Self taught analyst not financial advisor. Weekly newsletter focusing on macro and Web3. Get my insights here - https://xitter.cf/t.co/ylxI5RBk6o
Joined August 2013
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Hello Fam,
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CryptoInsightUK
Everything I share is for information and education only and is not financial advice.
Original tweet - xitter.cf/Cryptoinsightuk/status…
I've actually just opened a short on ETH.
This is mainly for technical reasons.
If we look at ETH in the second image, we can see that on the hourly timeframe, we're creating a bearish divergence, with a higher high on the hourly RSI and a lower high in price action.
This is happening as we push back into our first major area of resistance.
Now, I'm not going to say this is a guaranteed trade. It definitely isn't.
There's an argument to suggest that ETH could squeeze higher here. In fact, I think we could potentially push all the way back up towards $2,700 and still maintain a bearish argument.
That would stop me out, though, as my stop loss is very tight on this trade.
The reason I've taken it is that I think there's a very attractive risk to reward opportunity on a potential pullback towards $2,200.
If we look at the liquidity pools, there's significant liquidity sitting below us. When we see a buildup of liquidity like this, it's often nice to see those levels get tapped before a continuation higher.
Looking at the recent structure, ETH experienced a pullback on Wednesday and Thursday last week.
Since then, we've been recovering, but the recovery has come on lower volume, with relatively choppy candles.
To me, this looks more corrective than impulsive.
If we consider the possibility that ETH has completed a five wave move to the upside, we could now be working through an ABC correction.
We've potentially seen the A leg lower, the B leg recovery, and I'm looking for a C leg down towards the liquidity below us.
That could complete the correction and potentially allow ETH to continue higher afterwards.
You could also argue that we've deviated above the range highs, and we could now come down, deviate below the range lows, and then continue higher.
With everything happening in the world right now, putting significant conviction into any one outcome is difficult.
But there are several technical factors lining up here that I think make this an attractive opportunity.
We have:
Hourly bearish divergence at resistance.
A recovery on declining volume that looks corrective.
Significant liquidity resting below current prices.
A potential ABC correction that still needs its final leg.
The possibility of a range high deviation followed by a sweep of the lows.
All of these factors combined make me think the risk to reward is attractive enough to take the trade.
I'm targeting roughly $2,200, with a tight stop loss and approximately a 9:1 risk to reward ratio.
That doesn't mean I think the trade is guaranteed to work.
It simply means I think the potential reward significantly outweighs the risk at this particular entry.
And that's why I've taken the short.
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This is exactly the discussion we need to be having.
The success of the XRPL and sustained demand for XRP are two different things.
The infrastructure is being built. The real question is how much of that activity will actually translate into demand for XRP itself.
That’s what we need to start measuring, not just assuming.
Great thread. 👏
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One thing I think a lot of people, including ripple:native holders, are fundamentally misunderstanding is what the XRP Ledger is actually being developed to do.
And I think the proposed Lending Protocol is a perfect example of this.
I've been discussing for years now how I think the global financial system is going to change quite significantly, and I don't necessarily think that means the institutions we have today are going to disappear.
I actually think it's quite the opposite.
Let me explain. 🧵
But here's what I find particularly interesting.
If you look at the direction that the XRP Ledger is developing in, we're not simply talking about payments anymore.
We're talking about issued assets, stablecoins, exchange infrastructure, tokenisation and potentially lending.
And if you think, as I do, that the global financial system is going to become increasingly integrated with blockchain technology, I think you have to start looking at which networks are actually building the infrastructure to facilitate that transition.
Not just which cryptocurrency has the best narrative on social media.
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And this is why I think people spend far too much time discussing whether XRP is going to $5, $10 or $20, and not nearly enough time understanding what is actually being developed.
Because ultimately, if the XRP Ledger becomes a significant part of global financial infrastructure, the next question is how much of that activity creates demand for XRP itself.
And I think that's a much more interesting discussion than trying to predict tomorrow's price action.
I've been invested in XRP since 2017, and my conviction has never simply been based on the idea that banks are going to wake up one morning and start buying enormous amounts of XRP.
It's based on the possibility that the infrastructure underpinning global finance is going to change significantly.
And that XRP could become an important asset within that infrastructure.
Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.
But I think the developments we're seeing on the XRP Ledger are making that discussion increasingly relevant.
And that's why I'm paying attention.
@XRPLF
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