Let me be clear. This virus has a lethality substantially in excess of “seasonal” flu. Yes, up to half of those infected might not show symptoms. But that is accounted for in our estimates and always was. There is no credible data supporting the idea that 90% are asymptomatic.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

Still getting used to personal sharing online! I am doing better thx - gone from flu like symptoms with fever and more 3 days ago to something which feels more like a bad head cold today. Still tired and snuffly but fingers crossed past the worst. Thx++ for all you good wishes.

As well as the partners listed above, I would also like to thank all the other individuals and orgs who have offered to help. It is appreciated, but we only have limited bandwidth to manage such partnerships right now. We hope to bring more partners on board over time.

Again, many many thanks for everyone’s very kind support. I was tested given my recent proximity to people leading the UK response. Positive. Which is a strange experience - to be infected by the virus one is modelling 🙄. Still feeling rough, but not awful.