HODL
Joined January 2018
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Luke ₿ retweeted
- new ledger supply chain compromise (singapore this time)
- all tech stocks doing a genuine great depression-level -30% candle at close (basically whatever people expected for black monday, squared)
- polymarket: "yeah a million people just got hacked"
- binance: "oh yeah we're getting hacked too"
all against a backdrop of many, many weeks of market weakness + back-to-back existential fud in the form of quantum + "AI is going to break cryptography"
if i had no awareness of crypto charts since summer, and you told me "BTC put in a new low at 45k", i'd be like "oh yeah, that makes sense"
the fact that we just now are wicking to below 79k is fucking astonishing
i maintain that btc is a beach ball under water. it doesn't need unprecedent-great stuff to happen, it just needs to have stuff from the above list (typically once-a-year events) to stop happening every 24 hours.
Luke ₿ retweeted
Midterm elections are a great buying opportunity for the bulls. 6 months after midterms, the S&P 500 $SPX was never negative and gained a median of 16.9%.
None of the 19 cases saw a 20%+ bear market in the next six months. The median peak to trough decline was 6.1%.
ALT Chart showing S&P 500 performance over the six months following midterm elections since 1950. The index gained in all 19 instances, with a median return of 16.9%. None experienced a bear market exceeding 20%, while the median peak-to-trough drawdown was 6.1%.
Luke ₿ retweeted
Octoberphobia giving way to a year-end rally? The Halloween Trade and post-midterm election rally have historically aligned with a bullish stretch for stocks. Here's how 2026 is shaping up. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/8…
Chamath/jason both just coming out saying BTC is going to zero & Elon saying all the Neo clouds are going to zero is a news failure if I’ve ever seen one.
Luke ₿ retweeted
It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative.
If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.
Luke ₿ retweeted
We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left
Purchased some IREN today. Max fear. News failure on Elon saying most neo clouds will go bankrupt. Bottom.
Luke ₿ retweeted
AI Bubble Burst? Bitcoin to Zero? Hedge Funds Wrecked? Sounds Like a Bottom is Near
In this week's video: youtu.be/CjquP0fupG4
On many measures this is one of the largest hedge fund equity deleveraging events in the last 30 years without economic deleveraging.
For equities parallels to the 2007 Quant Quake are striking. AI positions built over 18 months are being unwound in 75 days.
This is concentration rather than factors.
But here's what matters:
Corporate profits are still growing ~20% YoY.
AI compute demand continues to exceed supply.
The S&P 500 has barely moved despite the liquidation.
Contagion has spread into credit, multistrats, and European bonds.
This is hedge fund deleveraging, NOT economic deleveraging.
And I believe based on positioning we're in the final innings.
I also cover why AI is accelerating breakthroughs in healthcare, why cybersecurity could drive tokenization, and why the convergence of AI and crypto is just beginning.
The world is changing faster than traditional leverage and risk management can handle.
The real bubble may have been in the assumption that investors still had time.
Inflation is a feature not a bug.
normal People don’t care about economists talking about YOY inflation rates. This is what they actually feel.
Send this to your friends if they think they can vote there way out of things getting more expensive.
News flash, you can’t.
@DariusDale42
