working towards better AI futures. AI safety at @snyksec. Organizing @lisbonai_. Data and capital at @capitalfactory. Prev: @gumroad @techcrunch @oreillymedia

Joined September 2006
Most things that cause me anxiety are coordination problems.
43
219
4
130
365,392
so real talk - if super intelligence is out of the running, what are we actually going to call it when it really is smarter than us?
3
1
587
wait, is @elonmusk's plan to colonize Mars to have us all simply drive up to the planet?
3
1,933
the newest version of the Claude desktop app is a significant step forward. Long-horizon task progress is easier to follow; the sidebar is much better; the terminal panes are *good*. The only thing I think adds friction than it is worth is forcing people to create environments under Code, but this looks like a stepping stone into promoting cloud environments a little harder. Great job, @bcherny and team.
2
5
1,998
Fred Oliveira 🧠 retweeted
25
370
25
11,015
111,280
Fred Oliveira 🧠 retweeted
the researchers at all the labs would tell you in private and sometimes in public that alignment has not been solved. if this is true, then racing into RSI is a folly that is unprecedented in world history. we will need to significantly slow the frontier of research very soon
141
334
82
3,258
438,199
My wife just asked me if the agent I keep talking about is called “Croc bot”, and I’ll be honest - I can’t wait for lunch to be done so I can go home and build *that*. With apologies to the @bot team.
3
7
2,326
Scott has had many paragraphs I like (of course). But this one, I love.
1
2
3,146
personal agents are such a crazy nerd snipe for a guy who has worked in personal productivity for a large % of his adult life
1
1
9
2,925
what David doesn't realize is that all my stressing comes from planning these
Replying to @jaivinwylde
sleep, stretch, meditate, walk, lift, cardio, if u do all of these it basically impossible to be stressed
2
8
2,488
holy crap we need more evals
JUST IN: Utah becomes the first U.S. state to allow AI to prescribe medication without direct doctor review.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Utah has approved a limited AI sandbox pilot (Nolla Health) allowing AI to prescribe certain low-risk acne medications after an initial phased review period. This is not unrestricted AI prescribing of any medication. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
1
3
2,102
opus was busy calibrating an old (and previously unused) line-us this morning
1
12
1,975
Fred Oliveira 🧠 retweeted
It is very cool that we have very capable systems that can do all kinds of socially and economically valuable stuff - but it is totally disqualifying that we lack the capacity to even *assess* whether they are dangerous (much less react appropriately). That just doesn’t cut it.
From the former Policy Frontiers Team Lead at OpenAI: She worked on testing AIs for dangerous capabilities, and warns we don’t really know how to do that. "The evaluations can't be comprehensive enough… the models can get smart enough to hide their capabilities." Rosie Campbell highlights competitive and cultural pressures she experienced inside a frontier AI company, and discusses her hopes and misgivings about pacing the frontier. "I assumed there would be a whole load of good arguments for why this isn't really something we need to worry about. There'd be answers to all of these concerns. And the more I read into it, the more I was kind of terrified at the lack of rebuttals to some of these arguments." "Over time, I feel like the organization changed a lot. The incentives changed. There was a lot more pressure to move fast to build commercial products. And a lot of the people who had been very motivated by these big picture safety concerns started leaving." "We're at a point where we don't understand what's going on with the systems. The rate of progress is kind of insane, and we need to make sure that our ability - to understand, control, deploy these systems safely - that keeps up with the capabilities of the systems themselves."
1
5
565
Don’t do this. Photoshop and premiere (and this comes from someone who has used both quite a bit) need to be taken behind the barn. Why decompile that instead of building it correctly?
How about someone starts decompiling Photoshop and Premiere Pro?
1
6
2,518
shocking that this is real, but also awesome that this is real
4
2,451
there's something to embodied agents. Seeing a face (Grok Bot, Dots, Muse) resonates with people. Some people crave lots of "creatureness", some people less. Some people are serious, some people less so. I think we'll see personal agents with "creatureness dials" soon.
2
1
11
2,359
Fred Oliveira 🧠 retweeted
A new paper was published this morning: 'What if Automating AI R&D Triggers an Intelligence Explosion.' Authors include Jakub Pachocki, Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, and Jack Clark. They say policymakers should demand more visibility into how far companies have already automated their own model development, and how close they are to RSI internally.
78
208
41
1,366
82,387
in case you missed @lisbonai_ this year, here's a quick 50sec video that hopefully shows you shouldn't miss the next one.
Two days, one room, builders showing the real thing. Thank you to everyone who made it. The full recap ↓
1
15
2,858
Fred Oliveira 🧠 retweeted
Amidst all the buzz about AI problems, let's work hard on building solutions. Here's an amazing technical roadmap: arxiv.org/abs/2608.14611
13
42
9
183
16,602
We’ve run the most comprehensive series of studies on expert AI forecasts over the last four years. Today, we’re sharing an interim update on our findings about the accuracy of these forecasts. Our major findings are: 1. Experts, including top economists, computer scientists, and biologists, have dramatically underestimated AI capabilities progress each year. Superforecasters have underestimated progress to an even greater extent. 2. Experts have a more mixed forecasting track record on AI diffusion-related measures, with some major underestimates (forecasting AI revenue) and other forecasts on track to be accurate (the share of electricity used for AI). 3. Some notable cases of overestimating AI progress: how much mid-2025 AI models could help amateurs do biorisk-relevant laboratory tasks; the speed of rollout of self-driving cars. 4. It is too soon to say how forecasters have performed at predicting macro-scale impact on outcomes such as GDP growth, major AI harms, and averted deaths from disease. More 🧵
4
93
26
351
51,572