Structural similarities here too between the FTX collapse that marked our bottom and the Binance hack.
Yes, still expect $SOL to fall another 30-40% against $ETH at minimum. Might see a bit of relief to the upside first but doesn't change the ultimate outcome.
Have been talking about this expectation for a while now.
SOL/ETH chart below supports this, and I've already shared the SOL/USD chart that suggests this as well.
"The Stellar Development Foundation actually approached Curve about bringing its infrastructure to the network. Stellar has been building around payments and institutional finance for years, with players like Franklin Templeton and MoneyGram already operating there.
Now Curve is bringing StableSwap to Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform. Since Stellar doesn't run the EVM, the existing Vyper contracts couldn't simply be deployed there. StableSwap had to be rebuilt from the ground up, while keeping the same underlying math."
Curve is now live on @StellarOrg, marking its first native deployment outside the EVM ecosystem.
And I think this is a pretty interesting expansion, especially considering the type of ecosystem @CurveFinance is entering.
The Stellar Development Foundation actually approached Curve about bringing its infrastructure to the network. Stellar has been building around payments and institutional finance for years, with players like Franklin Templeton and MoneyGram already operating there.
Now Curve is bringing StableSwap to Soroban, Stellar's smart contract platform. Since Stellar doesn't run the EVM, the existing Vyper contracts couldn't simply be deployed there. StableSwap had to be rebuilt from the ground up, while keeping the same underlying math.
The reason I like this combination is quite simple.
Stellar already has stablecoins and tokenized financial assets, but issuing these assets is only one part of the equation. They also need reliable liquidity and efficient markets where users can actually move between them.
That's where Curve can add real value. StableSwap provides the infrastructure for assets that should trade close to the same price, making it a natural fit for stablecoin markets.
And the benefits go beyond swaps. Deeper pools can become liquidity sources for lending protocols, help facilitate collateral liquidations and make tokenized assets easier to use across the ecosystem.
As on other Curve deployments, swaps on Stellar generate fees for the DAO.
There's more planned, too. Curve wants to bring its full stack to Stellar, with permissionless pool deployment and improved routing still on the roadmap. FXSwap is also in development and will follow once its audit is complete, opening the door to markets between assets with different prices, such as USD and EUR stablecoins.
I don't think the success of this deployment will be measured by the launch itself, but by how much liquidity and actual usage Curve can attract.
Still, bringing Curve's infrastructure to an ecosystem with this much focus on stablecoins and tokenized assets makes a lot of sense to me.
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
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We've now replenished 90% of the stolen assets, and we're committed to covering the remaining 10%. Our users will not bear the financial impact of this incident.
We've also shared an updated Proof of Reserves snapshot, and we're working towards resuming withdrawals on November 1.
Thank you for your patience and trust. We'll keep you updated every step of the way.
No, actually I should have been more precise with that chart there. This is the range I have on ETH, and I believe we actually printed our first impulse of the next major wave (to 20k+) with that move off the $1500 lows. So ETH imo has completed it's range/consolidation phase and actually already begun the next expansion phase with that first impulse- it's just not obvious to many because technically its still trading within the price region of our corrective range.
Kinda the recurring theme I am seeing on a lot of coins atm- again, assuming $BTC finds a floor here shortly and heads to 90k+ before a larger pullback.
As I said in my last post on ETH, lots of alts poised for some outperformance in the BTC to 90k scenario, (like $SOL in the chart below) but don't get lulled into a false sense of security if we do get these rallies because I think what comes after will be a larger unwind for most.
ETH/BTC is back at our range lows.
IF $BTC can hold it's ground and climb to 90k+ from current levels, would expect relative outperformance on $ETH and a number of other alts. This would send $ETH to $3,000+.
Once again, this assumes BTC is climbing and is less relevant if BTC continues to bleed, but I think this has a decent chance of occurring or else I wouldn't be sharing.
For more context, recommend watching the vid in the quoted tweet if you haven't already.
