Economist, retired from EPI. Study trade, manufacturing, jobs, capital flows, exchange rates & financial architecture. NATS fan/bicyclist. Opinions are my own.
Washington, DC/MD/IN
Joined October 2013
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Harris vs. Trump: It’s still the Economy Stupid
· Trump’s massive tax cuts for business & the wealthy will increase government deficits by $5 trillion over the next decade, increasing incomes & wealth for rich families,
· They will increase short- & long-term interest rates,
· Increasing mortgage costs & depressing housing construction,
· Boosting the value of the dollar, stimulating imports & cutting exports, devastating US manufacturing,
· Evicting millions of immigrants will reduce GDP and employment, pushing the US into a recession,
· Trumps tariffs will cost working families $4,000 per year, adding insult to injury
Harris’ policies will build the economy from the bottom up and middle out
· Her child tax credits will raise incomes for working families, stimulating the economy
· Her housing policies will increase supplies and lower costs of homes for first time buyers, including a $25,000 tax credit for first time home-buyers, incentives for affordable rental housing and a $40 billion fund for affordable housing
· Her tax policies will LOWER the federal deficit and pay for family subsidies
· She will support small business with increased tax deductions and smaller increases in capital gains taxes (than those proposed by Biden).
· Harris recognizes that the recent inflation bubble (now largely over) was a global problem caused by covid & the war in the Ukraine, leading to supply chain snarles, food and energy shortages here and abroad, compounded by corporate price gouging which she will address with aggressive anti-trust enforcement
· Harris will stimulate job growth and the economy with lower interest rates, while Trump’s policies will raise interest rates and the value of the dollar resulting in fewer jobs and slower growth of the economy
Today's Head-in-the-Sand Prize Winner: "“We don’t see it. It’s not happening yet,” Powell told reporters this week, referring to any reversal in services inflation." (bit.ly/3X7yIYX) Who is briefing him & how did this miss this Atl Fed chart?
HT @adamshersh for 2 excellent new briefs showing first that removing steel and aluminum tariffs would undermine recovery of these industries, which are critical to our national defense, & to rebuilding CLEAN US infrastructure bit.ly/3Rk2tUT 1/4
The alum. brief also shows that massive, state supported overcapacity has destabilized & eroded domestic production of this critical commodity; now there is only 1 (US-based) producer of military grade aluminum in NATO. bit.ly/3PvKtp1 3/4
Today's BLS Jobs-day report shows that wage growth is CLEARLY slowing, as shown in this excellent tweet by @hshierholz xitter.cf/hshierholz/status/1545… 1/2
This excellent blog by @joshbivens_DC clearly explains why this slowdown in wage growth undercuts ALL arguments for the Fed to continue with mammoth, nearly unprecedented interest rate increases that threaten to pitch the US into recession. 2/2 bit.ly/3ARGMWD
HT @adamshersh for new report, Revoking tariffs will not tame inflation: bit.ly/3OvN41m "At best, removing tariffs would result in a one time" drop of 0.2% in the price level. A one-off drop in PRICES, not a decline in the INFLATION RATE! #china #inflation2022
Rob Scott retweeted
"Biden should ignore the bad advice he’s getting on tariffs... it’s coming from the same groupthink that believed two decades ago that lower tariffs would help China blossom into a thriving, rules-based economic collaborator," writes @ScottPaulAAM.
washingtonexaminer.com/resto…
Rob Scott retweeted
Senior VP of Natl Retail Federation says rolling back tariffs on China won't have any real impact: "I’m not sure you’re going to see a dramatic change...” Letting China off the hook for stealing our jobs and technology for a symbolic effort on inflation? nyti.ms/3y2iIOZ
Rob Scott retweeted
Why are they still at this? WH press secretary in gaggle (about 8 min in) says they are still considering lifting tariffs on China which were imposed because of the CCP's predatory acts. Overall level of tariffs is key as retaliation for injury inflicted. bit.ly/3zCJ5Mg
Today's BLS jobs report puts another nail in the coffin of for ridiculous WSJ claim that "tight labor markets" and rising wages are driving the recent inflation spike, as shown by my colleague @eliselgould here: bit.ly/3PWUr3F
Memo to WSJ editors: You need to fact check your ledes: on.wsj.com/3NcmRoj. Tight labor markets have NOT "contributed to historically high inflation." Rather, "nominal wage growth continues to dampen, not amplify, inflationary pressures" ...1/2
Memo to WSJ editors: You need to fact check your ledes: on.wsj.com/3NcmRoj. Tight labor markets have NOT "contributed to historically high inflation." Rather, "nominal wage growth continues to dampen, not amplify, inflationary pressures" ...1/2
As shown by my colleagues @eliselgould here: bit.ly/3x4rl9I and @joshbivens_DC originally bit.ly/3x4ssWW. It's simple, folks, if wages are growing SLOWER than prices, then they are RESTRAINING inflation. 2/2
Smart 3-part plan from @Davidcayj, based on testimony by energy econ. Robert McCullough, to lower gasoline prices & increase oil production by: a) increasing transparency in oil & gas markets; b) creating incentives to increase oil drilling; & c) taxing windfall oil profits #war
We can punish Putin and have lower gasoline prices.
How? See the latest at @dcreportmedia where a smart economist who explains how Congress can create market incentives with simple policy changes.
dcreport.org/2022/04/05/2583…
Rob Scott retweeted
China continues to trade and supply Russia. US investors' money continues to flow into China. Is anyone looking at how U.S. investors may be helping to support Russia's economy and military actions as a result? As Russia continues its actions, we must tighten sanctions.
United Steelworker President Tom Conway explains how unions play a critical Safeguarding Democracy, based in part on EPI research showing that unions are good for communities & democracy usw.org/blog/2022/safeguardi…
The historic Biden recovery continues with nearly 8 million jobs added since December 2020. This is the fastest recovery in American history, fueled by massive and timely investments in the ARPA and the CARES acts.