CEO @TheFuturumGroup @FuturumEquities | Co-Founder @TheSixFiveMedia & @Signal_65 | @Forbes @MarketWatch Contributor | 7x Best-Seller | Dad x3 | Disclosures👇
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Joined December 2010
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Our post management change base case for $NVDA based on current available data. (Supply chain edition)
—We don’t see a major supply chain unwind. It wouldn’t serve the ecosystem well and there are ~2 years of major data center construction underway. Very unlikely to see 10s of GW of NVIDIA based commits pivoting in this period.
—Multi-year risks are heightened, but we see that more based on any slips in roadmap execution. Steady increase in custom and AMD is in our model. Any shifts will happen gradually as supply chain component change in complex systems will be challenging.
—It is customary for relationships to drive deals in the semiconductor supply chain. Jensen was highly important to those deals but the idea that there aren’t other highly influential and important figures within NVIDIA is overstated.
—Next two years of execution with management changes will be critical to maintain strength of supply chain.
We just published our new multi-year base case for $NVDA following today's news of Jensen's departure.
Our Take:
- Sector ramp from 25.1GW shipped in 2026 to 58GW in 2028E.
- 2028E $AMD market share grows to 10% and $AVGO grows to 23%. NVIDIA drops to 41%
- NVIDIA will continue to realize ~63% of all revenue with its $/GW about 2x that of Broadcom and AMD.
Something that should be discussed more: How was this board constructed and how did it persist through trillions of dollars in market cap growth?
Was it a group of rubber stamps? No way this group could govern or provide useful guidance as it relates to policy, product engineering, or investments.
Pretty crazy the more I think about it. 👀
BREAKING: Elon Musk publicly questions the credibility of Nvidia's, $NVDA, board of directors amid the controversy surrounding Jensen Huang's departure as CEO.
"This is the board making decisions about what used to be the most valuable company on Earth!?" Musk said.
Nvidia's Board Members include:
1. Harvey Jones: Chairman, Square Wave Ventures
2. Stephen Neal: Former Chairman, Cooley LLP
3. Tench Coxe: Former Managing Director, Sutter Hill
4. John Dabiri: Professor, Caltech
5. Dawn Hudson: Former CMO, NFL
6. Melissa Lora: Former President, Taco Bell
7. Brooke Seawell: Partner, New Enterprise Associates
8. Aarti Shah: Former CIO, Eli Lilly
9. Mark Stevens: Managing Partner, S-Cubed Capital
10. Suzanne Nora Johnson: Former Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs
A petition to reinstate Jensen Huang is currently underway.
Daniel Newman retweeted
Stuff like this is so inflammatory. CEO and CFO having a disagreement? Happens every day.
Tough criticism and personal attacks among the executive ranks? Part of the job.
Weird how people think you build a $5 Trillion empire being a nice guy/gal.
In the world where Jensen was playing everyday was combat. Fighting with your execs and clients was just part of the job.
It was Colette's job to be the voice of risk/reason on big investments.
It was Jensen's job to charge through it and win.
That's all that happened here.
If there is one thing the Korean memory makers need right now… it is more pricing power. 🤪
Ahn Ki-hyun, Vice President of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, says that Jensen Huang's resignation could give memory makers more leverage in supply negotiations.
"It could actually be better for us," Ahn Ki-hyun, executive vice president of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, told The Korea Herald. "If another company fills the gap left by Nvidia, it will still need our HBM."
Ahn argued that Huang's personal relationships with Korean business leaders mattered less than Nvidia's reliance on a handful of memory suppliers.
"To change suppliers, Nvidia needs alternatives. But where are those alternatives?" he said.
"Instead of concentrating supply on one customer, we could spread it across several. That could actually be better for us," Ahn said.
Another official at a South Korean company with business ties to Nvidia expressed greater concern about projects Huang personally championed in AI factories, physical AI and robotics.
"What worries me more are the new businesses," the official told The Korea Herald, requesting anonymity. "Huang personally pushed some of these projects. The question is whether they can move forward at the same pace without him."
$NVDA $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY
I think this is a thoughtful and balanced view as to how the board should proceed. Many unknowns and a lot is at stake. Getting this right is paramount. 👏🏻
Stuff like this is so inflammatory. CEO and CFO having a disagreement? Happens every day.
Tough criticism and personal attacks among the executive ranks? Part of the job.
Weird how people think you build a $5 Trillion empire being a nice guy/gal.
In the world where Jensen was playing everyday was combat. Fighting with your execs and clients was just part of the job.
It was Colette's job to be the voice of risk/reason on big investments.
It was Jensen's job to charge through it and win.
That's all that happened here.
