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Joined July 2011
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth. — Marcus Aurelius
CoreWeave Shares Tumble As Its Debt Flounders simplevisor.substack.com/p/c…
Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
With another month of rising inflation, what's the Fed's likely next move?
Join @michaellebowitz and me as we examine the latest inflation trends on #TheRealInvestmentShow, streaming live starting at 6am CDT on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X.
(Links are in the comments)
CPI Hotter Than Expected: Is A Hike Back On The Table? simplevisor.substack.com/p/c…
Mortgage-backed securities get a bad rap because of negative convexity. But when most of the market is far out of the money, the math changes. Check out our latest: realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
Mortgage-backed securities get a bad rap because of negative convexity. But when most of the market is far out of the money, the math changes. Check out our latest: realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
What The NFL Can Teach Us About Risk Management simplevisor.substack.com/p/w…
Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
Recent homebuyers’ are getting pretty stretched—just look at giant homebuilders’ latest DTIs
--> This @ResiClub_HQ chart shows the share of giant homebuilders' debt-to-income ratios that are above 43%
Why is the consumer so resilient? It's not because the typical household is healthier. We built a Consumer Health Index to find out what's really driving spending, and what could change. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
Bond Auctions: You Never Hear About The Good Ones simplevisor.substack.com/p/b…
Waller: “I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”
Why wait if inflation has been above target for years and the Fed's concern is that high inflation seeps into personal and corporate spending behaviors? This trepidation, along with Logan's odd comments (our take linked below), leads me to believe they are setting up for a policy mistake.
FWIW, I don't think they should be raising rates.
realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
Michael Lebowitz, CFA retweeted
Is the Fed putting too much emphasis on an uncertain estimate when setting interest rates?
@michaellebowitz and I re-examine the Treasury Term Premium on #TheRealInvestmentShow, starting at 6am CDT on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X.
(Links are in the comments)
Consumers keep worrying but keep spending. Our new Consumer Health Index shows spending running ahead of fundamentals, just like in 2023-2024. The difference today is that the savings buffer is nearly gone. realinvestmentadvice.com/res…
