Tonbo Imaging: Bumper Listing, But Selling Pressure? Post-IPO promoter holding: ~14% (down from 17.43%). FY24–FY26 revenue CAGR: **~-8%** — sales fell from ₹428cr to ₹363cr. Yali Deeptech Fund reportedly sold 24L shares at avg. ₹1,069 vs ₹250 acquisition cost. Promoters have already diluted. AIFs and early investors are cashing out. **Who absorbs the next wave of selling?** *Personal observation, not investment advice. Figures based on IPO disclosures and reported trades; DYDD.*

🔍 Tonbo Imaging is launching an ₹852.18 Cr IPO (100% OFS). While its ITAR-free electro-optics tech is highly advanced, Here is a breakdown of the key factors. 👇Tonbo Imaging India IPO Investment Note 📊 The Core Metrics: • Peer Comparison: Revenue fell 22.7% & PAT dropped 30.1% in FY26. Pure-play defense peers (Data Patterns, Paras) show much stronger growth. • Promoter Stake: Founders hold just 17.43% pre-IPO, dropping to ~14.6% post-IPO. Extremely low "skin in the game". • Asset Efficiency: Asset-light model means outsourcing assembly to contract manufacturers. Net Fixed Asset Turnover is high at 14.6x, but working capital stretched to a massive 517 days. 3/3 ⚠️ Valuation & Order Book: • Order Book: Stood at ₹314.24 Cr—only 0.87x of FY26 revenue, providing weak visibility. • Valuation: Priced at ₹665–₹700, translating to a steep 78.83x P/E on FY26 earnings. • Recent Trend: Slipped into a net loss of -₹17.74 Cr in Q1 FY27. (Disclaimer: This is a personal investment note for educational/informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.)

ZETWERK IPO: NO DIRECT PEER — INDUSTRIAL DISRUPTOR OR VALUATION TRAP? 🏭📊 Zetwerk is not merely a manufacturing company. It is building a technology-led B2B manufacturing ecosystem with a differentiated business model. 🔹 PROMOTERS: First-generation entrepreneurs in their mid-30s, potentially combining experience, energy and a long execution runway. 🔹 UNIQUE BUSINESS MODEL: B2B platform + 800+ engineers + asset-light MSME manufacturing network + selective in-house factory infrastructure. 🔹 HOW IT WORKS: A data-centre company needs transformers. Zetwerk's engineers understand specifications, design the solution, allocate production to suitable manufacturing partners and manage execution. Complex processes can be handled in its own facilities. 📈 SCALE: FY26 revenue reportedly reached ₹15,913 crore, up 40.4%. Adjusted EBITDA: ₹421 crore. Reported net loss: ₹1,606 crore. 💥 WHY WAS THE FY26 LOSS SO LARGE? The headline loss needs to be examined beyond operating performance: Non-cash ESOP/share-based compensation: Approximately ₹800 crore of founder and employee share-based charges reportedly weighed on reported earnings. These are non-cash accounting expenses in the period, although equity compensation has an economic cost through dilution. Civil infrastructure exit: A reported ₹450 crore write-down associated with exiting legacy civil infrastructure operations added to the loss. Low-margin metal trading: Ring-fencing the low-margin commodity-sourcing business, reportedly operating at around 1.24% EBITDA margin, could improve transparency and focus on higher-value manufacturing. It does not automatically eliminate the underlying economic risks. These items may explain a substantial part of the loss, but the entire ₹1,606 crore loss should not be dismissed as unreal. Recurring expenses, finance costs and cash-flow performance still matter. 💰 THE FY27 TURNAROUND THESIS Projected FY27 PAT: ₹180–250 crore — an estimate, not a certainty. 1️⃣ Debt reduction: Approximately ₹2,160 crore of IPO proceeds is earmarked for debt repayment, potentially reducing interest costs. 2️⃣ Operating leverage: Projected adjusted EBITDA of ₹580–620 crore, assuming revenue growth and execution improvements. 3️⃣ Lower exceptional charges: FY26's civil infrastructure write-down may not recur at the same level, although future ESOP expenses and other charges remain possible. Illustrative bridge: ₹580–620 crore adjusted EBITDA, less ₹110–130 crore finance costs, ₹180–200 crore depreciation and other charges, and ₹30–50 crore estimated tax, supports a potential positive PAT—subject to actual accounting and tax treatment. 🔍 POTENTIAL PEER FRAMEWORK — NOT DIRECT COMPARABLES Dixon Technologies: A reference point for the EMS/manufacturing side of the business. Delhivery: A reference point for the technology-led platform-plus-infrastructure side. Zetwerk sits somewhere between these two business architectures. It combines engineering-led custom manufacturing, a distributed MSME partner ecosystem and selective owned production infrastructure. There is no obvious like-for-like listed global peer. 🎯 WHO SHOULD CONSIDER THIS IPO? In my view, this may not be suitable for retail investors with limited funds or low risk tolerance. It may interest HNIs and financially sophisticated investors who understand the business, can tolerate substantial volatility and are willing to underwrite a differentiated but still unproven profitability trajectory. A three-year investment thesis would rest on successful debt reduction, sustained growth, improving margins and conversion of EBITDA into PAT and operating cash flow. This is a high-risk thesis—not a guaranteed three-year wealth creator. MY TAKE: A potentially unique industrial platform with considerable upside if execution succeeds, but valuation, working capital and profitability remain the critical tests. DISCLAIMER — FOR SEBI COMPLIANCE: This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a research report, a buy/sell recommendation or a solicitation to invest. The views expressed are analytical opinions, not a recommendation to any specific investor category. All financial figures and projections require independent verification against the RHP, audited financial statements and stock-exchange disclosures. Forward-looking estimates are uncertain and actual outcomes may differ materially. No assurance of returns or profitability is given. Investors should assess their own financial circumstances, risk tolerance and investment horizon and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser where appropriate. Securities investments are subject to market risks, including possible loss of capital.

