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Bottom Fishers Beware! Technology is extremely oversold, and that is a tempting condition for bottom fishing crowd. The Technology sector trailed the S&P 500 by 11.8% over the 21 trading days ending November 5, marking its worst relative drawdown since 2001. However, Technology’s oversold condition is no guarantee that a sustainable bottom is near. If history is a guide, volatility is more likely than a sustained alpha producing period. The chart below plots every occurrence that Technology underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 10% over 21 days since 1990. While several cases were followed by short-term bounces, most were fleeting, with the average case drifting lower for three months. The biggest exception was 2002, when Technology saw a quick recovery following a selloff associated with the dot-com bust. While every cycle plays out differently, history suggests that a sustainable relative strength bottom may take time to develop. minervini.com

🚨 Another major scandal is coming out of NVIDIA. And this one has nothing to do with Jensen Huang's affairs. According to a Wall Street Journal report, Nvidia was offering billions in financial guarantees to AI companies that could not afford its chips, so they could keep buying them. Some of these deals were being pushed by Jensen's own son-in-law, Nico Caprez, who became a vice president in January. His team was telling small cloud companies and data center builders that Nvidia could arrange credit support for them within a couple of weeks. The goal was simple: turn them into long term buyers of Nvidia GPUs. And the size of Nvidia's commitments has exploded. Its own filing shows $530 BILLION in commitments and guarantees, up from $184 billion just one quarter earlier. Inside the company, CFO Colette Kress was raising concerns. She kept asking how these guarantees were priced and what Nvidia was really getting back. In an August meeting, Jensen cut her off and called her "a deer in the headlights." She was also the one who cut Nvidia's guarantee on OpenAI's Ohio data center from $250 billion to $105 billion. Now Jensen is gone, and the CFO who questioned these deals is running Nvidia. To understand why this is a big deal, you need to understand the AI funding loop. Here is how it works: 1. Nvidia puts money into an AI company, or guarantees its loans and leases. 2. That company uses the money and credit to build a data center. 3. The data center is filled with Nvidia GPUs. 4. Nvidia reports those GPU sales as revenue. 5. If the company cannot rent out all its computing power, Nvidia agrees to buy the unused part. SO NVIDIA IS THE INVESTOR, THE LENDER, THE SUPPLIER AND THE BACKUP CUSTOMER, ALL IN THE SAME DEAL. The money goes out of Nvidia and comes back to Nvidia as sales. CoreWeave is the clearest example. Nvidia owns a stake in it, sells it chips, and agreed to buy up to $6.3 billion of its unused computing capacity through 2032. OpenAI is the biggest. Nvidia is guaranteeing up to $105 billion for its Ohio data center, supplying all the chips inside it, and invested $1.5 billion in the company building it. Nvidia's own filing for the quarter ending July 26 shows where the money is tied up: • Supply commitments for memory and chip wafers: $279 BILLION, up from $119 billion. • Guarantee on the OpenAI Ohio data center: up to $105 BILLION. • Deals to buy unused cloud capacity from neoclouds: $36 BILLION. Nvidia's actual liabilities on its balance sheet: $91 BILLION. That means the commitments outside the balance sheet are almost 6 times bigger than the debts on it. Nvidia does not lose this money unless something breaks. A guarantee only costs Nvidia if a customer cannot pay. But this is where it gets uncomfortable. The WSJ says Jensen himself had started to panic. He warned executives that the biggest cloud companies were moving to their own chips to depend less on Nvidia. At the same time, the wafers and memory Nvidia had committed to buy were coming at him like an "avalanche." So the biggest customers were trying to leave, Nvidia was locked into buying huge amounts of supply, and smaller customers were being kept alive with Nvidia's credit. And things were already starting to crack: • Nvidia paused some of its financing deals in August. • Nearly half of the $80 billion in data center bonds issued this year were rated junk. • Neocloud stocks crashed this week, with Nebius down over 20% and CoreWeave down 17% at the lows. • OpenAI raised less than it wanted, at a lower valuation. And now Kress is the one deciding whether this continues. If she pulls back on the financing, the companies that depended on Nvidia's money will have to borrow elsewhere, in a debt market that is already nervous. If they cannot, they stop buying chips. And if they stop buying chips, Nvidia's revenue drops. That is the risk of a loop. It works perfectly when money keeps flowing, and it hurts on the way down.

