Let me explain how this works. Since 2025, $ETH has been developing an almost exact replica of the structure we saw in 2022. The key difference is that the current structure is roughly 40% larger than the previous one. Based on the wave count and relative size, we can see that in the 2022 structure, the first major impulse delivered approximately +184%. In the current structure, the corresponding impulse reached around +258%, consistent with the larger scale of the pattern. After that, in 2022, we saw a relief-rally impulse of roughly +55% before the major bearish continuation. If the current structure is ~40% larger, the corresponding relief rally should also be approximately 40% larger: 55% × 1.40 ≈ 77% ETH has already rallied around 70%, which means we could still see one final impulse to complete the expected ~77% move. That points toward the $2,660 area. Once that level is reached, I expect my second swing sell entry to be filled. From there, the structure should transition into the major bearish phase, with my expected ETH bottom in the $500–$700 range.

$BTC I’ve also marked the same point across all four charts and within all four structures, highlighted by the circles. You can clearly see where BTC is currently positioned within the overall structure.

$BTC – Why the 2013–2015 Bear Market Matters Many people only count Bitcoin’s history from 2018, focusing on the last two cycles while ignoring more than 50% of its historical structure. This chart answers one of the most common questions I receive: How did Bitcoin have a 630-day bear market in 2013-2015, and why did it happen? It wasn’t a random event. That extended 630-day (1 year, 8 months, 21 days) bearish cycle created enough room for Bitcoin to build a strong long-term foundation before the next expansion. Without that reset, Bitcoin likely wouldn’t have had the structural space needed to continue making meaningful all-time highs, eventually reaching $126K. One historical detail that deserves much more attention is that Bitcoin’s long-term trend angle has been decreasing with every major cycle. Each expansion has become less steep than the previous one, suggesting that larger structural resets become increasingly important to maintain healthy long-term growth. This is why I believe the current market should be viewed through the lens of Bitcoin’s entire history—not just the last two cycles. If Bitcoin repeats a longer corrective structure similar to 2013-2015, it could once again create the foundation for future all-time highs. If, instead, the market only goes through another standard 1-year bear cycle, it may not generate enough room for another meaningful long-term expansion. Markets don’t have to repeat the exact same price action, but they often respect the same structural principles. Ignoring half of Bitcoin’s history because it doesn’t fit the popular narrative is not objective analysis. Understanding the complete structure provides a much deeper perspective on where Bitcoin may be heading next.