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Brad Gerstner (@altcap) joined the @theallinpod for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of AI.
They cover:
→ Can AI revenue support the massive CapEx buildout?
→ The gigawatt gap and power constraints
→ Why semis could take a larger share of the Nasdaq
→ AI’s impact on hiring and the workforce
→ Regulation, rates and other risks ahead
→ Trump Accounts and “Every Child a Capitalist”
Watch the full conversation 👇
All-In Summit: Brad Gerstner
-- Who’s Paying for AI CapEx?
-- Semis Eat the Nasdaq
-- Not Firing, Just Not Hiring
-- The Gigawatt Gap
++ much more!
(0:00) Welcome @altcap
(1:01) Trump Accounts, Every Child a Capitalist & The CAC Scan
(5:07) Can AI revenue pay for the CapEx?
(8:53) The Build Out Issue: Gigawatts, TAM, Token Growth, and Margin Expansion
(12:30) The risks: AI regulation, the nuclear precedent, power limits, and rising rates
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Asked for his favorite AI use case, @karpathy: give a model an arbitrary topic, ask for a one hour video explainer, walk away, come back 10 hours later to a finished hour of video.
“why would you read text? Reading text is prehistoric. Just get it to make a video.” 🎥
Altimeter Capital retweeted
I built an AV fleet tracker. Every robotaxi argument hits the same wall: it needs a fleet number, and every source gives a different one. So I went bottoms up. TX DMV VIN registry + CA CPUC filings + every press release and news story I could crawl, cross-referenced into one number.
🤖 5,574 autonomous vehicles operating or testing in the U.S. right now.
@Waymo is 4,252 of them. That's 76% of every robotaxi in the country. $TSLA is second at 621, @Avrideai third at 344. Everyone else is a rounding error, for now.
Texas is the real story. California still leads at 2,153, but Texas is right behind at 1,896, and it's the only state with a VIN-level public registry. Under SB 2807 every car has to be listed on a TxDMV authorization. The tracker crawls it daily, so when Tesla adds Cybercabs they show up immediately.
Also on the site: every Waymo CPUC filing for California in one place through Q2 2026 (trips, passengers, miles, deadhead %), a searchable AV news feed that links straight to the sources, and a map of fleet per 100k people. Early days on that last one, but give it 12 to 24 months. We don't have formal numbers on @nuro but should in the CPUC Q3 update.
Caveat: the numbers aren't perfect. They include test cars, safety-monitor cars, and cars registered but not yet deployed. It's my best attempt at ground truth, if you see something wrong, let me know.
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Next up on First Pass: A conversation with @adijayaprakash from @useblacksmith
Everyone knows about the GPU crunch, but the CPU crunch is getting equally painful. In this episode we talk about the nuances of CPU clouds and how agents are driving a surge of CPU demand
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Energy is upstream of prosperity.
Nuclear is foundational to energy abundance.
@generalmatter is building the enrichment capacity to scale nuclear.
America needs to build again.
@ScottNolan @generalmatter is rebuilding a safe and clean nuclear fuel supply chain here at home.
energy is national security and we @antifund @geoffwoo are proud investors and backers of Scott & General Matter on leading the way
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Ian Buck (NVDA) and Sachin Katti (OpenAI) at AI Infra Summit:
Astra on Vera Rubin: Recursive Optimization
- OpenAI took a Blackwell-optimized Astra checkpoint, ran it on Rubin w/ minor modifications
- Out of box: 3x throughput improvement
- Then ran Astra as agent to optimize its own inference on Rubin chips
- Over 72 hours, the model produced an additional 2x throughput improvement
- Work that previously took weeks / mos completed over weekend
Altimeter Capital retweeted
was back at @ycombinator for S26 alumni demo day last week! couple things stood out:
1. Bar for hiring becoming a lot higher. Most companies don't see growth as gated by headcount, so they're hiring less and paying each hire more (3-5% vs. ~1% equity a few years ago)
2. So many founders are building AI infra hardware that there's talk of YC negotiating bulk fab allocation on behalf of future batches. Could be a huge differentiator for founders. Definitely a sign of the times...
3. Most companies I met are building on OAI rails. Seemed mostly driven by OAI's generous startup deal: $500K of free credits, plus an offer to invest 7 figures, paid in credits rather than cash. Still TBD how sticky those workloads are.