Regarding $NBIS earnings results: To show you how fast they're growing... from Q2 to Q3: Revenue: $582.3M -> $980.8M (+68% QoQ) Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2M -> $465.8M (+97% QoQ) AI cloud adj. EBITDA margin: 49.7% -> 53.2% Net Income: −$190.4M -> −$37.5M ARR has reached $6.4B at the end of Sep. In terms of management commentary: - Since start of Q3, Nebius signed $12B+ of new contracts - Average GPU pricing rose 20%+ sequentially, payback shortened from 22M -> 19M - On Q3 deals, prepayments covered 100% of associated capex, up from 50–60% in Q2 (insane for financing) - Contract value per MW exceeded $25M+ from Q3 up from ~$20M Q2 - 5GW contracted power year end With $10B of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17B-$20B in 2027. Now, prepayments and borrowing against existing contracts covers ~75-85% of 2027 capex. On subsidiaries: 1. Avride - 250 autonomous vehicles fleet, over 100,000 passenger rides (with companies like $UBER). Fully driverless robotaxi targeted H1 2027. 2. Toloka - Revenue doubled sequentially 3. Enterprise cloud - Databricks and Datadog selected Neibus. Along with a new agreement with Snowflake. 4. Tavily - Over 3M developers now with $IBM post-training a core partner. 5. ClickHouse - Nothing about new secondary valuations, but we can see valuations growing 6. TokenFactory - Contract value grew 17x sequentially The primary negative I saw was that 2026 guidance is now on the lower end (near ~$3B), due to $MSFT capacity deliveries slipping to Q2 2027. Apparently there was an execution miss with a third party partner DataOne. Temporary generators were retired amid permitting issues before enough $BE fuel cell capacity came online. Capex also increased in 2026 from $20B-$25B to $27B, while revising revenue expectations downward. So near-term unfortunate headwinds kinda reminiscent of AOI earnings; however long term I think Nebius will take care of you. For 2027 outlook: - $12-13 billion revenue, capex of $40-45 billion, pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. Very operationally bullish, as seen with prepayments covering capex, GPU premiums increasing. Main downside is near-term execution risk from third parties, causing near-term delays and revenue recognition. Great quarter from Nebius overall.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Justice Department launches investigation into Nvidia $NVDA following CEO Jensen Huang's resignation.

JUST IN: Colette Kress to replace Jensen Huang as Nvidia's $NVDA interim CEO.

Since May, tariff refunds have amounted to 113% of new tariff collections. That's a net loss of $15 billion for the Treasury.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $845,000,000,000 added to the US stock market in the first two hours of trading today.

BREAKING: CoreWeave stock, $CRWV, surges over +16% after posting stronger than expected earnings due to AI. Nasdaq 100 futures extend gains to +1.5% on the day.

Jim Cramer says Nvidia $NVDA is the cheapest it’s been in 10 years, and that now is the time to buy.

NYSE just opened the door to extended-hours options trading. Starting today, options on 29 major stocks and ETFs, including $NVDA, $BAC, $SPY, and $IWM now trade in an early session (7:30–9:25 AM ET) and a late session (4:00–4:15 PM ET). On December 6, those same names move to 23-hour trading, five days a week. The expansion reflects growing demand for flexible risk management and broader global access to U.S. markets. 🦦

Insiders buying this week: PepsiCo director Robert Pohlad: $23.7m of $PEP at $128.28 Applied Digital president Jason Zhang: $5.7m of $APLD at $18.86 Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins: $1.0m at $18.04 Every Form 4, tracked daily on ORTEX app.ortex.com/s/NASDAQ/PEP/i…

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