Bonfiglioli Transmissions IPO Deep-Dive: Financial Marvel or Promoter Cash-Out? 🚨 🐂 The Bull Case: An Asset-Light Engineering Powerhouse Unmatched Machine Efficiency: Boasts a spectacular Fixed Asset Turnover of 7.2x—vastly outperforming the industrial engineering average of ~4.0x due to a highly optimized, localized assembly model. Premium Returns: The business commands a stellar 34% ROCE and strong operating margins that expanded to 19.8% in H1CY26. Production Headroom: Operates at ~75% capacity utilization, giving it plenty of room to scale without requiring immediate, heavy capital expenditure. 🐻 The Bear Case: The Working Capital & Governance Friction . The real bottleneck isn't factory capacity—it is a sluggish Working Capital Cycle locked up in high inventory days (~90 days) and long debtor cycles (~80 days) dictated by powerful OEM clients.The Turnover Illusion: While fixed asset turnover is great, the Total Asset Turnover drops to 1.51x Zero Growth Capital: The issue is a 100% Offer for Sale (OFS). The entire ₹2,533 Cr goes straight to the Italian promoters. The company receives ₹0 to support its ballooning working capital needs as it expands. 🔍 The Hidden Risk Everyone is Ignoring: The Royalty Drain High Promoter Outflow: Bonfiglioli India pays a steep 4.5% annual royalty to its Italian parent—up from 4.2% in CY22. Peer Comparison: Standard MNC peers listed in India (like Bosch, ABB, and Schaeffler) typically cap parent royalties between 2% to 3%. The Reality: This 4.5% rate siphons roughly ₹90 Cr annually out of the Indian listed entity. Because the parent is using this IPO to extract capital rather than invest it, any future upward revisions to this royalty agreement present a silent dilution risk for public shareholders. At a forward P/E of 37.07x, it is priced reasonably against the industry average (51.61x), but investors must weigh excellent operating efficiency against structural cash extraction. ⚠️ SEBI Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor. This analysis is purely for educational and informational purposes based on the Red Herring Prospectus (RHP) and publicly available broker notes. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or subscribe to the IPO. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Zetwerk IPO: A Business That Defies Easy Valuation. Spent considerable time today understanding Zetwerk’s business model and valuation. It’s a unique business, and finding the right peer for comparison is surprisingly difficult. A few interesting insights emerged when I looked beyond the headline numbers. Will share my analysis tomorrow—with logic, figures and some unconventional valuation perspectives. Sometimes, the most interesting IPOs are the hardest to value.