VoteHub

PROJECTION: Scott Colom defeats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a historic upset in Mississippi, which Trump won by 23 points in 2024. The state’s last Black Senator was born a slave, and its last Democratic senator was a segregationist.

We have not been able to independently verify the 885-vote Mississippi Senate update reported a couple of hours ago that extended Colom's lead over 4,000 votes. The latest Hinds County results PDF we have seen does not include those votes and was released after Circuit Clerk Zack Wallace said all votes had been counted. The county election commission's phone line is not working, and its website is down, making verification difficult. This does not mean the reported votes are inaccurate, only that we cannot independently confirm them.

We appreciate the hard work of election workers across Mississippi, who are facing an unusual level of pressure and attention due to this close election. The slow count and limited information should not be attributed to a lack of effort on their part. They reflect broader shortcomings in the state's reporting system and requirements. Election workers deserve our patience and respect as they complete this process.

One way we assess how many ballots may remain in a state like Mississippi is by comparing county vote totals in 2026 with those in 2024. This is an imperfect measure because turnout by county varies substantially between elections, but Jackson County's total is notably lower relative to 2024 than those of demographically similar counties. Affidavit ballots have consistently favored Colom, and we expect any remaining in Jackson to follow that pattern. However, we cannot yet confirm that all absentee and Election Day votes have been reported. Any outstanding ballots in those categories could favor Hyde-Smith. It's unlikely, but definitely possible those ballots could come.

Colom remains in an overwhelmingly strong position. Even with fewer ballots outstanding in Hinds than expected, the remaining ballots *we know about* are not sufficient for Hyde-Smith to come close to overcoming his lead. But this illustrates the uncertainty surrounding Mississippi's outstanding vote we do not have to deal with in other states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, California, Arizona, etc. We had considered the possibility that Hinds had fewer ballots remaining and were monitoring it. I still expect a call by the end of the week.

My rough RCV calculations show Sullivan netting roughly 1,000 votes against Peltola and Hill netting about 7,000 against Begich. Applied to the current totals, Peltola would lead by about 3,300 votes (1.4%), while Begich would lead by roughly 12,000 (5%).