CRV got hammered much harder than $BTC on this recent drop, but we are now at previously untested local demand on CRV/BTC after cleaning up a bunch of marginal higher lows.
This is where we should start shifting back to relative outperformance against $BTC.
TLDR; if Bitcoin reverses back to the upside from here, CRV should outperform to the upside, if BTC continues down from here, CRV should not drop as much.
In other words- the worst of the damage is likely done for $CRV (and $CVX) with this recent drop.
More context in the video in the quoted tweet- recommend watching if you haven't already.
Trying to record a vid to share my current thoughts but out of town and only have my laptop, running into some errors so bear with me...
And over half a million $CVX. But he is sold out of both now, so that's the silver lining I guess. The definition of forced selling.
Unfortunately our .29 level on $CRV was officially breached, which means our structure has officially shifted for the first time since our .20 lows.
As per my last post: "Moving below .29 indicates we have a completed 5 wave move off the lows, which is still bullish, but allows for a deeper retracement below .29 before a full on reversal."
With the origin of this 5 wave move being at .20, this is now our new "invalidation" point on HTF.
Based on what I'm seeing across the board, I am not seeing any signs of an immediate reversal on majors yet, so my expectation is that we are probably going to go a bit lower before we are ready for a reversal, both on $CRV and on $BTC, $ETH and likely most everything else.
That said, I am just now getting a chance to look at the charts (was driving earlier), so will share more updates shortly.
For now, I'd avoid aggressive entries across the board and wait for the dust to settle a bit.
I've been stopped out of pretty much all my levered longs at this point, but of course spot holdings will remain untouched.
This is absolutely a possibility, but it would also change the general structure of the move up on $CRV.
Holding above .29 is literally the most bullish possibility structure-wise (series of 1-2's) and I've explained in multiple times why this is my primary expectation.
Moving below .29 indicates we have a completed 5 wave move off the lows, which is still bullish, but allows for a deeper retracement below .29 before a full on reversal.
The closest example I can give you of this $BTC back at 24-25k before impulsing aggressively to new ATH at 65k+ and ultimately 100k+:
At the time, MANY were calling for a move down to 21-22k on $BTC, and I repeated multiple times that I was not expecting the 24k lows to be breached and that until/unless they were people were jumping the gun calling for lower targets. I even placed a public options bet on the expected aggressive expansion assuming the 24k lows wouldn't be breached and turned 10k into 240k when the thesis was proved correct (see here: xitter.cf/CredibleCrypto/status/…). The lows were never breached, and what followed was one of the most aggressive rallies in Bitcoin's history.
We are seeing the SAME potential structure today on $CRV. The expectation is, once again, that the lows at .29 will be defended, just as the lows at 24k on $BTC were defended.
If the lows at .29 are breached, then it would be similar to the lows at 24k on $BTC having been breached- not the end of the world (or the higher TF bullish bias), but a shift in structure that has broader implications (no "most bullish" 1-2, 1-2 structure and instead a completed 5 wave move off the .20 lows, which allows for a deeper, longer correction (below .29 but still above .20) before we are ready for the next impulsive/expansion wave to the upside).
So yes, it is possible that we take out the .29 lows, dip into demand at .24-.28, and then see an impulsive move back up, BUT that is not my primary expectation atm because based on the expectation of significant outperformance on CRV (which in turn is based on chart pairings against majors and overall structure) I do believe that we may be seeing a similar situation to $BTC at 24k's playing out at this time in which the .29 lows are defended, rather than breached (even if temporarily).
Update: The current verified total frozen amount is around $3 billion.
Our teams continue to work closely with law enforcement, issuers, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze additional assets.
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Binance will cover all hacking losses.
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We will share a full post-mortem once the investigation is complete. Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates.
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For clarity, the current verified total frozen is $2.54 billion. This figure may continue to increase as our teams work closely with law enforcement, issuers, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze additional assets.
We will only share confirmed figures and will provide further updates as more verified information becomes available.
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