Head of Creative https://xitter.cf/t.co/KZ5f14wxHJ https://xitter.cf/t.co/Crf70APUDG claimed by @jennyerikson // Father to 9 // LDS.
San Diego, CA
Joined August 2007
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Updated predictions, one day out:
🔵 El-Sayed wins Michigan
🔴 Collins holds Maine
🔵 Brown wins Ohio
🔵 Talarico wins Texas
🔵 Peltola wins Alaska
🔵 Hamilton upsets in Kansas
🔴 Hinson wins Iowa
🔴 Ricketts wins Nebraska
🔴 Graham wins SC
One change since Saturday: Ohio. The final polls and the early vote both lean Brown now.
That's a 52-48 Democratic Senate.
Your receipts since January 2025:
Eggs: -53%
Gas: +39%
Coffee: +32%
Beef: +22%
Overall prices: +6.2%. Average pay: +6.0%.
Gas was $2.96 a gallon in January. It's $4.45 now.
Up 37% from a year ago. The spring spike never really went away.
October inflation: prices up 0.4%.
Since February, prices have climbed at a 4.6% yearly pace. More than twice the Fed's target.
Gas did a lot of it. But core prices rose 0.3% for the third month in a row too.
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Five things to teach your kids before they turn 18 and can vote:
1. Read the bill, not the headline.
2. Ask "compared to what?"
3. A chart can lie. So can the person explaining it.
4. Experts can be wrong. Ask who checked their work.
5. You can disagree with someone and still have them over for dinner.
Prices have beaten paychecks six months in a row. First time since spring 2023.
Since Trump took office: prices up 6.2%, average pay up 6.0%.
He owns this economy now.
I hate to show how young @robbysoave is (and reveal how old I am) but let me take you back to 1982:
Even in a wipeout, voters still trusted Republicans more on immigration. That's the one NOT to cave on.
The whole midterm in one table.
Net approval at the midterm, per the exit poll:
Bush '06: -14
Obama '10: -11
Obama '14: -11
Trump '18: -9
Biden '22: -11
Trump '26: -26
Nearly double the next worst. That's not one issue. That's everything.
Last night: "My guess is they walk this back tomorrow."
Today: "We're not going to have amnesty."
Miller found the room. 😂
.@POTUS: "We're not going to have amnesty or anything. People are going to do it the right way. They have to do it; it's unfair to other people."
Justin Hart retweeted
A Democrat running for state senate in NH did not meet residency requirements and publicly withdrew 8 weeks before the election.
48% of people still voted for him, even when he literally could not win.
We have to model most voters as knowing quite close to nothing at all.
People keep trying to tell me that BEING A FREE STATER was part of the reason a couple dozen free staters lost their elections. Yury did even better than he ever had over the other Republican who’s not a free stater. It had nothing to do with him being a free stater that he lost, it is simply the fact that independent chose blue this time around. Last night on the show I named all the free staters I personally know are out and proud who made it in, I should have counted but there are still like 12 in.
Are there 12 crypto libertarians in your state house outside of New Hampshire? No.
Justin Hart retweeted
This is silly.
Trump's immigration policies did not cost the GOP the midterms. Only 14% named it as their most important issue. ~47% of Republicans said it was critical to their vote (which generally means the administration didn't do enough), while only ~27% of Democrats said that immigration was critical to their vote.
And when it comes to border security and immigration enforcement, Republicans actually retained a slight edge on which party is better at handling immigration.
Republicans lost the midterms last week because of the high cost of living and public perception of the state of the U.S. economy, which all tie to the Iran War causing supply chain disruptions.
Exit polls consistently ranked the economy as the top issue (~39%) and the cost of living as a crucial or major factor for 89–90% of voters. 75–79% described the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” and large majorities of respondents linked higher-than-normal prices to Trump administration policies. Whether they are justified or not in feeling that way, that's what the data show. You can cry about it, you can whine about it, but those are the facts. And on my page, we deal with facts because I live in reality.
🔗members.rationalground.com/e…
Many conservatives (especially young American men) are tired of competing with foreigners (both legal and illegal) for jobs and housing. Most my friends (college age or slightly older) think Trump has been too soft on immigration enforcement. While the border is secured (a major success!), there are still ~20 million illegals here. Less than 1 million have been deported since the President took office on January 20, 2025, far short of his administration's 1 million / year goal.
Finally, Trump promised mass deportations. He said it in many campaign speeches. I even attached a video clip of him below stating that as soon as taking office, “We will begin the largest deportation operation in American history.” There are many such clips (just ask Grok to pull them up for ya).
Don't gaslight or lie to me.
I was born in the dark, but it wasn't last night.
Justin Hart retweeted
The first negative approval poll of Trump's economic performance was on March 8, 2025. This was 4 days after Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico took effect.
I believe you supported those tariffs at the time.
Justin Hart retweeted
Fertility is destiny. Mass immigration to compensate for declining birth rates is not an option.
We can’t sacrifice American culture on the altar of economic growth.
We need to get serious about incentives and policies that will help America get back to baby-making.
Justin Hart retweeted
I am listening to, or was listening to until I couldn't take it any more, NRO's The editors post-election episode. You all sound like radical environmentalists who argue whether human beings are solely responsible for global warming. Then one guy (the obvious Vanceguard guy who hates the Iran war, you all know who I mean) argues for that position and the others (again with one possible exception, you all probably know who I mean) gives lip service to some but not all of the other causal factors, but still lose the forest for the trees.
Get away from your microphones and look up Mill's methods (a topic in logic). Learn it. Live it. Love it. Then reassess your entire approach to what actually happened.
If you need a hint about the right way to think about the election and, accordingly, what needs to be done going forward, go back and read David Bahnsen's piece in NRO on the same topic. You don't even have to look outside your own organization; you published it.
Good grief, NRO podcast people. Learn how to make a good intellectual argument.
Democrats want to cap credit card rates at 10%. Sounds great. It's been tried.
Arkansas capped interest at 10% for more than a century. Stores moved across the line to Texas.
Illinois capped small loans in 2021. Loans to subprime borrowers fell 38%.
Chile cut its cap in 2013. Nearly 1 in 10 borrowers lost access to bank loans.
Kenya capped rates in 2016. Loan approvals fell from 50% to 34%. They repealed it.
A price cap on credit doesn't make credit cheaper. It makes it disappear for the people with the weakest credit.