4. Defense tech was the most apparent theme. I think more founders were selling to the Ukrainian ministry of defense than to consumers (cc @lacker)
5. Founders with progress taking advantage of a hot market. First time I've seen tranched seed rounds coming out of YC!
YC has done a great job reinventing itself for the biggest themes today arond hardware / AI / reindustrialization. Congrats to all the s26 founders on a killer batch.
Altimeter Capital retweeted
From clean sheet to major production order in <4 years.
Special.
Incredible milestone for @Castelion and @USNavy in fielding hypersonics at scale.
Blackbeard is going into production. The U.S. Navy has awarded Castelion a production order valued at up to $200 million for an initial lot of Blackbeard Hypersonic Weapons, following the 50 EOC rounds ordered in June. Engineered from day one for the production line. Grateful to PAE(A) for the trust and the urgency. castelion.com/news/blackbear…
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Very well written post from Dario. The US must dominate in AI. And we must do it responsibly.
In 1957 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was formed. The IAEA stemmed from President Eisenhower's 1953 "Atoms for Peace" proposal.
In very over simplified simple terms, the IAEA purpose was to ensure safe use of nuclear technology across the world. Verify that where uranium was being enriched, the enrichment levels were enough for energy but not enough to make a bomb (low single digit percentages not 90%). What could be used for good (energy) could also be used for bad (bombs). We needed a global institution to help ensure the bad uses weren't happening. Failure would be blocking this technology from being used for good....
They did this with specialized tools and site visits, forensic investigations, and ongoing monitoring solutions
Doesn't sound too different from what Dario is proposing with Embedded Evaluators! Independent third party actors with desks in their office, company laptops, access to company workspaces, etc
Back to the nuclear analogy. Fast forward to the late 70's / early 80's and the United States canceled the development of 100+ nuclear reactors (Three Mile Island partial meltdown in '79 caused a lot of the fear). What's important though is the IAEA didn't shut down development, fear did. The US then went 30+ years before building a new one.
As @altcap discussed on CNBC yesterday, what's important is having balanced discussions about the risks. We don't need hyperbolic hypothetical statements that drive fear. The Hugging Face incident kick started fear, just like the Three Mile Island incident did in 1979. Too much fear (without balanced discussion) will lead the US AI's dominance to the same fate it's nuclear dominance fell to
The US is now paying for the reactor freeze from the late 70's. Our energy dominance is diminishing. We're seeing a huge power crunch. While we paused, other countries marched on with reactor development. Unfortunately, China and Russia particularly. France is also a gold example, with well over 50% of their electricity today from atomic energy.
The full circle irony - Three Mile Island is now being re-opened and redeveloped for AI data centers. The "Hugging Face incident" of the nuclear era is now coming back for AI.
We can't let fear grip us and force a similar pause in AI. And I think it's important to point out Dario isn't asking for a pause. He's asking for responsible pacing. These are different. The IAEA didn't cause a pause. Embedded Evaluators similarly won't be the reason we stop building data centers. I thought Dario's post was well written and balanced.
However, we can't fall into a cascading fear loop. This is what our adversaries want (look who's now dominating nuclear while we play catch up...)
It's imperative that the discussions around the risk are grounded in reality and good faith. Dario's essay is a great step
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Altimeter Capital retweeted
While we must protect AI competition, this is an important step forward in finding the right balance between speed, self regulation & safety. It sounds very similar to calls we have heard from @elonmusk, @sama & @demishassabis. I hope it leads to more joint dialogue on how to win the global AI race while ensuring AI is truth seeking & maximally beneficial for humanity. 🙏
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
Asked about Treasury Secretary Bessent saying AI companies have done a horrendous job explaining themselves, Brad Gerstner (@altcap) agreed and connected it to why @InvestAmerica24 exists.
"We have to get everybody into the game of capitalism. They all have to share in the upside of AI."
9 million capital accounts created so far, with a path to all 70 million kids under 18.
Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC) pointed to AI leaders publicly warning about the technology they are building. Brad Gerstner (@altcap) said that is the point, and it started a decade ago.
"America's leaders, starting with @elonmusk back in 2016, said this will be the most positive thing we can ever build for humanity, but we have to do it safely. We've been having this conversation in Silicon Valley for a decade."
Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC) pointed to AI leaders publicly warning about the technology they are building. Brad Gerstner (@altcap) said that is the point, and it started a decade ago.
"America's leaders, starting with @elonmusk back in 2016, said this will be the most positive thing we can ever build for humanity, but we have to do it safely. We've been having this conversation in Silicon Valley for a decade."
Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC) opened by asking Brad Gerstner (@altcap) about the week's AI safety debate. Brad said the conversation is a decade old, nothing in it was new, and the coverage ignored the guardrails already in place.
"I've not talked to a single person in AI who says full steam ahead, disregard safety. It turns out we all care about kids."
On what is already happening: lab safety systems built with serious money and compute, deep coordination with national security, and public transparency reporting.
Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC) opened by asking Brad Gerstner (@altcap) about the week's AI safety debate. Brad said the conversation is a decade old, nothing in it was new, and the coverage ignored the guardrails already in place.
"I've not talked to a single person in AI who says full steam ahead, disregard safety. It turns out we all care about kids."
On what is already happening: lab safety systems built with serious money and compute, deep coordination with national security, and public transparency reporting.
Replying to @CNBC
@CNBC Halftime Report with Altimeter founder & CEO Brad Gerstner (@altcap) and Scott Wapner (@TheJudgeCNBC) | September 11, 2026
On this week's AI safety debate, here are Brad’s views:
> No one in AI is saying full steam ahead, disregard safety. More time and energy has gone into safety ahead of this technology than any prior cycle in 25 years
> The guardrails already exist: lab safety systems, national security coordination, transparency reporting, and a frontier model framework that scrutinizes models before public release
> There is risk in the alternative. We shut down 67 nuclear reactors over fears that never materialized. China is building 100 fission reactors
📽️: youtube.com/watch?si=3FN5IdW…
Altimeter Capital retweeted
This is the future, @attestable will usher it in! Zero knowledge proofs are about to become mainstream and very important in the AI domain
nytimes.com/2026/09/08/scien…
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Peace through strength. 🇺🇸🚀
Today, Covenant is emerging from stealth and introducing Anthem: a heavy-payload deep precision strike capability designed for mass production, with deliveries beginning in the thousands in 2027.
We’ve raised $250 million, flown Anthem in more than 200 tests, and secured approximately $150 million in orders, including contracts with the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and key international allies.
We’re building Anthem at our 105,000-square-foot production facility in Dallas, alongside factories in Germany and Israel.
Covenant is backed by @a16z, @foundersfund, @Lux_Capital, @lightspeedvp, @8vc, @aleph, and @AltimeterCap.
Deep precision strike is the biggest gap in the arsenal of the West, and we spent the last two years building Anthem to fill it.
Now we deliver at scale.
Today, our portfolio company @HQ_Covenant emerges from stealth.
Excited for the team and our Partner Erik @ekriessmann, who led Altimeter’s investment.
Covenant is building Anthem, a deep precision strike capability designed for mass production and delivery at scale.
Our entire firm is proud to support Michael (@KaufmanMic), Abby Denburg, and the entire Covenant team on their important mission.🚀
Today, Covenant is emerging from stealth and introducing Anthem: a heavy-payload deep precision strike capability designed for mass production, with deliveries beginning in the thousands in 2027.
We’ve raised $250 million, flown Anthem in more than 200 tests, and secured approximately $150 million in orders, including contracts with the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and key international allies.
We’re building Anthem at our 105,000-square-foot production facility in Dallas, alongside factories in Germany and Israel.
Covenant is backed by @a16z, @foundersfund, @Lux_Capital, @lightspeedvp, @8vc, @aleph, and @AltimeterCap.
Deep precision strike is the biggest gap in the arsenal of the West, and we spent the last two years building Anthem to fill it.
Now we deliver at scale.
Altimeter Capital retweeted
Excited for Altimeter portfolio company @HQ_Covenant to emerge from stealth with $250m in funding and ~$150m in orders.
Deep precision strike is one of the most critical capability gaps facing the West.
Covenant has built Anthem to close that gap and meet the need for long-range, heavy payloads, precision, and mass production.
Proud to back Michael and the truly special Covenant team as they bring Anthem to the world.
Today, Covenant is emerging from stealth and introducing Anthem: a heavy-payload deep precision strike capability designed for mass production, with deliveries beginning in the thousands in 2027.
We’ve raised $250 million, flown Anthem in more than 200 tests, and secured approximately $150 million in orders, including contracts with the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and key international allies.
We’re building Anthem at our 105,000-square-foot production facility in Dallas, alongside factories in Germany and Israel.
Covenant is backed by @a16z, @foundersfund, @Lux_Capital, @lightspeedvp, @8vc, @aleph, and @AltimeterCap.
Deep precision strike is the biggest gap in the arsenal of the West, and we spent the last two years building Anthem to fill it.
Now we deliver at scale.