Partner at @RockawayX. prev @blockworks & macro investor. The most profitable arb is time horizon. Progress is boundless🇺🇸 tg: @ryanrconnor.

USA
Joined April 2022
Today we are launching Catapult: an evergreen accelerator for scaling RWAs onchain. RockawayX is partnering with founders to tokenize differentiated, high-yielding assets, then backing them with design, anchor TVL, liquidity support, DeFi integrations, and a mentorship program of the industry’s best. 🧵
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Largest gap between fundamentals and price in my career
call me crazy but I think the Anthropic S1 could be the neocloud bottom this whole thing began when the market puked about Ant's Q3 run rate leak; their economics have now been demonstrated to be rock solid. GPUs including older vintages trading at ATHs if you actually look at the data. agentic driving record token use. think this entire drama is overdone.
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This is precisely what you’d expect an Alibaba model to do no?
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
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& now we're seeing it in the Anthropic data as well. Token demand is highly price elastic: prices fall, consumption increases more than enough to offset the decline Token price down, intelligence up -> revenue up
Public equity investors still do not appreciate this: token markets are *highly elastic* Terra & Luna prices were cut by 20% / 80% end of July respectively. Demand surged 6x / 11x
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
Next up in our Catapult mentor spotlight series: @nickducoff Nick is GM, Institutional at @SolanaFndn, working with TradFi institutions and Solana ecosystem teams to bring assets and capital markets onchain. Before Solana, Nick co-founded and exited two startups, Infochimps and Edmit. His career has also spanned securities law, venture capital, and higher education, giving him a unique perspective on entrepreneurship and building businesses around emerging technologies. Our video interview drops tomorrow!
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CHRISTMAS🎄
*ANTHROPIC TO RELEASE S-1 AT 9AM EST: FOX BUSINESS
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I welcome this development but this is prob more due to data retention policy than mode, right?
>"yeah I'm sure we have reached the top of the AI bubble" > Anthropic: Introducing Opus 5.5 > oh
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
We will enter an age of abundance If we can stop the communists for the next 5 years
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A slight decline would have been your “best case” in 2023
Zooming out, GPUs are still renting ahead of a standard 6-year depreciation schedule Rental price vs. schedule: - H200: +143% - B200: +111% - RTX PRO 6000: +73% - H100: +54% - A100: +9% Most of the gap opened up after April, when token demand took off Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
Companies & outcomes 10x bigger then they were 10 years ago & 100x bigger then 1990s Cursor spiritual equivalent sold for $500m and was considered a huge deal This has a lot of downstream implications
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
“Show me the ROI”
$META head count is falling off a cliff -> Down 15% since last year -> Lowest level since 2020
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Incredible
JUST IN: Jensen Huang says Kazakhstan will become an AI computing hub for all of Europe
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
David Friedberg reveals France's public spending is 57% of GDP: greater than that of communist countries "This chart is a measure of public spending as a percent of GDP; Rand Group Research published it. And you can see the comparison of France's public spending as a percent of GDP, to the peak public spending as a percent of GDP of major communist nations, Soviet Union during, communist Romania, Venezuela under Chavez, and then communist China." "It certainly been a socialist state, right? That's my point. I think this is such a precious lesson for the West to look at. We all think that there's some political problem with Macron or whoever it was." "The more the government spends, the worse the conditions get for its people, not the opposite. And then the people riot and revolt and say that the government's not spending enough and the government needs to be doing more." "Take a guess where the US is today. Federal government spending is $7.4 trillion, state and local government spending is $4.6 trillion. You add those two together, it's $12 trillion out of a $33 trillion GDP. US public spending is roughly 36% of GDP. France today is the same as the US, it's about 120% debt to GDP." "France today is operating its national government spending deficit is 5.4% of GDP. The US is actually 6.2% of GDP. France is I think probably the first to go because they're only growing their economy at half a percent while the US is growing 2.3%." "So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together." "But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff that leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France, all the economic measures are aligned, we're at the same rate, we're at the same set of problems."
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
It is hilarious that super intelligence costs the same as Netflix
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Golden age of capitalism
SITUATION DETECTED: Warhound launched from stealth today with a $200M seed at a $1.2B valuation. Ben Lamm and Palmer Luckey are cloning gene-edited bio-enhanced dogs and equipping them with custom Anduril vests, goggles, and sensors for the military and law enforcement.
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I was asked what my hottest take in tech is: AAPL falls 75% over the next 3-5 years
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Ryan | Catapult RWA Accelerator🇺🇸 retweeted
PHP changes are live. Start patching. php.net/archive/2026.php#202… Huge thanks to coordinated work by @ThePHPF!
PHP sites behind Cloudflare already have an initial set of WAF rules deployed for the known exploit vectors in these vulnerabilities. The rules are available to all customers, including free. We are seeing early attacks emerging and are updating mitigations as new vectors show up. This is a STOPGAP only. Patch as soon as @ThePHPF releases the update at 14:00 UTC today.
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Golden age of capitalism
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10. Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years. Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
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Same feeling
Been obsessed with the stock market since I was a teenager. Have traded through the dotcom bubble, the financial crisis and just about every market mania since. But I’ve never seen anything like the skepticism surrounding AI. Not even close. Every time one bubble narrative falls apart a new one takes its place. Rumors become headlines. Misleading data goes viral. Claims that could be debunked with 5 minutes of research get repeated by major media outlets, influential investors and Wall Street analysts. It’s relentless and honestly pretty fascinating to watch. Of course there will be spectacular failures and massive wealth destruction along the way. That’s what happens during technological revolutions. But I’ve never witnessed this much effort to convince the world that something so transformative is actually one giant speculative bubble destined to take the entire economy down with it. I understand why AI scares people. What I find harder to understand is why so many investors seem to be rooting for it to fail.
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Politicians think you are this stupid
You can't make this up: @EmmanuelMacron claims scenes of riots in France are AI-generated 🤯
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