend. Hence, making the case for a weak stock market on Monday more sense.
In this case not much is happening and I feel like it's just a lot of fear from the past few days of price action in especially the stock market.
If this year has shown us anything it is that markets really don't care about whatever is going on (to a certain extend).
Especially crypto has not been reacting to headlines and has been doing its own thing the past few months.
Correlation traders have been getting washed out during this time as well.
Over the months there have been just as many days that BTC was "correlated" to the Nasdaq 100 as days it was reversely correlated. So that says a lot.
Obviously if stocks crater deep then yes, BTC will see some weakness too. But I think these calls for "Black Monday" are super exaggerated. Keep in mind this definition was created in 1987 when the Dow dropped -22% in a single day.
People love naming previous big events to current situations and it never happens in the same way, especially when many call it beforehand.
I don't know what color Monday's candle will be but all the fear mongering going on just seems excessive at this point.
Just draw your high timeframe levels, sit back and relax. Don't overleverage (ever), have cash on the side and see how the market develops.
$BTC Still sitting at its big support & resistance level.
This has been the 3rd drawdown of 7% or more since the local bottom at $58K.
RSI levels have been reset and sentiment is quite neutral overall. So that's positive.
In terms of price action, the trend is still clearly up. But the bulls would want to get the next leg going soon because sitting at a major level like this for too long is waiting to fall through at some point.
Daan Crypto Trades retweeted
$BTC Still consolidating right around its previous highs.
During the down trend, these were the signals to be careful of every time.
But in the past few weeks/months, the bigger market structure has flipped bullish. So that's a big difference to note in today's scenario.
Yesterday's daily candle/reversal shaped up nicely, let's see how the weekly closes.
$BTC Rejecting below its breakout level after chopping around and failing to see continuation.
Good to watch closely here because this is signaling weakness if you see multiple daily closes below $83K and bulls fail to retake it properly soon.
$BTC Chopping around during the weekend with some local liquidity sweeps.
But the $83K+ area remains untested and there's still ample short liquidity in that region.
I think even in a bearish next week scenario, it would make sense for price to take out those positions.
If you see a squeeze into that region and BTC failing to retake $84K+ it could be a decent short trigger.
But I do believe if price trades into that area it will squeeze higher with the fuel it has.
Downside invalidation is sub $80K. At that point we can start preparing for a bleed lower to $75K & $72K as major high timeframe levels.
Just playing things level by level here.
$BTC Still yet to really test the shorts that came in above the $82K region after the hot CPI report on Wednesday.
I suspect price will start squeezing once it tests the entry of the majority of those shorts in the white box. Because most of those positions are still comfortably in profit as we speak.
That fuel should help to push this above last week's highs.
Dream scenario for the bulls would be to do this today but it might be a bit too much to ask right before the weekend.
On the downside, you don't want to start losing ~$81K because at that point this move up will just fully retrace in a Bart move.
But with all the equal highs right above I think from a liquidity standpoint that $83K+ area makes sense to test,
$BTC Prime example of weekend price action.
It's easy to move price when books are thin and liquidity is low.
Makes people think something good or bad is happening while in the end barely anything considerable happens.
When a sizeable move does occur during the weekend, it has usually moved back on Monday.























