co-founder & ceo @sproutfi_xyz | making sense of ai, crypto & global markets | livestreams: mon-fri · 10 am et
Manhattan, NY
Joined May 2022
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everyone's hyped about the anthropic ipo. i'm not chasing it, not even at $1.2t.
look at what happened to spacex and unitree - pumped on day one, then dropped below the ipo price. if you're long-term bullish, be patient. you'll get a better entry.
meanwhile softbank is taking the hit from the us-china ai race. the second-order effects are just starting.
google just took over crusoe's wyoming data center site - $17b investment, 702 mw fuel cells with carbon capture.
yesterday the tape sold ai on "new congress will block data centers." today a hyperscaler is buying the site outright.
quiet signal: buildout isn't pausing, ownership is consolidating.
Nvidia Lost $440 Billion in One Day. Is the AI Trade Over or Is This the Dip? w/ @alvin0617 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2ybAWjWYv…
rough day today. honestly it's a good reminder that the market doesn't owe us anything, and anything can happen.
what worries me a bit is how social trading keeps us all in our own little bubbles, hearing the same takes over and over. that's how black swans sneak up on people.
so let's stay cautious but positive, and just try to be a little more objective with our decisions every day. we've got this.
民主党要严控数据中心？同一场选举，美股AI和韩国芯片崩了，港股科技却涨5.5%：现在能抄底吗？ xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2lgykOXEj…
Democrats Sweep Congress, Dow Rips 1,000. Why Is Texas Coming for AI Data Centers? | w/ @alvin0617 & @US_SupremeShort xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2rJaLrZlQ…
bloomberg: big tech has more than $3 trillion of ai lease and purchase commitments. google alone >$1t, meta >$800b. my bet: whoever holds the funnels wins. and $3t is commitments, not cash on the balance sheet yet. not financial advice. i may hold positions mentioned.
big tech is getting less back for every $1 it spends on ai. except one.
i went through the filings. for every $1 spent on buildout last year, here's how much new yearly revenue came in (by my math):
$GOOGL $1.10
$AMZN $0.88
$META $0.83
$MSFT $0.76
$ORCL $0.47
in 2024 most were at $1.10 to $1.50.
the catch: data center costs hit profits slowly, spread over years. those costs are now growing 1.5 to 5x faster than revenue. so the squeeze on profits is still ahead.
the bull case is real too. signed future contracts are huge: $578B at aws, $683B at microsoft.
$GOOGL is the one getting better. $ORCL is the one to watch: it now spends more on buildout than its total sales.
the spending itself isn't the story. the winners will be whoever turns it into revenue the fastest. that's the number i'm watching every earnings.
Fear Index at 18.8, Chips in a Correction. Do AI Stocks Bounce After the Midterms? w/ @alvin0617 | Guardians Echo ep.104 xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2kEbVQrYL…
where is $BTC going? i checked history instead of guessing
monday, $IBIT (blackrock's bitcoin etf) had $405M flow out, its biggest day since june. $BTC is ~$77.4K now, down about 10% from its recent high
so i looked at every time something like this happened before, and asked one question: was $BTC higher 2 weeks later?
on a normal day: yes, about half the time (53%)
after $BTC dropped 10%+ from a recent high: 45% of the time. a bit worse than a coin flip
after a $400M+ etf outflow day: only 2 out of 9 times. usually more selling came after
but here's the twist
when those big outflows happened while stocks were doing fine, $BTC kept falling (only 1 out of 7 was higher)
when they happened while stocks were also falling, like now, it was 1 up, 1 down. only 2 cases ever
my read: if only crypto is getting sold, people are leaving crypto, and it keeps going. if everything is getting sold, $BTC is just caught in the crowd, and it can bounce once stocks calm down
today is the second case, which history has barely seen. so history leans bearish, but this time might be different, and i'm honest that 2 examples prove nothing
my lean: cautiously bullish. i think this is everything getting sold, not people leaving crypto. but history says i'm fighting the odds, so i'm keeping it small and i've written down when i'm wrong.
oracle is selling $20b of stock + bonds for ai and dumped ~9% today.
my take: the ai bubble bursts when hyperscalers can't raise money anymore. they still can. a big ai dip is an opportunity, not a reason to panic.
full show live weekdays 10am et on youtube & x @cryptomeina
marvell buying $LITE for $115b is good news for ai on paper.
but think about it. if you expected your company to keep booming for the next 2 years, would you sell it now?
lumentum took a ~24% premium, paid in marvell stock, not cash. and the market isn't cheering either: $LITE is down ~13% today and $MRVL ~7%.
and why sign now, in the middle of an ai selloff? in an all-stock deal, marvell's stock is the money. if you think ai stocks could keep falling, you lock in the price while your currency is still worth a lot.
to me it feels more like teaming up to ride out a slowdown than a sign of a boom.
对冲基金两周甩卖200亿美元科技股，明天大选会更糟吗？ xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/2brkRnpLM…
everyone asks if ai capex is too big. i think the better question is who's actually paying for ai?
i went through q3 earnings. here's what i found:
→ cloud is booming. azure +48%, google cloud +103%, aws +39%
→ but the biggest customers are openai and anthropic. openai alone was $10b, ~11% of microsoft's revenue last quarter
→ and big tech invested billions in those same labs. part of that money comes back as "ai revenue"
→ big 4 capex ~$202b in one quarter, roughly double a year ago. by my math capex is growing ~2x faster than cloud revenue
→ microsoft stopped disclosing paid copilot seats. ramp data shows business ai spend flat for 2 months
meanwhile the proven ai money is still ads. meta ads +26%, price per ad +14%. that's merchants paying more for the same pie, not new money.
so the real question: who's the customer's customer?
if openai and anthropic's money mostly comes from investors, a lot of "ai revenue" is investor money taking the long way around.
new money or reshuffled money?
binance hack, day one of withdrawals reopening. what the data actually shows:
→ ~$6.4b stolen, largest crypto theft on record. ~44% frozen. binance says ~95% of losses covered
→ $3.64b net out this morning, ~2% of assets. big, but not a run
→ only ~10% of that landed on other exchanges we can track, mostly okx
→ hyperliquid volume up 7–12% on the week, but deposits actually fell 3%. its big week was the ice news, not binance refugees
→ coinbase and robinhood apps didn't move in the rankings
my read: people didn't switch exchanges, they left exchanges. self-custody wins.
the bigger winner might be whoever holds keys safely. mpc custody isn't new, fireblocks has done it for years. but the day before the hack, google unveiled its own mpc system for institutions. not new tech, just google coming for this slice of the pie. the timing is wild.
still, history says hacks don't change behavior once users get paid back. that's what happened after bybit, and binance is covering this one too. so the real test is the next 2 weeks: does the money come back?
watching