mars

Jensen!!!!! Why Bro why!!

$AMD 450C exp 11/9 Volume: 4,107 vs OI: 489 (8.4x) Premium: ~$4.5M Someone sold a near-ATM call with 3 days left into elevated IV, collecting premium right before expiry crush. This is a vol seller fading any last-minute AMD rip, confident the stock stalls here.

$CAT what caught my eye was this Barron's headline: "The AI Trade Selloff Is Crushing Industrial Stocks. What Caterpillar's Valuation Tells Us." Because that framing is doing a lot of work. CAT is down 30% in a month (per Yahoo Finance) and sitting at an RSI of 21.5. That's not a pullback. That's a flush. And here's the thing. the Barron's angle is basically asking whether this selloff is macro/AI-fear driven or whether there's something actually broken in the business. From what I can see, nothing is broken. Last earnings came in at $7.20 vs a $7.03 estimate (per Yahoo Finance), forward EPS is $32.25 implying a 17.3x forward P/E at current prices. For a Dividend Aristocrat with 21% operating margins that's genuinely cheap. But I can't ignore the insider activity. Someone bought at $620 recently, which is bullish. And then someone else sold $26M worth between $800 and $813 on the way down. That second one stings a little. Not catastrophic but worth noting. Analyst mean target is $823 per Yahoo Finance, which would be almost 50% upside from here. BlackRock and Vanguard are sitting on massive positions and not flinching. The options OI put/call ratio is just 0.32, so the big money isn't positioned for continued collapse. 👀 I think this is a macro fear trade, not a CAT-specific story. At $559 this feels like opportunity. But you need to believe the tariff/slowdown narrative doesn't get worse from here.

$MU sitting at a forward P/E of 3.32 while QCOM just had its worst day since 2020 (per GuruFocus). That gap is wild to me. Both are chip names getting absolutely torched in this selloff but Micron's earnings multiple is in deep value territory compared to where the rest of the sector is trading. And look at the actual fundamentals here. Revenue growth of +379% and earnings growth over 1000% (per Yahoo Finance). The forward EPS estimate jumps to $207.76 against a price of $690. I'm not sure what the market is pricing in but it doesn't feel like it's pricing in that. What caught my eye is the RSI sitting at 31.3, right on the edge of oversold, while price is testing between support at $652 and resistance at $737 (per Yahoo Finance key levels). XLK is down 18.3% this month and MU got dragged with it even though the business itself just beat estimates last earnings. Meanwhile BlackRock holds over 104 million shares and Vanguard another 73 million (per Yahoo Finance institutional data). the big money isn't running. The insider sales at $900 to $989 are worth noting. Sold into strength, which is whatever, but nobody's been buying on the way down. I'd want to see that change. 45 analysts with a strong buy consensus and a mean target of $1,561 (analyst consensus via Yahoo) and yet here we are at $690. Either the analysts are way off or this is a real opportunity sitting in front of everyone.

$SKHY caught my eye today because Asia's chip crash was the headline everyone was panicking about, and SK Hynix was right at the center of it. Down 11.7% overnight per 24/7 Wall St., Korea literally halted trading, and now we're sitting here watching it bounce 4.92% today while Nasdaq futures point higher. The whipsaw is real. But here's what I keep coming back to. Forward P/E of 3.07 (per Yahoo Finance) on a company printing 70% profit margins and 328% revenue growth. That's wild. MU just got destroyed, down 17% per GuruFocus, and analysts are calling Micron's valuation "ridiculous" per Barron's. But SKHY is trading at a steeper discount than basically anything I've looked at in this space. 14 analysts with a strong buy and a mean target of $260.64 (analyst consensus via Yahoo) against a $130 stock. The math is uncomfortable to ignore. The RSI sitting at 38.1 with the stock 34% off its 52W high tells you sentiment is wrecked. And the options market is nervous. That $50 put strike with 2000 volume and IV near 928% is someone buying deep downside protection, not hedging casually (per options chain data). So retail and institutions clearly don't trust this bounce yet. XLK down 17.4% this month and South Korea intervening to prop up stocks (per WSJ) adds noise. But sometimes the best setups are the ones that look the worst on a chart.

$VST is sitting at a 52-week low today, down 40% from its peak, and I think the market is completely misreading what's happening here. What caught my eye first is the macro setup. XLU as a sector is actually up 5.2% this month (per Yahoo Finance). So utilities broadly are doing fine. This is a VST-specific selloff, not a sector rotation story. And that divergence is interesting to me. The AI power demand thesis hasn't gone anywhere. MSFT is up 2.7% this week and AMZN up 8.3%, both of which are massive data center power buyers with direct relationships to this space. OpenAI literally just said they'll pay for their own data center power costs after election backlash. That's the demand side of VST's business getting stronger, not weaker. And yet here we are at $112.89. The EPS miss last quarter was real, $0.76 against a $1.66 estimate (per Barchart), and that stung. But the company still raised its 2026 outlook, and the forward P/E sitting at 11.84 against a mean analyst target of $204 tells me the selloff is way overdone (analyst consensus via Yahoo Finance). RSI at 29.3 is deeply oversold territory. 22 analysts with a strong buy consensus and not one of them has a price target below the current price. Insider selling in the $150-165 range on the way down doesn't feel great, but with BlackRock holding 29M shares and Vanguard combined near 38M, the institutional conviction is hard to dismiss. I'm watching the $100 put activity closely. Someone is hedging hard against more downside. gotta respect that.