Rene is absolutely the most sensible choice here. He's done a great job of leading Arm since he took over. Remembering there is only 1 Jensen. The next CEO will look different, but Rene makes complete sense. $NVDA
Daniel Newman retweeted
$NVDA will be a different company without Jensen. However, the idea that companies like AMD or Broadcom will run away with it in the wake of this news is misguided. NVIDIA’s balance sheet, order book, ecosystem, and investments would take years to genuinely disrupt all while battling a company worth trillions. 👀
Daniel Newman retweeted
We just published our new multi-year base case for $NVDA following today's news of Jensen's departure.
Our Take:
- Sector ramp from 25.1GW shipped in 2026 to 58GW in 2028E.
- 2028E $AMD market share grows to 10% and $AVGO grows to 23%. NVIDIA drops to 41%
- NVIDIA will continue to realize ~63% of all revenue with its $/GW about 2x that of Broadcom and AMD.
After Jensen’s resignation yesterday, there are still many unknowns as to what’s next for $NVDA.
From a risk standpoint the China/Export situation will be the most important and has the most company wide risk. Did NVIDIA in any way give preference or turn an eye to advanced chips entering China?
From a business standpoint we see $NVDA share of AI accelerators in 2028 landing at ~41% and 60% of revenue. Its strong market position should remain and earnings would take a few years to meaningfully come down. 👀
$NVDA meteoric rise under Founder Jensen Huang. This should be his legacy. He built this…indiscretions aside.
The future for NVIDIA is much more opaque now.
Today, Jensen Huang announced he is stepping down as CEO of Nvidia.
He founded $NVDA when he was 30 years old to transform gaming by making powerful 3D graphics accessible to everyone.
33 years later, it is now the backbone of the AI revolution, worth over $4,000,000,000,000
$NVDA will be a different company without Jensen. However, the idea that companies like AMD or Broadcom will run away with it in the wake of this news is misguided. NVIDIA’s balance sheet, order book, ecosystem, and investments would take years to genuinely disrupt all while battling a company worth trillions. 👀
We just published our new multi-year base case for $NVDA following today's news of Jensen's departure.
Our Take:
- Sector ramp from 25.1GW shipped in 2026 to 58GW in 2028E.
- 2028E $AMD market share grows to 10% and $AVGO grows to 23%. NVIDIA drops to 41%
- NVIDIA will continue to realize ~63% of all revenue with its $/GW about 2x that of Broadcom and AMD.
$AMAT is one of the quiet leading indicators of structural demand for AI and semiconductors.
Another beat and raise quarter where everything from revenue to margins rose.
Prints like these are better demand signal than most of the AI doom you can consume around here. 👏
APPLIED MATERIALS $AMAT Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $10.41B (Est. $10.3B) 🟢; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.16 (Est. $4.05) 🟢; +92% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 50.6% (Est. 50.45%) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Income: $3.68B (Est. $3.62B) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP FCF: $2.6B (Est. $2.26B) 🟢
Q1 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $11.10B +/- $500M (Est. $10.89B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.35 +/- $0.20 (Est. $4.26) 🟢
Fiscal 2026:
🔹 Revenue: $34.45B; +21% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $12.89; +37% YoY
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 Semiconductor Systems: $8.0B; +64% YoY
🔹 Applied Global Services: $1.9B; +26% YoY
🔹 Display / Corporate and Other: $517M; +25% YoY
Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 GAAP Gross Margin: 50.4%; +240 bps YoY
🔹 GAAP EPS: $3.40; +43% YoY
🔹 Cash From Operations: $3.3B
🔹 Shareholder Distributions: $2.42B, incl. $2.00B buybacks and $421M dividends
Comments:
🔸 “AI continues to fuel strong incremental demand for semiconductors and Applied has built the most-enabling portfolio to advance the AI-computing roadmap, putting us in a great position for multi-year revenue and profit growth.”
Daniel Newman retweeted
$NVDA will survive no matter what happens. But if Jensen is out it will be a very different company going forward. It will need its own Tim Cook.
U.S. leads in AI because we build the best systems and deploy them in data centers in the U.S.
AI = GPD Growth. U.S. winning AI is not trivial. We need to keep piling on to our advantage here.
Not surprising. The employees valued his vision and leadership. They know the path forward without him will be more difficult. 👀
A new era at $NVDA starts today. Colette Kress has always impressed me in our conversations. The long term replacement will likely be much more of an operations centric leadership team. Focused on maniacal execution. More of what Tim Cook was to Steve Jobs. There is no replacing Jensen.
$NVDA will survive no matter what happens. But if Jensen is out it will be a very different company going forward. It will need its own Tim Cook.