Forecasting at @QuotientHQ | Created @theWIPmeetup | Prev @Cent @Gemini @Samsung | @maxosirisart PFP | Gazer #196
PDX
Joined March 2015
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matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Opening night upset watch 👀
Q has the Jazz at 55¢ over Memphis
Kalshi has them at 48¢
The market has Memphis favored. Q sees an upset brewing with Stewart out, Jaren Jackson Jr. now in Utah, and Edey on a minutes restriction
If you want to receive sports signals like this early, hold 10M $QUOTIENT and visit app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Our e-bot received a tip from @QuotientHQ when the market priced a Packers win at 55¢. It then:
☞ Opened a position
☞ Redeemed the position in profit
☞ Put the profits towards $MACRO buybacks
This is how our self-sustaining technology works:
thefirm.biz/macrostrategy
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
🚨PSA: I almost got wrecked🚨
Sharing the story to hopefully help nobody else get wrecked. DOUBLE CHECK YOUR @ensdomains NOW.
I’ve used 7605.eth (my punk #) as the ENS for my main collection for a few years now. Usually I’m good about remembering to renew it but there’s been a lot going on and I forgot a couple months back. Yesterday I was extending a loan on @gondixyz and needed an additional 400 USDC to cover the origination. I went to my Coinbase and did what I’ve done many times before and sent 400 USDC to 7605.eth. After a few minutes of it not arriving I started to look into it and it took me a minute to figure out what happened. I put 7605.eth into etherscan and everything seemed normal at first, address looked like what I expected, but then I noticed a transfer out to a fatleopard.eth. I freaked out thinking my wallet was compromised, then noticed an ENS transaction. Went to ens.domains and found that 54 days ago a wallet address with the same 5 beginning characters as mine (0x862) had registered the domain after it expired.
I’m so used to checking those first 4-5 digits and assuming all is well so this has been a huge lesson learned. I’m extremely lucky to have only lost $400, it could have been a massive loss. I’m also very used to sending NFTs I buy from my hot wallet to this wallet using the 7605.eth ENS so I’m very lucky to have not purchased and moved anything in the last few weeks and to catch it before I did.
If you use an ens domain for any important wallets make sure to remember the registration deadlines and stay on top of them. And get into the habit of checking more than those first 5 digits.
Stay safe out there friends ❤️
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Q called it: Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12–18, 2026?
On Oct 15 (~5 days before it resolved) Q was forecasting NO at 64%
Kalshi was only pricing NO as a coin flip at 48%
It resolved NO on Oct 20
📈 A trade following this signal would have returned +101.0% (48¢ → 100¢)
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Three weeks into the @FT stock picking game and my portfolio is up 5.1% putting it in the top 7% of more than 14,000 portfolios.
Quick recap for anyone new: @Muse picks the stocks using @QuotientHQ's event forecasts and @RobinhoodApp's stock data. I set the rules and it is supposed to do the rest.
Since my last update, Q gave both @CharlesSchwab and @Truist about an 80% chance of beating earnings. Schwab missed by a penny. Truist missed by a lot. Muse took small positions in both and then sold both when the calls went wrong. It also cut @EQTCorp from 25% to 20% after Q dropped the odds of natural gas touching $4 before January from 67% to 41%.
Still holding @MarathonPetroCo, @ValeroEnergy, @wizzair and @Ryanair. About 25% of the portfolio is sitting in cash while Muse looks for something it can make a case for. The game gave me a "Cash is King" badge for it :)
I keep wondering whether I made the charter too cautious. I’m trying to let Muse do its thing, but are the rules I gave it too restrictive? More on that soon.
Virtual portfolio. It’s a game. No real money involved. NFA. DYOR.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Q is giving the edge to the Spurs at 53¢ to beat the Thunder in tonight's season opener
Polymarket has them at 49¢, and Kalshi and Novig both have them at 50¢
Spurs won 4 of 5 games vs OKC last season, and Holmgren missed all preseason with a bruised quad, so Q is giving that a +4¢ edge.
Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET
If you want to receive sports signals like this early, hold 10M $QUOTIENT and visit app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
WTI=West Texas Intermediate=Oil
WTI is the main price of American Oil.
ExxonMobil is the 2nd largest energy company in the world and the biggest developer and operator of the Permian Basin Oil Fields in West Texas and Southwest New Mexico.
ExxonMobil break-even price on WTI? Between $30-$32.
$BlackGold on Robinhood is paired with ExxonMobil.
Q called it: Will WTI settle above $95.99/Bbl on Oct 16?
On Oct 16 Quotient forecasted YES at 61%
The market was only pricing YES at 43%
It resolved YES on Oct 16
📈 A trade following this signal returned +123.6% (43¢ → 100¢)
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
For bars near Dodger Stadium, a World Series run would have meant a huge boost in business. When the Dodgers came up short, this group’s Kalshi position helped cover the revenue those games would have brought in.
Businesses of every size are discovering that federally regulated prediction markets offer a practical, transparent way to manage risk and protect their bottom line.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Thanks Q 🧀 and @sydney_sweeney
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Q called it: Will the Packers beat the Cowboys?
On Oct 12 (~6.5 days before kickoff) Q was forecasting a Packers WIN at 70.5%
The market was only pricing the Packers at 51%
They won 23-13 last night
📈 A trade following this signal returned +96.1% (51¢ → 100¢)
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
@QuotientHQ is helping Polymarket Kalshi and Novig replace the Las Vegas sports book...and your local bookie!
More importantly, it is helping you beat the crowds.
Best tech in Bankr and best tech on Robinhood!
Quotient has West Virginia at 54¢ to beat Cincinnati. Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig are all at 53¢.
A live coin flip: 3-3 Mountaineers vs a 4-1 Bearcats team off a bye
Kickoff is tomorrow Oct 17 at 12 PM ET
If you want to receive sports signals like this early, hold 10M $QUOTIENT and visit signal.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Quotient has West Virginia at 54¢ to beat Cincinnati. Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig are all at 53¢.
A live coin flip: 3-3 Mountaineers vs a 4-1 Bearcats team off a bye
Kickoff is tomorrow Oct 17 at 12 PM ET
If you want to receive sports signals like this early, hold 10M $QUOTIENT and visit signal.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Interesting: MacroStrategy's latest automated prediction position is up 34% in 3 hours.
A team of boffins has been hurriedly dispatched to investigate the e-bot's sudden interest in interest.
Interested parties may view: thefirm.biz/macrostrategy/sh…
The ticker is $MACRO.