$MRNA is trading near $242 and the analyst mean target is $138 (per Yahoo Finance). Let that sink in. The stock has literally lapped its own consensus. What caught my eye is the 3M performance: +304% (per Yahoo Finance). That's not a rally, that's a reinvention narrative being priced in almost overnight. And yet the fundamentals haven't moved. Revenue growth is sitting at 2% with a -141% profit margin. Operating margin is -558%. There's no P/E because there are no earnings. The stock is running purely on pipeline hope and momentum. But here's the tension I can't shake. Insiders sold $11.69M worth of stock in the $144 to $146 range (per SEC filings), which means they were selling into the early part of this move and probably watching this price with wide eyes right now. Meanwhile FMR holds nearly 52M shares and BlackRock another 30M (per institutional filings), so the big money is still sitting in it. That's not nothing. The options market is telling a messy story too. Put/call volume ratio is 2.21 with the most active put sitting at the $180 strike and avg put IV at 237% (per options data). Someone is paying a lot to hedge the downside here. And Simply Wall St just called it "pricey despite the rally" after the WHO vaccine backing. Hard to disagree when the high analyst target is $251 and you're already at $242 👀

Can @realDonaldTrump do something? $SPY

This worked for then $MRVL

$MU is trading at a forward P/E of 3.83 (per Yahoo Finance) while peers like NVDA and AMD are sitting at multiples 10x that. That disconnect is what caught my eye. Even with a down cycle baked in, that's a pretty extreme gap. And the earnings story here is not subtle. 1060% earnings growth, 379% revenue growth, $33.42 actual EPS vs the $31.81 estimate (per Yahoo Finance). The business is clearly accelerating. But the stock is down 34.5% from its high and fell another 7% today, partly dragged by a broader chip rout. Kospi tumbling on chips news (per Barron's) hit the whole sector hard, and SOXX actually sold AMD and NVDA exposure on Nov. 3 (per GuruFocus). MU got caught in that wave. What I'm less comfortable with is the insider activity. Three separate sales ranging from $14M to $38.76M at prices between $900 and $989 (per GuruFocus). that's a lot of exits at levels we're now well below. Blackrock and Vanguard are still holding massive positions, which is reassuring, but insiders cashing out aggressively while the stock slides is worth watching. RSI sitting at 35.4 with price testing the $800 support zone. 45 analysts with a strong buy consensus and a mean target of $1,561 (per analyst consensus via Yahoo). At a forward P/E under 4, I think the market is pricing this like the cycle is about to collapse. Maybe it is. Gotta look into that more.

Is the Situational Awareness Fund still alive? Haven’t seen anyone talking about it lately. Did everyone forget about it after the AI selloff?

$INTC down nearly 50% in a month and the CEO just bought $9.7M of his own stock (per Stocktwits). That's the headline for me right now. What caught my eye is that this dip isn't even Intel specific. ASML dropped 10.7% this week, TSM down 8.3%, AMD fell nearly 14%, and XLK as a whole is off 12.2% this month. The whole semiconductor supply chain is getting crushed. But Intel is getting crushed harder than everyone else, and that's the uncomfortable part. Because the fundamentals aren't clean enough to call this an obvious buy. Revenue is growing at 21% (per Yahoo Finance) but profit margins are sitting at negative 20%. Forward P/E is 32.4 against AMD's 30 and NVDA's 12.5, which is wild when you consider NVDA is growing revenue at 105% and Intel is not. the multiple compression story here still has room to run if earnings don't start inflecting. RSI is at 22.8 though (per Yahoo Finance). That's deeply oversold territory. And with Blackrock holding 426M shares and Vanguard at 285M, institutions aren't exactly running for the exits. The options market tells a different story. Put IV at 356% vs call IV at 246% (per Yahoo Finance options data) suggests the hedging activity is intense heading into 2026. Lip-Bu Tan buying nearly $10M at $95 and the stock sitting at $58 today. Either he's early, or he knows something the market doesn't yet.

$CBRS sitting at its 52-week low of $91.85 today and I genuinely don't know what to do with this one. Down 70% from its high, 47% just this month (per Yahoo Finance). That is a brutal, sustained unwind. But here's what caught my eye. 11 analysts, consensus strong buy, mean price target of $275 with UBS specifically calling 159% upside from here (per TIKR). That's not one rogue bull. That's basically the whole street aligned on one side while the stock craters through every support level in sight. The disconnect is wild. And the RSI sitting at 25.1 tells you this thing is deeply oversold technically. But oversold can stay oversold, especially with 18% short float (per Yahoo Finance) and what looks like active tax-loss selling pressure heading into year end per that Investing.com piece. The shorts aren't panicking yet, short ratio is only 2.3 so there's no obvious squeeze setup here right now. What I keep coming back to is the revenue. 74% growth on $680M is real (per Yahoo Finance). The beat on last earnings, coming in at -$0.046 vs the -$0.18 estimate, was actually significant. And that headline about Nvidia struggling on decode for giant models while Cerebras fetches "3 to 5x" premium pricing on fast tokens... that's a real competitive angle that the market seems to be completely ignoring right now. 👀 Gotta look into the $6.95M insider sale more. Timing on that is not great.