Mark Minervini

EXCLUSIVE EXPOSÉ - In-depth interview with MARK MINERVINI - 33,554% Return • 2-Time U.S. Investing Champion. youtu.be/RoKPBa8Ppyk?si=p9co… via @YouTube

Bottom Fishers Beware! Technology is extremely oversold, and that is a tempting condition for bottom fishing crowd. The Technology sector trailed the S&P 500 by 11.8% over the 21 trading days ending November 5, marking its worst relative drawdown since 2001. However, Technology’s oversold condition is no guarantee that a sustainable bottom is near. If history is a guide, volatility is more likely than a sustained alpha producing period. The chart below plots every occurrence that Technology underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 10% over 21 days since 1990. While several cases were followed by short-term bounces, most were fleeting, with the average case drifting lower for three months. The biggest exception was 2002, when Technology saw a quick recovery following a selloff associated with the dot-com bust. While every cycle plays out differently, history suggests that a sustainable relative strength bottom may take time to develop. minervini.com

I just got off the phone with my good friend Dee Snider. He has a new podcast called The Ball. If you're a rock & roller, check it out. youtu.be/0FsMrLxlQiM?is=VXe-…

For those who did not see this interview. These guys did a really great job, asking good questions and delivering a really useful format for those who want to learn more about me and my background, and get some helpful trading insights.

I don't know about you, but I had enough fake AI videos. If you find yourself endlessly scrolling through these ridiculous time wasters, you seriously need to get a life. I admit, the rabbit hole is easy to go down. But it's mindless dribble bombarding our phones and consuming valuable space, physically and mentally. At one time, we went out to a comedy club, or watched a good movie to get entertained. Now it's 27/7 stupidness. You can't even have a conversation with somebody; they're too busy having their face plowed into their smartphone. What a name... smart phone. How ironic.

The fourth quarter, particularly November and December, is historically one of the strongest periods of the year for stocks. But 2018 is a good reminder that seasonality doesn't always win out, especially when the Fed is tightening and the market is already showing signs of deterioration. In 2018, the Fed was already raising interest rates when the market started to come under pressure. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average and sold off hard in October. It then snapped back roughly 8%, which at the time looked like the correction might be running its course, particularly with the market heading into the seasonally strong November-December period. But the rally failed. The S&P rolled over and fell another roughly 16% before finally bottoming on Christmas Eve. From the September high to the December low, the decline was nearly 20%. The point is not that 2018 is going to repeat itself. It's that you can't assume the market is going higher simply because you're entering a historically strong seasonal period. When the Fed is tightening, rates are rising and market conditions are deteriorating, those forces can overwhelm seasonality. We always respect seasonal tendencies, but we don't trade the calendar. We trade the market in front of us. Price and volume, breadth, leadership, interest rates and, most importantly, the action of individual stocks will tell us whether the market is actually improving. 2018 is a good example of why you have to keep an open mind. Even during one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year, the market can still go down.

The boldest, “bravest,” and most critical comments always seem to come from anonymous accounts hiding behind pen names with no personal photo. If you’re so proud of your commentary and so confident in your opinions, put your real name and picture behind them. Own your words. Join those of us who have the courage to stand publicly behind what we say. If you’re proud of your opinions, be proud enough to put your name on them. Go beyond internet courage.

My memo to our clients this morning: Yesterday, we doubled our already profitable S&P 500 short exposure because we believe the potential for further downside remains worth the miniscule risk we are taking. Our original position has been completely de-risked, and the additional shares were added using what we call an "add and reduce" technique", allowing us to increase exposure without materially increasing overall risk. This puts us in our favorite position: large profit potential with very small risk. The Nasdaq triggered a follow-through day. We take that seriously, but now we need to see whether the rally can gain traction or if distribution rears its head in the coming days. With a good-sized hedge bet in place, we are open to adding some longs as they meet our criteria. Currently, the list is small, but there are a few names we are considering. Refer to our Focus List for current names. Many of yesterday's biggest winners were in the AI/technology stocks that had been beaten down and severely oversold. CoreWeave is an especially good illustration. It exploded 24.7% yesterday, but closed at $60.77 versus a 52-week high of $138.2 - still down about 56% below its high. IREN gained 5.6% but closed at $20.84 against a $70.71 high, still roughly 71% below its high. Those are enormous rallies but occurring inside badly damaged charts. Most of yesterday's tech stock rallies occurred within strong downtrends. Macro and policy risks still argue for staying selective rather than chasing a market with very few sound stock setups. Sticky inflation, the prospect of additional Fed rate hikes, rising long-term interest rates, and increasing talk of regulation surrounding AI and data centers are all reasons to remain cautious about a nascent rally that, so far, has largely been a rebound from an oversold condition. Interest rates remain particularly important. After pulling back from an overbought condition, the 10-year yield has started turning higher again, while the 1-year yield jumped sharply. That is not exactly the backdrop you want to see if you’re looking for expanding equity valuations and a sustained risk-on move. Investors Intelligence bulls fell sharply to 37.0% from 42.6% last week, the lowest bullish reading since early April, when bulls reached 33.3%. That's a significant reversal from just six weeks ago, when bulls stood at 57.7% as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were hitting highs. That peak was one of three readings above the 55% danger level that historically signals elevated risk. At the same time, bears jumped to 24.1% from 18.5%, the highest bearish reading since April. The shift is encouraging from a contrary-sentiment standpoint, particularly after several weeks when bearish readings remained unusually low. Sentiment is definitely moving in the right direction, but we don't believe the ratio of bulls to bears has reached the extreme normally associated with a major contrary buy signal. For now, we view the change primarily as a directional indication. Optimism is being wrung out and pessimism is building as stocks retreat from their highs. That's constructive, but it isn't necessarily capitulation. We would like to see sentiment deteriorate further before treating it as a powerful contrary signal. A follow-through day is important piece of evidence, but it is not a license to blindly rush back into the market. The real confirmation will come from the market of stocks - better price action, expanding leadership and a proliferation of quality setups emerging from sound bases. For now, we are taking a measured approach. We will look to add some long exposure incrementally as individual stocks prove themselves. We strongly advise you only get aggressive on the heels of portfolio traction. The weight of evidence suggests that we are not yet completely out of the woods. Let the market earn your exposure. For now, maintain short (hedge) exposure and adhere to stops. minervini.com

On Veterans Day, I want to offer my heartfelt thanks to every man and woman who has served in our military. Because of your courage and sacrifice, I’ve had the freedom to pursue my dreams, build a life, and succeed in a country where opportunity is possible. I never take that for granted. A nation is only as strong as its ability to protect itself - and that strength comes from the brave people willing to serve. To all our veterans: thank you for protecting our freedom and giving us the opportunity to live ours. My gratitude is sincere and from the heart.

With all due respect, during my entire 43 year trading career. I have never formed and certainly never held an opinion like this. I would have to say that it's one of the keys to my success.

Some trivia or something most of you would never know abour me. In the 1980's, I manufactured and distributed one of the earlier widely commercialized blackjack strategy cards. It was on credit card plastic and meant to be handheld to help players with basic strategy. This was one of the earlier versions meant for single deck play. It was available in vending machines and gift shops in Atlantic City at the airport and on the boardwalk. At the time, I also wrote articles for a magazine called gambling times. In exchange, they traded me advertising space for the Blackjack Card. I was just 22 years old. My wife just found it while cleaning out a closet. 😎

When I make a trade, my thinking is never about being right or even wrong. It's about risk vs. reward. I call it Bell Curve Thinking. I ask myself, if I make this trade 1000 times, does it come out a winner. Is it likely that the trade's upside is at least 2-3X the my stop? If I get those right, the rest takes care of itself. My most recent $SPY short is a perfect example. The stock fell 5X my stop. I had the opportunity to capture 5Rs. But that's precisely what afforded me to hold for a bigger move while improving my stop to breakeven. I made that decision based on the odds at the time. If I turn out to be wrong... nothing lost. Next.

In case you're wondering what a Negatoilet is... urbandictionary.com/define.p…

Quote of the day: Friends shouldn't let friends trade drunk... or stupid.

If you're afraid of failing, being embarrassed, or being humiliated, you need to turn that ego-driven headwind into powerful tailwind. Instead of fearing failure, fear never trying. Fear living your entire life without ever discovering what you were truly capable of becoming. Fear leaving your potential unrealized. The fear of what others might think will keep you imprisoned in mediocrity if you allow it. Stop seeking approval. Stop worrying about criticism. Stop allowing your ego to stand between you and your dreams. Advance boldly in the direction of your dreams, independent of the good opinion of others. Especially those closest to you. The people who love you want to protect you. They'll tell you to play it safe. Get a secure job. Stay in school. Become a doctor or a lawyer. They'll tell you that trading is gambling, that your dreams are unrealistic, that you're taking too much risk. They don't want to see you fail. And their intentions may be good. But in their desire to protect you from failure, they often overlook the most important thing of all: What do YOU want? What is YOUR dream? They're looking at your life through the lens of their own fears, limitations, and expectations. But they're not the ones who have to live your life. You are. And there's something far worse than disappointing the people around you. It's reaching the end of your life and realizing you disappointed yourself. Because the greatest failure isn't trying and falling short, it's never having the courage to find out just how far you could have gone.